ULM vs Texas State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 22, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the UL Monroe Warhawks (3-7, 1-5 Sun Belt) play a Sun Belt Conference game on the road against the Texas State Bobcats (4-6, 1-5 Sun Belt). UL Monroe lost to South Alabama 26-14 last Saturday and has lost six straight. The Warhawks cannot become bowl eligible with just three wins and two games remaining. Texas State defeated Southern Miss 41-14 last Saturday. Texas State can become bowl eligible by beating UL Monroe on Saturday and South Alabama next week in the season’s final game. Make sure to read this in-depth UL Monroe Warhawks vs Texas State Bobcats prediction. Elevate your game with our expert NCAAF picks for UL Monroe (ULM) vs. Texas State prediction and win big!
UL Monroe is playing extremely poorly on both sides of the line
The UL Monroe Warhawks are 132nd in scoring, averaging 15.8 points per game. UL Monroe is 71st in rushing yards and 129th in passing yards per game, averaging 303.8 yards of total offense, which is 129th. The UL Monroe defense is 119th in points allowed at 32.2 points per game. The defense is 73rd in rushing yards allowed and 88th in passing yards allowed per game. The Warhawks allow an average of 384.8 yards per game, which is 78th.
UL Monroe quarterback Aidan Armenta has 1,152 yards passing with nine touchdowns and 8 interceptions, completing 56.1% of his passes. Braylon McReynolds leads all running backs for UL Monroe with 539 yards and three touchdowns, while Zach Palmer-Smith is second with 466 yards rushing and two touchdowns. The leading receiver is Jonathan Bibbs with 278 yards, two touchdowns, and an average of 12.6 yards per reception. Linebacker Noah Flemmings is the leading tackler with 60 and also has three quarterback sacks. The UL Monroe defense has made 22 sacks and intercepted 15 passes.
Injuries: ULM has five players listed as questionable, one player as doubtful, one player as probable, and 10 players listed as out. Two of the Warhawks' kickers are out.
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Texas State’s offense is very strong, but its defense is just the opposite
The Texas State Bobcats are 23rd in scoring, averaging 35.3 points per game. The offense is 16th in rushing yards and 45th in passing yards per game, for 474.4 yards of total offense per game, which is 14th. The defense is 124th in points allowed at 32.7 points per game. The Bobcats are 99th in rushing yards allowed and 97th in passing yards allowed for a total of 412 yards per game, which is 106th.
Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson has thrown for 2,568 yards with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. Lincoln Pare leads on rushers with 855 yards, 11 touchdowns, and an average of 5.3 yards per carry. The leading receiver is Beau Sparks with 980 yards, seven touchdown receptions, and an average of 14.7 yards per reception. Linebacker Treyline Payne is the leading tackler with 89, which is 25 more than any other teammate. Texas State has made 19 quarterback sacks and intercepted seven passes.
Injuries: Texas State does not have any players on its injury report, but DL Tymere Jackson is suspended for the game.
Texas State vs. Ul Monroe (ULM) Pick
Spread Pick for Texas State vs. Ul Monroe (ULM)
- Texas State Bobcats -20 (5 units)
The Texas State Bobcats will have almost a three-touchdown spread to cover, but should not have any problem doing so against a very weak UL Monroe team on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The Warhawks are scoring just 15.8 points per game and allowing more than twice as much at 32.2 points per game. Texas State's strength is its running game, which averages 216.3 yards per game, and faces a UL Monroe defense that allows 150.8 yards per game, which is 73rd. UL Monroe has several players on both the offense and defense who are out, and although most are not skill position players, it will affect the Warhawks in this matchup. UL Monroe has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games and in four of the last five games against Texas State. Texas State has covered the spread in five of its last seven games played in November. The Bobcats are coming off a big victory over Southern Miss, who is first in the West Division of the Sun Belt Conference, and the Bobcats know that with a win on Saturday, they could qualify for a bowl by defeating South Alabama the following week.
Over/Under Pick for Texas State vs. Ul Monroe (ULM)
- Under 58.5 ( units)
The Texas State Bobcats will score their share of points and more, but UL Monroe will have a problem scoring enough points to push the total over. The total has finished under in five of the last six games that UL Monroe has played on the road against Texas State. The total has also finished under in five of the last seven games overall between UL Monroe and Texas State. Texas State will use its powerful running game to create long, sustained drives, which will eat time off the clock, thereby creating fewer possessions for each team and fewer points scored.
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