USC vs. Oregon Odds, Preview, Picks, and Prediction for Saturday, November 22, 2025
On Saturday, the Oregon Ducks will host the USC Trojans in a Week 13 NCAAF game at Autzen Stadium. The Big Ten Conference matchup is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
The Ducks are 9.5-point spread favorites, and the total is 59.5 points scored.
This USC vs. Oregon prediction highlights a Trojans team that's 6-1 in Big Ten play (tied for third place) and 2-2 on the road, and a Ducks squad that's also 6-1 in conference competition and 5-1 at home. Saturday's matchup marks the 64th college football game between Southern Cal and Oregon. The former Pac-12 rivals last met in 2023, when UO beat USC 36-27 in Eugene. The Ducks have won three straight, but the Trojans lead the series 38-23-2.
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Trojans survived a rainy battle vs Hawkeyes last weekend
USC (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS, and 5-5 O/U) has won three straight Big Ten games since its non-conference road loss at Notre Dame. The Trojans beat Iowa 26-21 at home last Saturday, failing to cover the 6.5-point spread. They trailed 14-0 early and 21-7 late in the second quarter, but scored 19 unanswered points to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. It was hardly dominant, but it was the type of win that builds character and confidence ahead of the season's final stretch.
“You can't ask for a better response than that,” said junior WR Ja'Kobi Lane. “Both sides of the ball just jumped at that opportunity. I definitely think there were some realizations at halftime. If we were going to respond, there were some things that had to be done.”
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Junior QB Jayden Maiava leads USC with 2,868 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He has completed 66.8 percent of his passes, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt. He also rushed for six scores. A few other Trojans to watch this weekend against the Ducks are junior WR Makai Lemon (71 receptions for 1,090 yards and eight TDs), freshman RB King Miller (99 carries for 719 yards and five TDs), and junior RB Waymond Jordan (88 carries for 576 yards and five TDs).
Southern Cal scores 38.2 points per game (11th) and averages 488.9 total yards (7th), including 298.1 passing yards (10th) and 190.8 rushing yards (29th). The USC defense allows 21.7 points (37th) and 344.1 total yards (47th) per game, including 198.3 passing yards (41st) and 145.8 rushing yards (63rd).
USC Trojans Football Injury Report:
- Starting OT Elijah Paige practiced earlier this week, but is questionable.
- Starting Safety Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles) practiced earlier this week, but is questionable.
- Starting Safety Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles and 5 INTs) practiced earlier this week, but is questionable.
- Starting DE Braylan Shelby (3.5 sacks and one INT) is questionable. Riley did not provide an update on his status.
- RB Waymond Jordan (88 carries for 576 yards and five TDs) is doubtful to play vs Oregon, per Riley.
Ducks' QB Moore was on target against Gophers
Oregon (9-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, and 5-5 O/U) has reeled off four wins since its home loss to conference leader Indiana. The Ducks handled their business last Saturday against Minnesota, winning 42-13 and covering as 27-point favorites. The Ducks dominated on both sides of the ball, outgaining the Golden Gophers 510-200. They averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 10.0 yards per pass, as sophomore QB Dante Moore was 27-for-30 passing, setting the school record with a 90% completion percentage. Still, Oregon coach Dan Lanning noted that it was a team effort.
“He (Moore) can't throw it and catch it,” Lanning said. “We had some guys who did a great job of catching it tonight. He certainly threw it in some tight coverages, and guys made plays. So great performance by our QB. Been impressed with him all year.”
Moore leads the Ducks' aerial attack with 2,190 yards (72.8% CMP%), 21 touchdowns, and five interceptions. His top receiving targets are freshman WR Dakorien Moore (28 receptions for 443 yards and three TDs) and junior TE Kenyon Sadiq (30 receptions for 407 yards and six TDs). Senior RB Noah Whittington (76 carries for 623 yards and five TDs) is Oregon's leading rusher.
The Ducks score 39.0 points per game (7th) and average 475.4 total yards (12th), including 241.8 passing yards (59th) and 233.6 rushing yards (9th). The Oregon defense surrenders 13.7 points (6th) and 235.4 total yards (3rd) per game, including 127.3 passing yards (1st) and 108.1 rushing yards (20th).
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Oregon Ducks Football Injury Report:
- Leading WR Dakorien Moore did not play the last two games and is doubtful for Saturday with a knee injury he sustained in practice.
- WR Gary Bryant Jr. (299 receiving yards and four TDs) is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered in Week 11. He didn't play last weekend against Minnesota.
- LB Devon Jackson (sixth-leading tackler) is questionable.
USC vs. Oregon Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for USC vs. Oregon
- Ducks -9.5 (5 Units)
Oregon will run the football at USC, wearing down the Trojans throughout the game. The Ducks lead the country in EPA per rush and rank second in rushing success rate. Their offensive line doesn't allow opponents to generate pressure on Moore or slow down the run game, either (8th in Havoc allowed). They'll lean on their ground game more than their passing attack against USC, which is soft against the run (93rd in rushing plays of ten-plus yards allowed) and tougher against the pass. UO ran all over Iowa (36 carries for 216 yards) a couple of weeks back in a rain-soaked game and will use its deep stable of backs (three rushers with at least 400 yards) to open up the pass on Saturday. Moore won't challenge the Trojans' DBs too often, but he's proven to be surgically accurate this season. Additionally, unlike the Iowa game, the weather is expected to be much more favorable for throwing the ball this weekend in Eugene.
The Trojans aren't likely to get blown out, but I question whether they can keep the game within one score. In a similar type of road matchup at Notre Dame, they were competitive for a good chunk of the game, but still lost by ten points, as the Fighting Irish leaned on their run game (44 carries for 306 yards) to put them away. The Ducks' defense is elite, too. They lead the country in explosiveness prevention rate, showing balance against the run (2nd in runs allowed of ten-plus yards) and the pass (2nd in passes allowed of ten-plus yards).
USC is a good team, but Oregon is great. The Ducks' loss to Indiana will motivate them the rest of the season, giving them the edge to cover the spread on Saturday. A more convincing victory will pad their résumé, and it wouldn't be the first time Lanning ran up the score.
Over/Under Pick for USC vs. Oregon
- Under 59.5 (4 Units)
I like the under in Saturday's game, as I expect a similar outcome to USC's 34-24 road loss at Notre Dame.
The Ducks will run the football to bleed the game clock in the fourth quarter, keeping the football away from the Trojans, as the Irish did. A slightly more conservative game plan is likely against the Trojans' run defense, as the visitors lack physicality, allowing more than three yards per carry before contact (116th in yards allowed before contact).
I also expect the Oregon defense to shine on Saturday. The Ducks will generate pressure (4th in pressure rate generated) against a Trojans' front that's weak in pass protection (98th in pressure rate allowed). While Maiava has fared well under pressure this season, the injury to his blind side protector, Paige, who missed last week's game, is concerning. He'll attempt to get the ball out quickly, but that's an area in which the Ducks excel. They allow just 3.8 yards per attempt, and also rarely allow completions (8th in completion rate allowed).
While USC's pass-heavy spread offense is explosive and will put stress on the under, I anticipate it will hold. The Trojans averaged 5.5 yards per play and scored 21 points against Nebraska, which ranks 7th nationally in explosive play rate allowed. The home team, which ranks first nationally in explosive play rate allowed, will make enough plays to keep the total under 60 points.
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