USC Trojans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction and Picks - October 18, 2025
Use Code WWWC College football action on Saturday evening, and we have a USC vs Notre Dame Prediction ready to rock and roll. The USC Trojans come in off a 31-13 home win over Washington to move to 5-1 on the Year. The Irish come in off a 36-7 home win over NC State to move to 4-2 on the year. Notre Dame has won 6 of the last 7 in this series. Read on to see our USC vs Notre Dame prediction.
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Trojans Blast Wolverines At Home
USC enters Week 8 with one of the most explosive offenses in college football, averaging 552.3 total yards and 45.5 points per game, both top-three nationally. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has been electric, completing 71.9% of his passes for 1,852 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions, while adding 4 rushing scores. Wideout Makai Lemon leads the receiving corps with 682 yards and 6 touchdowns, while Ja’Kobi Lane and Lake McRee add depth with a combined 602 yards and 3 scores. USC’s offense ranks first in yards per play (8.3) and second in passing offense, with a balanced run game that averages 226.5 yards per contest.
The Trojans have leaned on a deep backfield, but injuries have reshaped the rotation. Star backs Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders are sidelined, leaving freshman King Miller to carry the load. Miller stepped up with 158 yards and a touchdown against Michigan, and has totaled 310 rushing yards on just 29 carries this season. USC converts 55.2% of third downs and 93.9% of red zone trips, ranking top-five nationally in both categories. With elite efficiency and explosive playmakers, USC’s offense is built to challenge any defense—especially one vulnerable to deep shots.
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Defensively, USC has been inconsistent but opportunistic. The Trojans allow 21.3 points per game and 352.2 total yards, including 243.7 passing yards, ranking 102nd nationally. Safety Bishop Fitzgerald has been a standout, recording 5 interceptions, 30 tackles, and 1 sack, while linebacker Eric Gentry leads the team with 41 tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. USC has forced 11 turnovers and ranks 29th in success rate, but has struggled in coverage and allowed big plays against Illinois and Michigan. If the front seven can pressure CJ Carr and contain Notre Dame’s run game, USC has the firepower to keep this close.
The Irish Have Won Four In A Row
Notre Dame returns home riding a four-game win streak, including a dominant 36–7 win over NC State. Quarterback CJ Carr has settled in, throwing for 1,622 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while completing 66.5% of his passes. The Irish average 465.5 total yards and 40.0 points per game, ranking top-15 nationally in both categories. Carr’s top targets include Jordan Faison (376 yards, 2 TDs) and Malachi Fields (339 yards, 2 TDs), while tight end Eli Raridon adds 342 yards on 20 catches. Notre Dame’s offense ranks 3rd in SP+, with elite efficiency and explosive downfield production.
The run game has been a strength, led by Jeremiyah Love (530 yards, 8 TDs) and Jadarian Price (422 yards, 7 TDs), combining for over 950 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. Notre Dame converts 54.0% of standard downs and ranks top-10 in red zone touchdown rate at 81.0%, but has struggled on fourth down, converting just 36.4%. The offensive line has allowed 9 sacks, and Carr has faced pressure on 30.4% of dropbacks, a concern against USC’s aggressive front. If the Irish can protect Carr and maintain balance, they’ll be tough to stop.
Defensively, Notre Dame has improved dramatically after a shaky start. The Irish allow 20.8 points per game and 351.5 total yards, including 245.3 passing yards, ranking 105th nationally. The secondary has been vulnerable to explosive plays, allowing 9.2 yards per dropback vs. zone coverage, but the unit has forced 12 turnovers, including 11 interceptions over the last four games. Defensive lineman Boubacar Traore leads the team with 5.5 sacks, while Leonard Moore and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa anchor a defense that ranks 28th in SP+. Against USC’s high-octane attack, Notre Dame must generate pressure and win early downs to avoid a shootout.
USC vs Notre Dame Pick
USC vs Notre Dame Spread Pick
- Notre Dame -9.5 (5 Under)
Notre Dame -9.5 is a strong play in a matchup where trench control, red zone efficiency, and defensive opportunism favor the Irish. CJ Carr has thrown 13 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions, and Notre Dame ranks top-10 nationally in red zone touchdown rate at 81.0%. USC’s defense has allowed 243.7 passing yards per game and ranks 102nd nationally, struggling to contain vertical threats and giving up chunk plays. With a balanced attack led by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, Notre Dame can dictate tempo and wear down a Trojan front that’s thin on depth and vulnerable to power runs.
Defensively, Notre Dame has forced 12 turnovers and ranks 28th in SP+, showing improved discipline and coverage since early-season breakdowns. USC’s offense is explosive, but injuries in the backfield and reliance on freshman King Miller could limit their balance. The Irish have allowed just 20.8 points per game during their win streak and have held opponents to under 300 yards in three of their last four. If Notre Dame pressures Jayden Maiava and controls field position, they’re built to cover and close out a statement win at home.
USC vs Notre Dame Over/Under Pick
- Over 61.5 (4 Units)
Over 61.5 is in play with two top-15 scoring offenses and quarterbacks capable of lighting up the scoreboard. USC averages 45.5 points per game, and Notre Dame isn’t far behind at 40.0, with both teams converting over 93% of red zone trips. Explosive wideouts, aggressive playcalling, and vulnerable secondaries on both sides suggest a shootout is likely—especially if early possessions turn into touchdowns. With elite efficiency and tempo, this game could clear the total before the fourth quarter.
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