UNLV Rebels vs Boise State Broncos Prediction and Picks - October 18, 2025

Mountain West Conference College football action on Saturday afternoon, and we have an UNLV vs Boise State Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Rebels come in a sizzling 6-0 on the year and are off a 51-48 home win over Air Force. Boise State is now at 4-2 on the year after topping New Mexico at home by a score of 41-25. Continue reading to see our UNLV vs Boise State prediction.

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The Rebels Look To Remain Perfect

UNLV enters Week 8 undefeated and riding high after a 51–48 shootout win over Air Force. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has been electric, throwing for 1,403 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 323 yards and 3 scores. The Rebels rank 19th nationally in scoring at 38.2 points per game, and average 442.3 total yards, including 199.7 rushing and 242.7 passing. Running back Jai’Den Thomas leads the ground game with 577 yards and 6 touchdowns, while wideout Jaden Bradley has posted 493 receiving yards and 2 scores.

Offensively, UNLV is explosive and balanced, averaging 6.9 yards per play and converting 48.6% of third downs (22nd nationally). They’ve scored 29 touchdowns and rank 2nd in turnover margin at +9, with just 5 giveaways all season. However, penalties have been a concern, with the Rebels averaging 82.2 yards per game, ranking 134th nationally. Their red zone offense converts 89.3% of trips into points, and Colandrea’s dual-threat ability has been a nightmare for defenses. If the Rebels can protect the ball and avoid drive-killing flags, they have the firepower to challenge Boise State on the road.

Defensively, UNLV has struggled, allowing 445.0 yards and 29.7 points per game, ranking 125th and 111th nationally. The pass defense gives up 255.2 yards per game, and the run defense allows 189.8 yards, both bottom-15 marks nationally. However, they’ve forced 14 turnovers and recorded 9 interceptions, led by defensive backs Aamaris Brown and Marsel McDuffie. The red zone defense has been shaky, and opponents have averaged 5.6 yards per carry. UNLV’s aggressive offense often puts the defense in high-possession games, and they’ll need timely stops to stay unbeaten.

Boise Has An Easy Win Vs New Mexico

Boise State enters Saturday with momentum after a 41–25 win over New Mexico, and they’ve won 14 straight home games, the fourth-longest active streak in the nation. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown for 1,570 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, completing 61.3% of his passes. The Broncos rank 22nd nationally in total offense at 465.3 yards per game, including 274.5 passing and 190.8 rushing. Running back Dylan Riley leads the ground game with 494 yards and 5 touchdowns, while wideouts Ben Ford and Chris Marshall have combined for 643 receiving yards and 6 scores.

Offensively, Boise State is efficient and aggressive, averaging 33.7 points per game and converting 46.2% of third downs. They’ve attempted 20 fourth-down conversions, ranking top-5 nationally, and have converted 55% of them. The Broncos have committed 8 turnovers and average 72.7 penalty yards per game, ranking 123rd nationally. Their red zone offense has been solid, and Madsen’s ability to extend plays has kept drives alive. If Boise State can control tempo and capitalize on UNLV’s defensive gaps, they’re built to cover and win at home.

Defensively, the Broncos allow 328.8 yards and 25.3 points per game, ranking 43rd and 74th nationally. The pass defense is strong, giving up just 185.5 yards per game (32nd), while the run defense allows 143.3 yards. They’ve forced 10 turnovers, including 7 interceptions, and rank top-30 in defensive efficiency. Defensive linemen Braxton Fely and Jayden Virgin have combined for 7 sacks, and safety Ty Benefield leads the team with 44 tackles and 2 interceptions. Boise State’s red zone defense is a weakness, allowing scores on 95.2% of trips (127th nationally), which could be exploited by Colandrea’s mobility.

UNLV vs Boise State Pick

UNLV vs Boise State Spread Pick

• Boise State -12.5 (5 Units)

Boise State -12.5 is a strong play at home, where the Broncos have won 14 straight and consistently dominate with tempo and physicality. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown for over 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns, leading an offense that ranks 22nd nationally in total yardage and converts nearly 46% of third downs. UNLV’s defense has been porous, allowing 445.0 yards and 29.7 points per game, with bottom-15 rankings against both the run and pass. If Boise State establishes the ground game early and forces UNLV into a shootout, they’re built to pull away and cover.

Defensively, Boise State has the edge in discipline and structure. The Broncos allow just 328.8 yards per game, and their secondary ranks top-35 nationally, giving up only 185.5 passing yards. UNLV’s explosive offense is offset by a defense that’s allowed 5.6 yards per carry and ranks near the bottom in red zone stops. Boise State’s pressure packages and home-field advantage should disrupt Anthony Colandrea’s rhythm, especially if the Rebels fall behind early. With a more complete roster and a proven home track record, Boise State -12.5 is well-positioned to cash.

UNLV vs Boise State Over/Under Pick

• Over 62.5 (4 Units)

Over 62.5 is a strong angle in a matchup featuring two explosive offenses and a UNLV defense that’s consistently been gashed. The Rebels average 38.2 points per game and rank top-20 nationally in yards per play, while Boise State puts up 33.7 points and thrives at home with a balanced, up-tempo attack. UNLV’s defense allows nearly 450 yards per game, including 5.6 yards per carry, and Boise’s red zone defense ranks 127th, giving Colandrea and company plenty of scoring chances. With both teams capable of quick strikes and long drives, this one has shootout written all over it.

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