USC Trojans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Prediction and Picks - September 13, 2025
College football action on Saturday afternoon, and we have a USC Trojans vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction ready to roll for you. The Trojans enter this contest at 2-0 on the young season after taking out Missouri State and Georgia Southern by a combined 132-33 score. Purdue also checks in at 2-0 on the year, with wins over Ball State and Southern Illinois. Which team will make it to 3-0? Continue reading to see our USC vs Purdue prediction.
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Trojans Off To A Strong Start
USC enters its Big Ten opener riding high after back-to-back blowouts, including a 59–20 win over Georgia Southern that showcased the full arsenal of Lincoln Riley’s offense. QB Jayden Maiava threw for 412 yards and four touchdowns, while WR Makai Lemon exploded for 158 yards and two scores—all in the first quarter. The Trojans piled up 755 total yards, including 309 on the ground, with RB Waymond Jordan leading the way with 167 rushing yards. USC’s explosive play rate is among the highest in the country, with seven plays over 35 yards in Week 2 alone.
Offensively, USC looks like a juggernaut. Maiava has yet to throw an interception and leads a unit ranked No. 1 in offensive SP+ (41.3). The Trojans have depth at running back, with Eli Sanders and King Miller both contributing touchdowns last week, and the receiving corps is headlined by Lemon, Ja’Kobi Lane, and TE Walker Lyons. Riley’s playcalling has leaned pass-heavy early, but the run game is emerging as a legitimate weapon. The question now is how this high-octane attack holds up against a Big Ten defense with more size and discipline than their first two opponents.
Defensively, USC has been less convincing. While they’ve allowed just 33 points through two games, both Missouri State and Georgia Southern found success moving the ball, especially in the second quarter. The Trojans gave up 377 yards last week and showed vulnerability in coverage and tackling. Safety Bishop Fitzgerald had a pick-six in Week 1, but the unit has yet to deliver a full four-quarter lockdown performance. Purdue’s balanced offense will test USC’s ability to adjust mid-game and contain a mobile quarterback with a strong run game behind him.
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Now It Gets Real For Purdue
Purdue has opened the season with back-to-back wins, including a 34–17 victory over Southern Illinois that showcased their revamped identity under head coach Barry Odom. After last year’s 1–11 campaign, the Boilermakers have already doubled their win total and look far more disciplined on both sides of the ball. RB Devin Mockobee continues to be the centerpiece, rushing for 126 yards and two touchdowns last week, while QB Ryan Browne added two passing scores and managed the game efficiently. The defense held Southern Illinois to just 3-of-13 on third down and shut them out over the final three quarters.
Offensively, Purdue has leaned into a physical, run-first approach that suits their personnel and stabilizes the tempo. Mockobee has 254 rushing yards through two games and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, while Browne has completed 68% of his passes with zero turnovers. WRs Arhmad Branch and Nitro Tuggle have emerged as reliable targets, and the offensive line has shown improvement in both pass protection and run blocking. Now it gets real, as the Big Ten season is underway and USC brings a level of speed, scheme complexity, and depth that Purdue hasn’t faced yet. Sustaining drives and controlling the clock will be critical if the Boilermakers want to keep USC’s offense off the field.
Defensively, Purdue has been sharp and opportunistic, allowing just 8.5 points per game and ranking top-25 nationally in yards allowed per play (3.9). LB Mani Powell leads the team in tackles and has been a force on early downs, while DE CJ Nunnally and DT Nic Scourton have consistently collapsed pockets and disrupted run lanes. The secondary has held up well, though it hasn’t been tested vertically the way USC will challenge them. Expect Odom to dial up disguised pressures and bracket coverage to slow down Jayden Maiava and force USC into longer drives. Purdue’s defensive discipline and ability to win the line of scrimmage will be key in keeping this one competitive.
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USC Trojans vs Purdue Boilermakers Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
USC vs Purdue Spread Pick
USC enters this matchup as a 20.5-point favorite, and the gap in offensive firepower makes that number feel justified. The Trojans are averaging a staggering 66.0 points and 676.0 yards per game through two weeks, with Jayden Maiava completing nearly 74% of his passes and throwing six touchdowns without a turnover. Purdue, while improved, hasn’t faced anything close to this level of speed or scheme complexity. Their defense allowed Southern Illinois to move the ball early, and they’ve yet to face a quarterback who can stretch the field vertically like Maiava. USC’s tempo and depth at skill positions should overwhelm Purdue’s front seven by the second quarter.
On the other side, Purdue’s offense has leaned heavily on Devin Mockobee, who’s averaging 3.9 yards per carry on high volume. That grind-it-out style may help chew clock, but it’s unlikely to keep pace with USC’s explosive scoring. The Boilermakers have shown resilience, but they’ve also struggled to generate chunk plays—something they’ll need in order to stay within striking distance. With USC’s defense ramping up pressure (nine sacks and 11 TFLs through two games), Purdue’s margin for error shrinks quickly. If the Trojans start fast, as they’ve done in both games this season, they’re well-positioned to cover the number and control the game wire to wire.
- USC -20.5 (5 Units)
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USC vs Purdue Over/Under Pick
With USC averaging a blistering 66.0 points per game and Purdue showing enough offensive competency to punch in multiple scores, the Over 58.5 looks primed to hit. Jayden Maiava leads the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense, and the Trojans have cleared 59 points in both outings without needing four full quarters. Purdue, while not explosive, has scored 31+ in each of its first two games and should benefit from a faster tempo and softer coverage as USC builds a lead. Even if the Boilermakers struggle to keep pace, USC’s ability to generate chunk plays and score quickly makes this total vulnerable to a blowout-driven over.
- Over 58.5 (5 Units)
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