USC vs. Illinois Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC USC Trojans (4-0) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1)
Week 5 of the 2025 college football season brings plenty of interesting matchups on Saturday, September 27, including the Big Ten Conference showdown at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, IL, so we’ve got the USC vs. Illinois prediction and the latest team stats, news, and odds update.
USC meets Illinois for the first time since 2008, when the Trojans beat the Fighting Illini 49-17 in the Rose Bowl. The Trojans are listed as 6.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 60.5 points.
The kick-off is set at noon ET, so let’s look closer at this USC vs. Illinois prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 5 of the 2025 NCAAF season.
USC hopes to stay on track
The No. 21 USC Trojans (4-0; 2-2 ATS; 3-1 O/U) started their 2025 campaign with a four-game winning streak. After a 73-13 dismantling of Missouri State in Week 1 and a 59-20 victory to Georgia Southern in Week 2, the Trojans have won consecutive Big Ten games over Purdue 33-17 on the road and Michigan State 45-31 at home.
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Last Saturday, the Trojans outgained Michigan State 523-337 in total yards, but ultimately failed to cover an 18.5-point spread. USC rushed 40 times for a whopping 289 yards and went 8-for-12 on third down. However, the Trojans committed 11 penalties for 82 yards and lost the turnover battle 1-0.
“That was a game that had some unique twists and turns,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said. “I thought we were controlling the game, and then we had a couple of errors there in the third quarter with the penalties, and the turnover that allowed them to come back and capture some momentum. But I thought our team responded and separated back in a really good way. A lot to learn from.”
Junior QB Jayden Maiava had another big game in Week 4. He threw for 234 yards and three touchdowns while rushing four times for 31 yards and two scores. Junior WR Makai Lemon had eight receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown, while running backs Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders combined for 34 carries and 247 rushing yards.
USC ranks 12th in the country in rushing yards (252.3 per game), and Jordan leads the way with 57 totes for 443 yards and three touchdowns. Maiava has thrown for 1,223 yards and nine touchdowns, while Lemon has already amassed 24 catches, 438 receiving yards, and four touchdowns from scrimmage.
Illinois is coming off a heavy loss
The No. 23 Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1; 3-1 ATS; 2-2 O/U) put an end to their seven-game winning streak last Saturday. After beating Western Illinois 52-3, Duke 45-19, and Western Michigan 38-0 in their first three outings in 2025, the Fighting Illini suffered an embarrassing 63-10 loss at No. 19 Indiana in Week 4. Illinois finished the previous season with a four-game win streak.
The Fighting Illini fell apart last week. Indiana outgained Illinois 579-161 in total yards. The Fighting Illini went 1-for-10 on third down and held the ball in possession for just 20:18. They looked hapless in the trenches, allowing seven sacks and 10 tackles for loss. It was the worst defeat of coach Bret Bielema's tenure at Illinois.
“We didn’t respond to any adversity. It started with the blocked punt and never really got anything on offense or defense," Bielema said. “Embarrassing and at a loss for words.”
The Fighting Illini racked up a paltry two yards on 20 carries in Week 4. Senior signal-caller Luke Altmyer completed 14 of his 22 passing attempts, tossing for 146 yards and a touchdown, while sophomore wideout Collin Dixon posted four catches for 86 yards and a TD.
Altmyer has been solid so far this season, throwing for 855 yards and nine touchdowns. Junior RB Kaden Feagin has 55 carries, 240 rushing yards, and three touchdowns on his season tally, while senior WR Hank Beatty has recorded 22 touches for 327 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns over the last four weeks.
USC vs. Illinois Pick
Spread Pick for USC vs. Illinois
- USC -6.5 (5 units)
The Fighting Illini need more from their ground game. They tally just 3.6 yards per carry (tied for 112th in the country). On the other side, USC posts a staggering 7.1 yards per carry (tied for 2nd). The Trojans’ offense has been outstanding through the first four weeks of the season, and I expect more of the same when they visit Illinois.
USC allows just 3.0 yards per carry, while Illinois yields 4.0 yards per rush. Moreover, the Fighting Illini cannot count on their star cornerback Xavier Scott, who will miss most of the season with a lower leg injury. Fellow DB Kaleb Patterson is out, too, so Illinois has serious injury worries in its secondary.
On the other side, the Trojans might miss WR Ja’Kobi Lane, who sat out the Michigan State game. Lane returned to practice and is questionable for Week 5. The Trojans have enough offensive weapons to hurt the Fighting Illini, so I’m backing USC to win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for USC vs. Illinois
- Over 60.5 (5 units)
The Trojans lean on their dynamic offense. Their ground game has been nothing short of spectacular through the first four weeks of the season, and Jayden Maiava started his junior year on a high note. The injury-depleted Illinois defensive unit will have a tall task to keep the Trojans quiet.
On the other side of the ball, the Trojans have flaws in their secondary. Their run defense looks good, but the Trojans will allow Luke Altmyer and the Fighting Illini to move the ball through the air. Hereof, I’m looking for a high-scoring affair. The over is 5-1 in USC’s last six games overall and 4-1 in Illinois’ last five showings in conference play.
At the moment, the total sits at 60.5 points. Just 24 hours ago, it sat at 58.5 points.
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