Utah State at New Mexico Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 25th, 2025
Use Code WWWC In this Utah State at New Mexico prediction, the Aggies take the trip to University Stadium in Albuquerque to take on the Lobos in this Mountain West Conference matchup. Utah State is 4-3 overall and 2-1 in conference play. New Mexico is also 4-3 overall, but just 1-2 in the conference. The opening kick is scheduled for 3:00 pm EST. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Utah State Looks for First Road Win
The Utah State Aggies improved to 4-3 on the season following a 30-25 win over San Jose State Friday night at Maverik Stadium. The Aggies and San Jose State exchanged the lead five different times in the game. Utah State was finally able to put the game away with two long drives resulting in field goals in the final six minutes of the contest.
“I love my team. They are resilient, and they are tough. They believe in one another, they are united, and they battled. I’m really impressed with Tanner (Rinker), our field goal kicker tonight. He was crucial in terms of points under pressure and in context to win a football game. Lots of positives in terms of complementary football with the team supporting one another on offense, defense, and special teams.” Head coach Bronco Mendenhall said after the win over San Jose State.
Quarterback Bryson Barnes set a career-high with 326 yards passing while completing an efficient 22-of-31 passes. He added one touchdown pass in the game. Barnes was tough on the ground as well, rushing 16 times for 54 yards and a touchdown. He now has four games this season with a passing and rushing touchdown. Kicker Tanner Rinker had a great game, going a perfect 3-of-3 in field goal attempts, including the two clutch field goals to seal the win. The Aggies finished with 466 yards of total offense in the game.
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The Aggies’ defense gave up a whopping 534 yards of total offense, but made key plays when called upon. Bronson Olevao Jr. led the team with a career-high 14 tackles and also recovered a fumble. Brevin Hamblin and John Miller each added nine tackles in the game. Bryson Taylor added five tackles and a team-leading three pass breakups. The Aggies forced one turnover in the game.
Utah State arrives in New Mexico just two wins away from bowl eligibility. The Aggies are 34th in points per game in the country. They are 68th on the ground and 38th through the air. The Aggies have struggled to protect the quarterback, ranked 132nd in sacks allowed. They are ranked 30th in red zone offense. Defensively, the Aggies are 123rd in scoring defense. They are just 120th against the run and a dismal 130th against the pass. The Aggies are 57th in sacks per game this year. They are just 133rd in red zone defense. The Aggies are ranked 28th in turnover margin.
Key Injuries: RB Tre Kofe, RB Ravian Larry, and WR Jackson Olsen are questionable.
Lobos Inching Closer to Bowl Eligibility
The New Mexico Lobos jumped out to a 14-3 lead and hung on for a 24-22 win over visiting Nevada last Saturday night in Albuquerque. The Lobos improved to 4-3 on the season after securing their first conference win of the year. The Lobos are now just two wins away from bowl eligibility this season.
“It’s awesome when you can overcome things,” first-year coach Jason Eck said. “We’re a tough-minded team. We battle and we compete, no matter what the situation (is).”
Offensively, the Lobos were led by running back D.J.McKinney. McKinney ran for two touchdowns as part of his 39 yards rushing. He also caught three passes for 43 yards in the win. Fellow running back Scottre Humphrey added a touchdown run of his own while rushing for 58 yards on 13 carries. Quarterback Jack Layne protected the ball well, completing 14-of-22 passes for 138 yards and no interceptions. He also rushed for a team-leading 71 yards on eight carries. The Aggies finished with 348 total yards and 20 first downs.
Defensively, the Lobos allowed 257 total yards, including just 55 on the ground. They dug in on third and fourth down situations, holding Nevada to just 6-of-16 on conversions. Jaxton Eck led the team with 11 tackles. Tavian Combs and Keyshawn James-Newby each chipped in with five tackles. Brett Karhu had the only sack in the game for the Aggies and led the team with two tackles for loss.
The Lobos are 59th in the country in points per game. They are 80th in rushing and 66th in passing. The team is 51st in sacks allowed per game. The Lobos are 93rd in the nation in red zone offense. On the defensive side of the ball, the Lobos are 76th in scoring defense. They are 23rd against the run and 103rd against the pass. The Lobos can get after the quarterback, ranked 23rd in sacks per game. They are just 123rd in red zone defense. They have struggled to hang onto the football; the Lobos are last in the country in turnover margin.
Key Injuries: TE Aldin Bilalbegovic, WR Michael Buckley, WR Kader Diop, RB Ray Iweni, WR Miles Johnson, and TE Marcus Vinson are questionable.
Utah State vs. New Mexico
Point Spread pick for Utah State vs. New Mexico
- Utah State +2.5 (4 units)
I like Utah State to pull off a minor upset on the road this Saturday. The Aggies have struggled defensively this season for sure. However, in this matchup, they are going to benefit from a New Mexico team that is last in the country in turnover margin. Both teams will give up their share of points, but New Mexico’s inability to protect the football will be costly. In addition, Utah State is much better in the red zone offensively than New Mexico. The Aggies are ranked 30th in red zone offense, while the Lobos are ranked just 93rd. That will make all the difference in this close matchup.
Take the Aggies +2.5
Over/Under Pick for Utah State vs. New Mexico
- Over 61.5 (4 units)
This game is ripe for a high-scoring matchup. Both teams can score a good clip, with the Aggies ranked 34th in points per game and the Lobos checking in at 59th. Utah State has been brutal at protecting the ball, ranked 132nd in points allowed per game. Both teams are near the bottom in red zone defense, with Utah State ranked 133rd and New Mexico ranked 123rd. The Lobos turn the ball over at an alarming rate, ranked last in the country. That should create plenty of short fields for Utah State, adding to their point total.
Take the over.
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