UTEP vs. Texas Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 13, 2025
On Saturday, the UTEP Miners will play the Texas Longhorns at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Week 3 NCAAF action. The Horns are 41.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 52 points scored. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. ET.
This UTEP vs. Texas prediction highlights a Miners squad that split its first two games and a Longhorns team that bounced back from its season-opening loss at Ohio State with a win over San José State. Saturday's game marks the seventh all-time college football matchup between UTEP and Texas. The Longhorns won the most recent game 59-3 in 2020.
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UTEP has struggled to defend the pass
UTEP (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, and 1-1 O/U) lost by 12 at Utah State in its season opener and bounced back with a 42-17 win last week. The Miners failed to cover as five-point underdogs in Week 1 and covered the 7.5-point spread in Week 2.
Texas-El Paso beat FCS opponent UT Martin 42-17 last week, outgaining the Skyhawks by over 100 yards. The Miners averaged 9.6 yards per pass and 7.8 yards per carry. UT Martin was a combined 6-for-23 on third and fourth down.
Sophomore QB Malachi Nelson leads the UTEP passing game with 456 yards (60% CMP%), five touchdowns, and one pick. His top receiving target is junior WR Kenny Odom (14 receptions for 221 yards and two TDs), and the Miners' ground game is paced by senior RB Hahsaun Wilson (eight carries for 117 yards and one TD).
UTEP scores 29.0 points per game (67th) and averages 378.0 total yards (80th), including 229.5 passing yards (71st) and 148.5 rushing yards (87th). The Miners' defense allows 22.5 points (79th) and 365.5 total yards (87th) per game, including 264.0 passing yards (115th) and 101.5 rushing yards (49th).
UTEP Miners Football Injury Report:
N. Dyman LB Out - Undisclosed J. Smith WR Out - Knee
Texas is a massive favorite ATS
Texas (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, and 0-2 O/U) dropped its season opener 14-7 at Ohio State, but responded with a 38-7 win last week. The Longhorns failed to cover the spread as two-point underdogs in Columbus and as 37-point favorites against SJSU.
UT jumped out to a 28-point lead and cruised to victory last week. The Horns outgained the Spartans by 199 total yards, passing for 9.6 yards per pass and rushing for 4.8 yards per carry. The Texas defense forced four turnovers and held San José State to a combined 4-for-17 on third and fourth down.
Junior QB Arch Manning leads the Longhorns' aerial attack with 465 yards (60% CMP%), five touchdowns, and two interceptions. Their top receiving targets are freshman WR Parker Livingstone (six receptions for 175 yards and three TDs) and junior TE Zack Endries (six receptions for 102 yards and two TDs). Sophomore RB CJ Baxter (23 carries for 104 yards) is Texas' top running back.
The Longhorns score 22.5 points per game (99th) and average 404.0 total yards (70th), including 243.5 passing yards (57th) and 160.5 rushing yards (74th). The Texas defense surrenders 10.5 points (28th) and 238.0 total yards (25th) per game, including 157.0 passing yards (38th) and 81.0 rushing yards (25th).
Texas Longhorns Football Injury Report:
A. January DL Out - Undisclosed J. Endries TE Questionable - Undisclosed D. Moore Jr. WR Questionable - Concussion Q. Wisner RB Doubtful - Undisclosed W. Mack CB Questionable - Personal C. Page RB Questionable - Undisclosed R. Stewart Jr. RB Questionable - Undisclosed I. Coleman DL Questionable - Undisclosed E. Mosley V WR Questionable - Leg A. Cojoe OG Out - Knee
UTEP vs. Texas Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,570.00 |
| 2 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,223.00 |
| 3 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,000.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +916.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +706.00 |
Spread Pick for UTEP vs. Texas
- UTEP +41.5 (5 Units)
The Horns looked much better last weekend, but they still couldn't score 40 points. Manning was more efficient than he was against Ohio State, but he certainly hasn't looked the part of the Heisman contender he was labeled in the offseason. Texas' defense has done most of the heavy lifting through its first two games, making a 41.5-point spread a tad too high, in my opinion. Nelson was once a promising recruit, and he'll be eager to show off against UT. In an in-state game, I expect the Miners to compete fiercely, putting up enough of a fight to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for UTEP vs. Texas
- Under 52 (4 Units)
I don't expect the Longhorns to dominate this matchup enough to bet on the over. They will get more of a fight from UTEP than anticipated, keeping them within two to three scores for at least the first half of action. The Miners have been solid against the run, and given Manning's mediocre play through two weeks, I don't envision him taking over and putting a big number on the board. The Longhorns' defense has played very well — these teams will play to a lower-scoring game on Saturday in Austin.
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