Virginia Tech vs. NC State Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 27, 2025

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On Saturday, the Virginia Tech Hokies will play the NC State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium in Week 5 NCAAF action. North Carolina State is a ten-point spread favorite, and the game total is 57 points scored. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET.

This Virginia Tech vs. NC State prediction highlights a Hokies team that got its first win of the season last week and a Wolfpack squad that was tripped up for the first time last weekend. VT leads the all-time series against NC State 28-20-4, but the Wolfpack won the most recent matchup (2023).

Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Predictions.

Virginia Tech is a program in transition

Virginia Tech (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS, and 2-2 O/U) beat Wofford last week, securing its first victory after consecutive losses versus South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Old Dominion to open the season. The Hokies fired head coach Brent Pry following the upset loss to ODU.

VT won 38-6 last weekend, as the Hokies jumped out to a 21-0 lead and outgained the Terriers 461-141 in total yards. The home team held the visitors to -1 rushing yards and 5-for-15 on third down, controlling the time of possession by roughly nine minutes. Virginia Tech averaged 9.0 yards per pass and 4.2 yards per carry against the FCS opponent, giving offensive coordinator and interim head coach Philip Montgomery his first win.

“It’s been an emotional week,” Montgomery said. “I couldn’t be more proud of our players. I couldn’t be more proud of our coaches. This is just one week. We’ve got to continue to keep building. We’ve got to continue to keep growing. But it was good to have that (the win) happen for them. They went out and earned it, they went out and did it, and I couldn’t be more proud.”

Senior QB Kyron Drones leads the Hokies' passing attack with 928 yards (63.0% CMP%), six touchdowns, and three interceptions. He's also the team's second-leading rusher (52 carries for 144 yards and four scores) behind senior RB Marcellous Hawkins (40 carries for 187 yards). Drones' top receiving targets are senior WR Donavon Greene (10 receptions for 203 yards and two TDs) and junior WR Ayden Greene (12 receptions for 200 yards and one TD).

Virginia Tech scores 23.8 points per game (95th) and averages 369.5 total yards (86th), including 232.0 passing yards (69th) and 137.5 rushing yards (96th). The Hokies' defense allows 29.8 points (111th) and 371.3 total yards (84th) per game, including 213.8 passing yards (77th) and 157.5 rushing yards (86th).

Virginia Tech Football Injury Report: LB Caleb Woodson (24 tackles) and S Quentin Reddish (15 tackles) are questionable to play in Saturday's ACC game against NC State.

NC State has struggled to defend the pass

NC State (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, and 3-1 O/U) picked up wins over East Carolina, Virginia, and Wake Forest in its first three games, but couldn't sustain its momentum at in-state rival Duke last week. The Wolfpack lost by 12 as three-point underdogs, breaking a two-game ATS winning streak.

North Carolina State outgained Duke 535-418, averaging 9.3 yards per pass and 4.9 yards per rush, but lost the turnover battle 4-0 and was 1-for-4 on fourth down. The Wolfpack led 20-7 with less than five minutes remaining in the first half, but unraveled after that, allowing five touchdowns and a field goal.

Sophomore QB CJ Bailey paces the NC State offense with 1,083 passing yards (71.9% CMP%), seven touchdowns, and four interceptions. He has also rushed for 93 yards and three scores. Bailey's preferred receiving targets are sophomore WR Terrell Anderson (15 receptions for 273 yards and two TDs) and senior WR Wesley Grimes (nine receptions for 173 yards and one TD). Sophomore RB Hollywood Smothers (80 carries for 503 yards and four TDs) leads the NC State ground game.

NC State scores 31.5 points per game (63rd) and averages 445.0 total yards (38th), including 270.8 passing yards (34th) and 174.3 rushing yards (65th). The Wolfpack defense surrenders 29.3 points (107th) and 414.0 total yards (114th) per game, including 290.3 passing yards (133rd) and 123.8 rushing yards (54th).

NC State Football Injury Report: LB Cian Slone (16 tackles and one INT), second-leading receiver Wesley Grimes, and CB Jackson Vick (13 tackles) are questionable to play on Saturday against Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech vs. NC State Pick

Spread Pick for Virginia Tech vs. NC State

• NC State -10 (5 Units)

The Hokies got in the win column last week, but they're unlikely to keep up with the Wolfpack on the scoreboard. Virginia Tech has too many issues to compete with NC State, especially on the road. Drones looked like a capable player at times last season, but was 32-for-64 passing for 355 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions against South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Like last year, he has seen far too much pressure, as the Hokies' offensive line has allowed ten sacks (112th) and 24 tackles for loss (97th). VT has struggled to replace RB Bhayshul Tuten (1,159 rushing yards and 15 TDs in 2024) and lacks explosive playmakers.

The NC State offense will pick apart the Hokies' secondary, too. Virginia Tech's FBS opponents have averaged at least 11 yards per pass attempt, as explosive plays have been too common. The Wolfpack has excelled through the air, as six pass-catchers have at least 100 receiving yards this season. The Hokies' run defense was also soft against Vanderbilt and Old Dominion (250-plus yards allowed in both games). Bailey will bounce back from the Duke loss in a big way on Saturday, leading the home team to a comfortable win.

Over/Under Pick for Virginia Tech vs. NC State

• Under 57 (5 Units)

I don't anticipate a close game, which should lead to an under. This is a high total, as both teams have struggled defensively, but I'm not confident that the Hokies can score enough to push the total over 57. The visitors' offensive line is a sieve, and NC State ranks 37th nationally in tackles for loss. Drones can be a threat on the ground, but he's been running for his life more often than he's been running for first downs this year. With a lack of explosive skill position players, the Hokies will find themselves in a shootout they won't survive on Saturday. With a comfortable lead, the Wolfpack will keep the ball on the ground in the second half, draining the game clock (24th in time of possession), too.

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