Utah State Aggies vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code WWWC A pair of Mountain West programs collide on the gridiron in the Aloha State as the Utah State Aggies travel to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Saturday night and we have you covered with our Utah State vs. Air Force prediction. Utah State comes in off a bye last week. The Aggies were downed 55-35 on the road by Vanderbilt September 27, covering the line as a 22.5-point underdog, in their previous contest. Hawaii had a bye week last week. The Rainbow Warriors outgunned Air Force 44-35 on the road September 27, winning outright as a seven-point underdog. In the all-time series between the teams, the Aggies own a 13-6 advantage and have taken the last eight meetings, including a 55-10 home win in the most recent matchup on November 16, 2024. Read more about this Utah State vs. Hawaii prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Utah State Trying to Earn Road Victory
Utah State was in a track meet with Vanderbilt on the road in their previous contest on the road but they were unable to keep up with the Commodores en route to the loss. The Aggies dropped to 3-2 overall on the year and stand 1-0 in Mountain West action. Against Vanderbilt, Utah State led 14-7 early in the second quarter and then proceeded to give up 41 of the next 48 points to trail 48-21 after three quarters. The Aggies didn’t get closer than 20 in the final stanza en route to the loss. Utah State was outgained 543-393 in total offense, gave up 31 first downs while picking up 21, and lost time of possession by a 33:17 to 26:43 margin in the game. Both teams turned the ball over once in the contest.
On the year, the Aggies are 54th in the nation in passing offense as they average 251.8 yards per game through the air and stand 60th in rushing offense with 168.8 yards per contest. Utah State is 32nd in the FBS in scoring offense with 36.4 points per game, while they stand 113th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 30.4 points per contest. Bryson Barnes has completed 85 of 129 passes for 1,143 yards with 11 touchdowns against one interception while adding 69 carries for 245 yards plus six scores in the game. Jacob Conover (11 of 15, 92 yards, two TD, five rush yards) and Anthony Garcia (two of two, 18 yards, TD, 25 rush yards, TD) are next on the depth chart. Miles Davis led the run game with 50 carries for 314 yards and two scores, while Javen Jacobs (32 carries, 200 yards, two TD) and Noah White (12 carries, 54 yards) are next in line. Braden Pegan leads the team with 24 receptions for 369 yards and four scores on the year. Brady Boyd (19 catches, 288 yards, three TD), tight end Broc Lane (nine grabs, 148 yards, TD), Davis (16 receptions, 128 yards, three TD) and Jacobs (16 catches, 113 yards, TD) are all over the century mark in receiving yards on the year. Tanner Rinker hit all 20 extra point attempts and two of two field goal attempts with a long of 49 on the year.
Barnes was injured against Vanderbilt and is questionable here.
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Rainbow Warriors Trying to Take Care of Business at Home
Hawaii comes off a bye last week and hopes to carry over the momentum from their win over Air Force two weeks ago. The Rainbow Warriors enter this game 4-2 overall and stand 1-1 in Mountain West action on the season. Against Air Force, Hawaii took a 14-7 lead with 6:11 to play in the opening quarter and led the rest of the way. The Rainbow Warriors were up 17-7 at the half and didn’t let the Falcons closer than three in the second half in a game that wasn’t decided until the final minute. Hawaii held a 543-494 advantage in total offense, racked up 26 first downs while picking up 17, forced the game’s lone turnover and controlled the clock by a 37:24 to 22:36 margin in the contest.
The Rainbow Warriors enter this game 32nd in the nation in passing offense with 275.5 yards per game through the air, while they are 129th in rushing offense with 93.3 yards per contest on the ground. Hawaii is 86th of the 136 teams that have played this season in the FBS in scoring offense by averaging 25.7 points per game, while they stand 69th in scoring defense by allowing 23.5 points per contest. Micah Alejado is 108 of 164 for 1,043 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions, plus 57 rushing yards. Luke Weaver has completed 61 of 102 passes for 600 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions this season while adding 73 yards on the ground. Demaricus Davis (one of three, 10 yards) has seen limited action. Landon Sims is the team’s leading ground gainer with 59 carries for 241 yards plus a score on the year. Cam Barfield (31 carries, 131 yards, TD) and Christian Vaughn (four carries, 23 yards) are next in line. Pofele Ashlock leads the team with 38 receptions for 355 yards and three scores this season. Jackson Harris (17 catches, 241 yards, three TD), Sims (22 grabs, 195 yards, TD), Karsyn Pupunu (18 catches, 143 yards), Brandon White (21 receptions, 192 yards, TD), Cam Barfield (13 catches, 151 yards, two TD) and Tama Uiliata (21 receptions, 191 yards) have been useful targets in the passing game. Kansei Matuzawa has hit all 14 extra point attempts and 16 of 16 field goal attempts with a long of 52 this season.
Third-string quarterback Davis is dealing with an undisclosed injury and is questionable here.
Utah State vs. Hawaii Pick
Moneyline Pick for Utah State vs. Hawaii
- Hawaii +106 (4 units)
Utah State has a question mark at quarterback with Barnes getting knocked out against Vanderbilt. If he can’t go and Conover takes over, you have to be concerned a bit about the Aggies’ offensive production. Utah State is in the bottom quarter of the FBS in scoring defense and has surrendered 11 touchdowns through the air already this year. Making the trip to the islands always takes a toll on opposing teams and Utah State dropped both their road games by at least 20 points. Sure, those were against SEC teams but Hawaii has been solid at home. As long as the Rainbow Warriors avoid turnover issues, they come away with the win here.
Over/Under Pick for Utah State vs. Hawaii
- Under 58 (4 units)
Utah State has seen the over hit in three of their five games on the season. The Aggies went over the number in both their road games this season. Hawaii has stayed under the number in four of their six games on the year. The Rainbow Warriors stayed under the number in three of their four home games on the year with the exception coming in a 37-20 win over Sam Houston State on September 7. Hawaii has been fairly good at keeping opposing teams in check at home and their offense isn’t effective enough to rack up big point totals. As a result, roll with this game ending up under the total.
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