Utah State vs. Fresno State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 22, 2025
Utah State Aggies (5-5) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-3)
Week 13 of the 2025 college football season will close down on Saturday with the Western Conference clash at Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, CA, and we’ve prepared the Utah State vs. Fresno State prediction to get you covered.
Fresno State aims for its third straight victory over Utah State. The last time they met, Fresno State beat Utah State 37-32 as a 5.5-point road favorite on October 13, 2023. The Bulldogs are 2.5-point home favorites this time around, while the total sits at 50.5 points.
Read more about this Utah State vs. Fresno State prediction, and check out all our NCAAF picks for Week 13. The kick-off at Valley Children’s Stadium is set at 10:30 PM ET.
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Utah State’s shaky form continues
The Utah State Aggies (5-5; 8-2 ATS; 5-5 O/U) continue to alternate wins and losses and are 3-3 in conference play. In their two outings in November, the Aggies trounced Nevada 51-14 at home and suffered a 29-26 double-overtime defeat against UNLV on the road.
Last Saturday, the Aggies missed a huge opportunity to upset the Rebels. Junior kicker Tanner Rinker had an awful day in the office, missing three of his five field-goal attempts and one of his two extra-point shots.
Utah State outgained UNLV 434-422 in total yards and won the turnover battle 1-0. Senior QB Bryson Barnes threw for 256 yards and a touchdown while rushing 22 times for 124 yards and another score. Junior WR Braden Pegan caught eight passes for 109 yards.
Barnes is having a wonderful season. He’s thrown for 2,352 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just three interceptions while rushing for 531 yards and eight touchdowns. Senior RB Miles Davis has amassed 808 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns, and Pegan has caught 50 passes for 819 yards and five scores.
The Aggies score 32.9 points per game (tied for 33rd in the nation) and surrender 29.7 points in return (tied for 105th). Their defense is 108th in the country in rushing yards (175.2 per game) and 111th in passing yards (246.4).
Fresno State eyes its third straight victory
The Fresno State Bulldogs (7-3; 5-5 ATS; 4-6 O/U) are 4-2 in conference play and still alive in the race for the MWC championship game. After finishing October with consecutive losses at Colorado State 49-21 and to San Diego State 23-0, the Bulldogs beat Boise State 30-7 on the road and Wyoming 24-3 at home in November.
Last Saturday, the Bulldogs took full advantage of Wyoming’s ugly offense. They outgained the Cowboys 311-184 in total yards and won the turnover battle 1-0. Fresno State mustered 13 more 1st downs than Wyoming (22-9).
Sophomore QB Carson Conklin struggled against the Cowboys. He completed just 12 of his 27 passing attempts, throwing for 95 yards and a touchdown. Senior RB Johnathan Arceneaux had four carries for 70 yards and a touchdown, while junior RB Rayshon Luke posted 16 totes for 92 yards.
The Bulldogs benched senior signal-caller E.J. Warner after a heavy loss at Colorado State, and Conklin has tossed for 354 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions across three starts and one relief appearance this season. Fresno State leans on its one-two punch from the backfield, as Luke and Bryson Danielson have combined for 1,395 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns.
Senior wideout Josiah Freeman leads the Bulldogs’ receiving corps with 33 catches for 378 yards and five touchdowns. Fresno State scores 25.9 points per game (tied for 76th in the country) and allows 19.9 points in return (tied for 25th). The Bulldogs’ defense is 35th in rushing yards (125.6 per game) and 11th in passing yards (163.6).
Utah State vs. Fresno State Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Utah State vs. Fresno State
- Fresno State -2.5 (5 units)
The Bulldogs’ offense leaves a lot to be desired, but their defense has been outstanding for most of the season. Fresno State is 13th in the country in total yards allowed (289.2 per game), and just nine teams have more interceptions than the Bulldogs (13).
On the other side, Utah State is 121st in total yards allowed (421.6). The Aggies surrender 4.7 yards per carry (tied for 107th), and the Bulldogs will find a way to move the chains in this game.
The Aggies have allowed a staggering 35 sacks thus far (tied for 128th). They will need another strong performance from Bryson Barnes to keep it close, but I would lean on the Bulldogs’ defense to make a difference.
Utah State is winless in seven straight outings on the road. The Aggies have beaten the number three times in that span. Fresno State is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six showings at home.
Over/Under Pick for Utah State vs. Fresno State
- Under 50.5 (5 units)
The Bulldogs will pound the rock and eat the clock while leaning on their defensive unit once more. They want to keep Bryson Barnes on the sidelines for as much as possible. The Aggies will have a few explosive plays, but I would still go with the under on the total.
The under has hit in five of Fresno State’s last six games overall, and five of those six tilts have produced fewer than 45 points in total. Each of the Bulldogs’ last three home games has seen fewer than 40 points on the scoreboard.
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