UL Monroe Warhawks at Northwestern Wildcats Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC The UL Monroe Warhawks (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) and the Northwestern Wildcats (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten) square off Saturday afternoon in Evanston. Northwestern is listed as an 11.5-point home favorite, while the total sits at 41. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EST.
UL Monroe will be looking to continue its surprising start, winning three of its first four games, including a conference win over Arkansas State. Northwestern has been inconsistent, most recently knocking off UCLA at home in a defensive battle.
Keep reading to see our UL Monroe vs. Northwestern prediction, and check out all of our best NCAAF Predictions!
Run game driving success
The ULM Warhawks are off to a 3-1 start behind a physical ground attack that ranks No. 22 nationally at 217.8 yards per game. Braylon McReynolds leads the way with 317 rushing yards, while quarterback Aidan Armenta has completed 58.4% of his passes for 444 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. McReynolds is a transfer from South Alabama, while Dorian Lewis, who averages 9.4 yards per carry, transferred from New Mexico. The offense averages 341.2 yards per game (105th) and 213.2 yards per game rushing (22nd).
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Defensively, ULM has been solid against the run, giving up just 85.8 yards per game to rank 16th, but the secondary remains vulnerable, surrendering nearly 280 passing yards per contest. They were humbled in Week 2 by Alabama in a 73-0 loss but have bounced back with two straight wins, including a 31-25 win at UTEP, and a 28-16 victory over Arkansas State last week.
Defense shining
Northwestern is 2-2 after beating UCLA last week, winning 17-14 as a 6.5-point favorite. That came after a 34-14 loss to Oregon. Before that win over UCLA, who had just fired their head coach Deshaun Foster, the Wildcats' only win came against FCS Western Illinois (42-7) on Sept. 5. The Wildcats’ defense has quietly been one of the best in the Big Ten, ranking 20th nationally in passing yards allowed (159.8 per game) while giving up just 19.5 points per contest.
Offensively, Northwestern has struggled, scoring only 19 points per game and ranking 122nd in the country with only 288 yards of total offense per game. Quarterback Preston Stone has 656 passing yards with four touchdowns, but has already thrown six interceptions. Caleb Komolafe has been the bright spot in the rushing attack with 269 yards and two scores, which includes running for 119 yards and a touchdown in last week's win over UCLA.
UL Monroe vs. Northwestern Predictions
Spread Pick for ULM vs. Northwestern
- UL Monroe +11.5 (3 units)
UL Monroe is balanced enough offensively to keep this one competitive, especially against a Northwestern team that struggles to separate from opponents. The Wildcats are strong on defense, but their offensive production is not reliable enough to comfortably cover a spread this size. ULM’s run game is good enough to shorten the game and keep it close. The Warhawks will also be more motivated to face a Big Ten team, while the Wildcats could have a letdown.
Take UL Monroe to cover.
Total Prediction for UL Monroe vs. Northwestern
- Under 41 ( 5 units)
Finding offense will be the challenge. Northwestern has played to the under in 8 of its last 12 non-conference games, and UL Monroe has gone 5-9-1 over/under in non-conference games during that same span.
Both teams are in the bottom 25 nationally in scoring offense, with Northwestern averaging 19.0 points and UL Monroe averaging 22.0. The Wildcats’ defense is strong enough to slow ULM’s ground attack, while Northwestern’s own offensive limitations point to a low-scoring grind.
I don't see where many points will come from. Take the under.
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