Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 29, 2025
Rivalry Weekend in college football continues Saturday as the Tennessee Volunteers (8–3, 4–3 SEC) host the Vanderbilt Commodores (9–2, 5–2 SEC). These programs have met 118 times dating back to 1892, with Tennessee leading the all-time series 79–32–5.
The Volunteers have won the last six meetings, including a 36–23 win in Nashville last season as a 10-point favorite.
This year’s spread is the closest these teams have seen since 2018, when Vanderbilt won 38–13 as a 3.5-point favorite.
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Can Pavia add another chapter to his legacy?
Vanderbilt enters ranked number 14 in the College Football Playoff rankings and number 17 in the College Football Power Index. The Commodores have faced the 26th-rated schedule in the nation.
They come in on a two-game winning streak after beating Auburn and rolling Kentucky 45–17. Their two losses were nothing to be ashamed of, falling 30–14 to Alabama and 34–31 on the road at Texas.
Quarterback Diego Pavia is the leader of this offense. He is ranked fifth in the nation in QBR, throwing for 2,924 yards with 26 touchdowns and six interceptions. Diego Pavia's accuracy has taken a significant leap this season. After completing 59.4% of his passes last year, he has climbed all the way to 71.8%. He is also the team’s leading rusher with 661 yards and eight scores on the ground.
The Vanderbilt offense ranks 19th nationally in total yardage, averaging just over 458 per game. Defensively, they sit 55th, allowing 353.4 yards per contest. They are 9th in scoring at 38.9 points per game and 42nd in scoring defense at 21.7.
Tennessee looking to continue rivalry dominance
Tennessee is ranked 19th in the country according to the CFP rankings and 16th in the College Football Power Index. The Volunteers enter on a two-game winning streak after a 31–11 road win over Florida. Their three losses have all come against elite opponents: Georgia 44–41, Alabama 37–20, and Oklahoma 33–27. They also own SEC wins over Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Kentucky.
Quarterback Joey Aguilar has raised his profile after transferring from Appalachian State, where he led the Mountaineers for two successful seasons. Aguilar has completed 67% of his passes for 3,145 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He also ranks 18th nationally in QBR.
Deshawn Bishop leads the team with 886 rushing yards, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and adding 12 touchdowns.
Tennessee is fourth in the nation in total offense, generating just over 491 yards per game, and they are also fourth in scoring at 42.3 points per game. On defense, the Volunteers rank 75th in total yards allowed at 378.5 per game and 84th in scoring defense at 27.3.
Key Injuries for Tennessee Vols:
- TE Miles Kitselman (undisclosed) is out Has 25 catches.
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Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Vols Predictions
Vandy vs Tennessee ATS Pick:
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Vanderbilt +3.5 (5 units)
Even at 9–2, Vanderbilt still has a lot of doubters. They are not known as a football powerhouse, and their academic reputation often overshadows their progress on the field. They have also lost six straight against Tennessee. However, this is a strong situational spot and a chance for Diego Pavia to add to his legacy.
Both teams can light up the scoreboard, and both have defensive issues, but Vanderbilt's resume overall matches up well with Tennessee's.
Going into Knoxville is never easy, but as the underdog, Vanderbilt is my play.
Vanderbilt vs Tennessee Total Pick:
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Over 64.5 (5 units)
This is a rivalry game, but I expect to see a lot of points. According to the SEC Football Power Index, Vanderbilt is first in the nation in offensive efficiency, and Tennessee is ninth. On the defensive side of the ball, both units take a step bac,k with Tennessee ranked 34th in defensive efficiency and Vanderbilt down all the way to 57th. Both teams also prefer to air it out offensively, and their secondaries have struggled. Vanderbilt ranks 16th in passing offense at almost 284 yards per game, while Tennessee ranks 111th in passing yards allowed. Tennessee’s passing offense is fourth nationally at nearly 308 yards per game, while Vanderbilt ranks 113th in passing yards allowed.
With Tennessee averaging over 42 points per game and Vanderbilt just under 39, I expect this game to reach the 70s, and I am on the over.
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