Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs, Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Friday, January 2, 2026
It's the ACC vs. the SEC in this Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State prediction from the Duke's Mayo Bowl at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte at 8 pm ET. Wake Forest (8-4) finished 4-4 in a very mediocre ACC to rank tied for seventh with four other teams. It was a rough season for Mississippi State (5-7), which finished 1-7 in the SEC. The Demon Deacons have won three of their last four games, but fell in their last contest to Duke 49-32 on the road on Nov. 29. The Bulldogs are coming into this game having lost three straight, including the annual Egg Bowl to Ole Miss at home 38-19. Check out more free college football picks at Winners and Whiners.
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Wake ends season on a nice run
Wake Forest had won six of their last seven games before falling to Duke 49-32 in the season finale on Nov. 29. Like most bowl teams, Wake Forest is going to play without several key players who are opting out. That includes second-team All-ACC RB Demond Caliborne, who is focusing on the NFL Draft. DL Mateen Ibirogba, and wide receivers Chris Barnes and Micah Mays Jr. are entering the portal and won't play.
That will put more pressure on QB Robby Ashford, who is completing 59.2% of his passes for 2,169 yards with nine TDs and seven INTs. He also has 504 rushing yards with seven scores. With Claiborne out, who has 907 yards rushing, Ty Clark III (232 yds) will need to step up.
The defense is led by first-team All-ACC safety Nick Andersen, who has 94 tackles to rank third in the league. The defense has been pretty stout, ranking ninth in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.9.
Bulldogs fortunate to get a bowl bid
The bowl season, with several times opting out like Notre Dame and Kansas State, has become an Oprah Winfrey show-like slogan. "You get a bowl bid, no, you get a bowl bid!" There have been just six bowl teams that finished the regular season at 5-8 and Mississippi State could become the seventh. Head coach Jeff Lebby will be happy to accept the bid and will add former head coach Zach Arnett as their new defensive coordinator.
Unlike Wake Forest, Mississippi State doesn't lose key players to the portal. But they won't have quarterback Blake Shapen, who is preparing for the draft. Shapen was injured late in the season, but managed to throw for 2,433 yards with 15 TDs and eight picks, while rushing for three scores. Kamario Taylor (388yds, 4TDs, 1 INT) is expected to take over. He played in the loss to Ole Miss, rushing for 173 yards on 20 carries and throwing for 178 yards with a pick. Fluff Bothwell leads the team with 639 yards rushing with six TDs.
The Bulldogs are not very good defensively, allowing 405.8 yards per game and they rank 117th against the run (189.5ypg).
Spread Pick for Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
Mayo Bowl Pick and Prediction for Wake Forest vs. Miss. State
- Wake Forest +3.5 (4 units)
Wake Forest has several weeks to prepare for Taylor, who started that final game and may have played whether Shapen was staying or not. He can win the game with his legs, but Wake Forest ranks 34th against the run, allowing 122.2 yards per game, and they are 24th in yards per carry average allowed. This is not a good Mississippi State team and Wake has covered 7 of their last 9 games. Take the points.
Totals Pick for Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
- Over 52.5 (5 units)
Wake Forest, despite having a better defense, has gone over in three straight games. Mississippi State has allowed 35 or more points in five straight games. They've gone over in four of their last five games. Even with a backup quarterback, they should be able to put up at least 24 points in this game, but Wake should be able to put up 30 against a bad rushing defense.
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