Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s a battle of ranked SEC foes from the Yellowhammer State on the gridiron as the #16 Vanderbilt Commodores are on the road to battle the #10 Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Vanderbilt vs. Alabama prediction. Vanderbilt ran past Utah State 55-35 at home last Saturday, failing to cover the line as a 22.5-point favorite, in their previous contest. Alabama upended #5 Georgia 24-21 on the road in their previous game last Saturday, winning outright as a 2.5-point underdog In the all-time series between the teams, the Crimson Tide holds a 60-20-4 advantage, though the Commodores picked up a 40-35 home win in the most recent matchup on October 5, 2024. Read more about this Vanderbilt vs. Alabama prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Commodores Seeking to Remain Unbeaten
Vanderbilt rode its offense past Utah State at home last week and rolled into Tuscaloosa with a ton of momentum on their side. The Commodores improved to 5-0 overall on the season and stand 1-0 in SEC action on the season. Against Utah State, Vanderbilt was even after the opening quarter before blowing the game open by outscoring the Aggies 42-14 in the middle two quarters to turn things into a rout. The Commodores rolled up a 543-393 edge in total offense, owned a 31-21 advantage in first downs and controlled the clock by a 33:17 to 26:43 margin. Both teams turned the ball over once but Diego Pavia’s big performance carried Vanderbilt to the win.
The Commodores enter this contest 32nd in the FBS in passing offense with an average of 271 yards per game through the air. Vanderbilt is 18th in rushing offense as they average 223.4 yards per contest on the ground as a team. The Commodores are 4th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 49 points per game, while they are 31st in scoring defense as they allow an average of 17.2 points per contest. Diego Pavia is 94 of 126 passing for 1,211 yards with 13 touchdowns against three interceptions. He leads the team with 294 yards and two scores on the ground. Blaze Berlowitz (five of 12, 76 yards, TD, 73 rush yards, TD), Whit Muschamp (two of three, 40 yards, eight rush yards) and Drew Dickey (one of two, 28 yards, 13 rush yards, TD) have also seen action. Sedrick Alexander (46 carries, 243 yards, four TD), Makhilyn Young (20 carries, 211 yards, four TD) and Jamezell Lassiter (eight carries, 144 yards, two TD) are also effective in the ground game. In the passing game, Eli Stowers leads the team with 22 receptions for 301 yards and two scores. Tre Richardson (18 catches, 236 yards, TD), Junior Sherrill (17 grabs, 225 yards, five TD) and Richie Hoskins (10 receptions, 119 yards, TD) are each over the century mark in receiving yards this season. Brock Taylor is 29 of 30 on extra points and five of five on field goal attempts with a long of 51 this year. Justin Dewers is one of one on extra point attempts while Mason Rohmiller is two of two. Neither has attempted a field goal.
For what it’s worth, Pavia is confident about his team’s chances in the contest. "I don't know what they're doing, I just focus on us, but I know we've got to bring it, that's for sure. The crowd, I think, is going to be a big factor in the game. But we just gotta play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won't be close."
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Alabama Looking to Stay Hot
Alabama won their third straight since a season-opening loss to Florida State as it took down #5 Georgia on the road last week. The Crimson Tide improved to 3-1 overall and 1-0 in the SEC on the season as they snapped the Bulldogs’ school-record 33-game home win streak. Against Georgia, Alabama led 7-0 after the opening quarter and 24-14 at the half before the game turned into a defensive slog. The Crimson Tide didn’t score in the second half, but their defense stepped up, including a stop on 4th and 1 from the Alabama eight-yard line with 13:20 to play, en route to the win. Alabama owned a 397-357 edge in total offense, picked up 25 first downs while allowing 17 and controlled the clock by a 35:36 to 24:24 margin while forcing the game’s lone turnover.
The Crimson Tide is 10th in the FBS in passing offense this season, as they average 321.8 yards per game through the air. Alabama is 108th in rushing offense as they average 122 yards per game on the ground this year. The Crimson Tide is 26th among 136 FBS teams in scoring offense, as they average 38 points per game this season. Alabama is 28th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 16.5 points per game on the year. Ty Simpson is 88 of 127 passing for 1,138 yards with 11 touchdowns while adding 57 yards and two scores on the ground. Austin Mack (eight of 11, 80 yards, two TD, four rush yards) and Keelon Russell (four of six, 65 yards, two TD, one rush yard) have seen action under center as well. Kevin Riley leads the team on the ground with 33 carries for 150 yards. AK Dear (seven carries, 85 yards, TD), Richard Young (19 carries, 48 yards, TD), and Jam Miller (16 carries, 46 yards) are also in the mix. Germie Bernard leads the team with 20 receptions for 310 yards and four scores. Ryan Williams (15 catches, 238 yards, two TD), Isaiah Horton (14 grabs, 170 yards, three TD), Lotzier Brooks (eight receptions, 128 yards) and Riley (12 catches, 114 yards) are all over 100 receiving yards on the season. Connor Talty is 16 of 16 on extra point attempts and four of six on field goal attempts with a long of 46 this year. Peter Notaro is four of four on extra points while not attempting a field goal on the season.
Edge rusher Qua Russaw is out after undergoing foot surgery following an injury sustained against Georgia. Defensive lineman Jah-Marien Latham (neck) is done for the season.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama Prediction
Spread Pick for Vanderbilt vs. Alabama
- Vanderbilt +11 (4 units)
Alabama is a tough team at home, but their lack of a running game is troubling. The Crimson Tide struggles to move the ball, averaging only 3.9 yards per carry on the year, and keeping the ball away from the Commodores is the best-case scenario to keep Vanderbilt in check. Alabama has not turned the ball over this season, leaving them a +9 in the takeaway/giveaway department. Vanderbilt is a very good offensive team, averaging nearly 500 yards per game, and they can do damage through the air and on the ground. Pavia already beat Alabama last season and if nothing else, he should be able to keep the Commodores close enough to cover the line, if not stun them outright.
Over/Under Pick for Vanderbilt vs. Alabama
- Over 55 (4 units)
Both teams are high-octane offensive units ranking in the top quarter of the FBS in scoring offense this season. Vanderbilt can do damage through the air and on the ground, while Alabama has been excellent through the air. The Commodores have seen the over post a 3-2 mark in their five games on the year. Vanderbilt has scored at least 31 points in each of their games this year. Alabama has seen the over hit in three of their four games, with last week’s road win over Georgia the outlier. We saw 75 points in last season’s matchup and with the explosive playmakers on both sides, look for this game to wind up over the total.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
