Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 25th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Virginia Cavaliers (6-1, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U) take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-4, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U) in an ACC showdown on Saturday afternoon, and we have everything you need to know and the prediction. The Cavaliers posted a home win against Washington State in their previous action. The Tar Heels were hit with a road loss by California last Friday. North Carolina beat Virginia in the meeting last season.
Can North Carolina keep the score with 10 points on Saturday afternoon? Check out the Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels prediction. When it comes to college football selections, our NCAAF Predictions are stellar.
Virginia Eyes Sixth Straight Win
The Virginia Cavaliers are seeking their sixth straight win. Virginia dropped its first ACC game of the season against NC State back in September and has not lost since. They beat Florida State in late September and recorded a narrow 22-20 home win against Washington State last week, but weren’t close to covering the 15.5-point spread. They are 4-1 in conference play. The Cavaliers have covered in five consecutive games. They dropped one spot to #16 in this week's edition of the AP Top 25.
Chandler Morris has been steady. The Senior QB has posted 229 or more yards in four games this season. He was subpar last week, amassing 179 yards. Morris has amassed 1607 passing yards, accompanied by an 11:4 TD to INT ratio on the season. The rushing offense is dangerous. J’Mari Taylor posted 99 yards in the win against Florida State, but was quiet last week. The senior RB has 512 rushing yards on the year. Xavier Brown has 241 yards.
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Trell Harris is relied on heavily in the air. The senior WR brought in 21 yards last week and leads the squad with 405 receiving yards. Jahmal Edrine has registered 335 yards. The Virginia offense only delivered 301 yards last week, which was out of character. The offense has been dominant most of the season, averaging 462 yards per game.
The Cavaliers' defense is also strong, but not as good as the offense. Devin Neal has made 40 tackles and broken up five passes. The unit squandered 326 yards last week. They are conceding an average of 353 yards per game. They have kept their opponent to 20 or fewer points in all but two games. The pass defense is 86th, while the rush defense is stingy, ranking 40th.
Virginia is averaging 40 points on the year, good for 10th. The Cavaliers are conceding an average of 23.3 points, placing them 60th.
North Carolina Targets First Conference Win
The North Carolina Tar Heels are seeking their third win of the season. North Carolina was 2-1 after three games, but has been dominated in ACC play. One of their wins was against Richmond with plays in the FCS. They lost by 28 points against Clemson earlier this month and were charged with a narrow 21-18 road loss by California last week in a meeting that had the Tar Heels marked as 7.5-point dogs. A fumble near the goal line late in the game cost UNC a rare win. The Tar Heels have covered the spread in one conference game.
Gio Lopez struggled last week, managing 167 passing yards and no TDs. The sophomore QB has subpar numbers, recording 597 passing yards and a 3:3 TD to INT ratio on the season. They also have an experienced QB in Max Johnson, who has 378 passing yards.
The running game is below average. Demon June has reached 50 yards on three occasions. The freshman leads the team with 276 rushing yards. The receiving core is a weakness. They do not have a player with 300 yards yet this season. Jordan Shipp has netted 52 or fewer yards in five of six games and has managed 253 yards. The North Carolina offense has not been able to find a groove under Bill Belichick. They posted 287 yards last week and have reported an average of 267 yards on the season.
The Tar Heels' defense has been shaky for the most part. They did rebound with a strong performance last week, yielding only 295 total yards. They are squandering an average of 360 yards per game. Andrew Simpson has made 33 tackles and two sacks. The pass defense is a glaring weakness, ranking 97th, while the rush defense stands at 36th.
North Carolina is scoring an average of 18.7 points on the season, ranking them 125th. The Tar Heels are surrendering an average of 25 points, pegging them 75th in the country.
Virginia vs. North Carolina Pick
Spread Pick for Virginia vs. North Carolina
- Virginia Cavaliers -10.5 (5 units)
The Virginia Cavaliers are hot, winning five consecutive games, including big wins against Florida State and Louisville. The North Carolina Tar Heels are having a disastrous season under new coach Bill Belichick. They have dropped three straight games, and their last win was against Richmond, which plays in the FCS.
Furthermore, Virginia has a dynamite offense. They are averaging 258 passing yards per game. The success in the air will continue against a poor pass defense. The Tar Heels are squandering an average of 240 passing yards, pegging them 98th. Also, the Cavaliers have a strong defense. Their last two games have gone to OT, which has inflated some of the defensive stats. I am not concerned with their pass defense against a North Carolina offense that is struggling in the air, averaging 162 passing yards per game. It will be a daunting task on the ground against a stingy Cavaliers defense that is ranked 39th against the run.
Over/Under Pick for Virginia vs. North Carolina
- Under 51.5 (5 units)
I expect this one to go under. Virginia has cooled down a bit in the offensive end. They have been kept to just 30 and 22 points in their past two games, well below their season average of 40 points. The Tar Heels posted their best defensive performance of the season last week, conceding only 295 total yards.
In addition, North Carolina has a horrendous offense. They have netted 20 or fewer points in five of their six games on the season, including only 10 points in their previous home game against Clemson. Also, they have a slow offense, averaging just 59 offensive plays per game, ranking them at the bottom at 136th in the country. The under is 4-1 in the Tar Heels’ past five games.
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