Utah State vs. UNLV Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 15, 2025

Utah State Aggies (5-4) vs. UNLV Rebels (7-2) 

The 2025 college football betting action continues Saturday, November 15, with plenty of interesting Week 12 matchups, including the Mountain West Conference clash at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV, so here’s our Utah State vs. UNLV prediction.

The Rebels aim for their third straight victory over the Aggies. Last season, UNLV beat Utah State 50-34, but the Aggies covered a 19-point spread in front of the home fans. The Rebels are 6.5-point home favorites this time around, while the total sits at 71.5 points.

Read more about this Utah State vs. UNLV prediction, and check out all our NCAAF picks for Week 12. The kick-off at Allegiant Stadium is set at 7:00 PM ET.

Utah State routed Nevada in Week 11                                                     

The Utah State Aggies (5-4; 7-2 ATS; 5-4 O/U) continue to alternate wins and losses in conference play. Last week, the Aggies advanced to 3-2, beating Nevada 51-14 as 9.5-point home favorites. Now, the Aggies are 5-0 SU and ATS at home and 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road in 2025.

The Aggies completely dismantled the Wolf Pack last Sunday. Utah State had a 41-0 lead at halftime. The Aggies outgained Nevada 522-242 in total yards and won the turnover battle 3-0. Senior QB Bryson Barnes threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns, senior RB Miles Davis had 11 carries for 33 yards and two touchdowns, and senior WR Brady Boyd caught five passes for 117 yards and two scores.

Barnes is having a nice season. He’s thrown for 2,096 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just three interceptions while rushing for 407 yards and seven touchdowns. Davis has amassed 96 carries, 609 rushing yards, and nine touchdowns, while Boyd and Braden Pegan have combined for 1,258 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.

The Aggies score 33.7 points per game (tied for 27th in the country) on 425.2 total yards (39th). However, their defense has been far from elite level. Utah State allows 29.8 points per game (104th) on 178.4 rushing yards (115th) and 243.1 passing yards (106th).

At least, the Aggies have mustered 20 sacks thus far (tied for 50th). Keep your eyes on senior linebacker John Miller, who’s accounted for 5.5 sacks and 78 tackles, including 7.0 for loss. Senior cornerback Noah Avinger has 61 tackles and three interceptions on his season tally.

UNLV cruised past Colorado State in Week 11                                                       

The UNLV Rebels (7-2; 5-4 ATS; 5-4 O/U) snapped a two-game skid last Sunday. After consecutive losses at Boise State 56-31 and to New Mexico 40-35, the Rebels trounced Colorado State 42-10 as 5.5-point road favorites to advance to 3-2 in conference play.

UNLV outgained Colorado State 571-292 in total yards while holding the hapless Rams scoreless in the second half. The Rebels rushed 41 times for a whopping 320 yards. Junior QB Anthony Colandrea led the charge, scoring twice on his own and throwing for 251 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.

Colandrea has tossed for 2,251 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions this season. He’s rushed for 483 yards and six touchdowns, while junior RB Jai’Den Thomas has recorded 953 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns. Senior WR Jaden Bradley leads the receiving corps with 37 catches for 650 yards and three touchdowns.

UNLV tallies 37.4 points per game (14th in the country) on 463.4 total yards (16th). Just like their next rival, the Rebels have struggled to defend this season, surrendering 31.6 points per game (118th) on 185.2 rushing yards (also 118th) and 265.0 passing yards (tied for 123rd).

The Rebels have amassed 15 sacks so far this season (tied for 99th). DL Tunmise Adeleye leads the way with four sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss, linebacker Marsel McDuffie has accounted for 70 tackles and two interceptions, while defensive backs Aamaris Brown and Laterrance Welch have recorded four interceptions each.

DL Lucas Conti (undisclosed) and DL Tunmise Adeleye (undisclosed) are questionable.

Utah State vs. UNLV Pick 

Spread Pick for Utah State vs. UNLV      

• Utah State +6.5 (5 units) 

Utah State is winless in four road games this season. But three of those four losses have come against really good teams (Texas A&M 44-22, Vanderbilt 55-35, and Hawaii 44-26). That road loss against New Mexico was probably the Aggies’ worst game in 2025.

The Aggies bounced back in style, trouncing the lowly Nevada team. Now, they have to deal with a great offensive team, but the Rebels have struggled to defend a lot this season. UNLV gave up 35 points to New Mexico in its previous outing at home.

Utah State is not a great defensive team by any stretch of the imagination. The Aggies will struggle to contain the Rebels’ offense, but I expect Utah State to hang around on the back of its offense. Just one team allows more yards per carry than UNLV (5.6), and the Aggies’ secondary has been yielding a ton of yards thus far.

Over/Under Pick for Utah State vs. UNLV            

• Over 71.5 (5 units) 

The line has been set sky-high. It’s no surprise, given the way these two teams have been performing. I expect a proper firecracker, too, so give me the over despite that 71.5-point line.

Three of UNLV’s last four games have seen at least 75 points on the scoreboard. The Rebels have allowed 35 or more points three times during that stretch. The Aggies have to take advantage of UNLV’s defensive flaws because UNLV’s offense is almost impossible to slow down.

Three of the last five encounters between Utah State and UNLV have produced more than 80 points in total.