Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines Pick and Prediction for Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Wisconsin Badgers (2-2, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U) take on the Michigan Wolverines (3-1, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U) in a Big 10 showdown on Saturday afternoon at the Big House, and we have everything you need to know and the prediction. The Badgers dropped a home clash against Maryland in their recent action. The Wolverines earned a big win against Nebraska. This is the first meeting since 2021 in a game Michigan won.
Can Wisconsin keep the score within 16 points on Saturday? Check out the Wisconsin vs. Michigan prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Picks!
Wisconsin Seeks First Conference Win
The Wisconsin Badgers are seeking their first conference win of the season. Wisconsin was 2-0 to begin the season against easy opponents, beating Miami Ohio and Middle Tennessee State. Next, they had to play against Alabama and were dealt a 38-15 road loss and did not cover. The Badgers kicked off conference play against Maryland and had more offensive struggles in a 27-10 defeat in a clash that had the Badgers marked as the 10-point favorites. The Badgers have covered the spread just once.
Danny O’Neil got the start last week as Billy Edwards Jr. remained out with his knee injury. Edwards Jr. is questionable, and his status won’t be known until Saturday morning. O'Neil has been decent. The sophomore QB has connected on 70% of his passes. He has managed 640 passing yards and a 5:5 TD to INT ratio. He was also injured late in the game last week and is questionable. If O’Neil and Edwards Jr. can’t play, Hunter Simmons is next up. The quarterback played for Northern Illinois last season.
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Wisconsin will run more than pass. Dillin Jones has been sharing the duties with Darrion Dupree. Jones has an unknown injury and is questionable. He has 154 yards, while Dupree has 144 yards. The receiving core is decent. Lance Mason brought in 45 yards against Maryland and has 177 receiving yards on the season. The offense only posted 319 yards against Maryland. The Wisconsin offense is averaging 323 yards per game.
The Badgers' defense is a strength. The only team they struggled against was Alabama on the road. The group conceded just 326 yards last week. They are keeping opponents to an average of 285 yards per game. Christian Allegro has been solid, making 26 tackles. Safety Preston Zachman is injured and won't play. The pass defense has been exposed, ranking 90th, while the rush defense is the best in the country, standing 1st.
Wisconsin is averaging 20.8 points on the season, ranking them 110th. The Badgers are keeping opponents to only 18.8 points, good for 45th.
Michigan Records Win in Conference Opener
The Michigan Wolverines are seeking a third straight win. Michigan was 1-1 after two games, including a road loss against Oklahoma. They have rebounded with two straight wins. They defeated Central Michigan by a 63-3 score. Next, Michigan opened Big 10 play with a narrow 30-27 road win against Nebraska in a meeting that had the Wolverines as one-point favorites. The Wolverines have covered in two straight games. They dropped one spot to #20 in the recent edition of the AP Top 25 this week.
Bryce Underwood is considered one of the best young QBs in the country. The freshman has been inconsistent at times, which is to be expected for his first season. Underwood posted 105 passing yards in the win against Nebraska and has recorded 733 passing yards and a 2:1 TD to INT ratio on the season. He has added 169 rushing yards.
Michigan has chosen to run more than the pass. Justice Haynes has been a beast. The junior RB has posted more than 100 yards in each game, including 159 yards against New Mexico. Haynes has amassed 537 rushing yards. The receiving core is strong. Donovan McCulley has brought in 197 yards. Semaj Morgan only recorded 22 yards in the recent win. The junior WR has managed 143 yards. The Michigan offense posted 391 yards against Nebraska. They are averaging 436 yards per game.
The Wolverines' defense is their top strength. The unit was not quite as sharp to begin conference play last week against a good offense, squandering 351 yards against Nebraska. Ernest Hausmann leads the squad with 29 tackles. The pass defense is 70th. The rush defense has been outstanding, standing 10th.
Michigan is posting an average of 35 points, ranking them 45th. The Wolverines are conceding an average of just 17.8 points, positioning them 35th.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan Pick
Spread Pick for Wisconsin vs. Michigan
- Wisconsin Badgers +16.5 ( 5 units)
The Wisconsin Badgers are a desperate team and better than the numbers indicate. They are dealing with many injuries, and some of the injured players should be back for this game, including QB Billy Edwards Jr., who is a game-time decision. The Badgers rely on defense, and the defense will keep them in this game.
Furthermore, Michigan has not been dominant by any stretch. They dropped a road clash against Oklahoma and only won by three points against Nebraska. Michigan QB Bryce Underwood has talent, but has been inconsistent. He has only connected on 56% of his passes. The Michigan offense is ranked 106th in passing yards per game and is up against a tough defense. Michigan will run heavily, which is great news for the Badgers' defense. Their rush defense is dominant, ranking 1st in the country. Expect the Badgers' defense to be the difference in covering the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Wisconsin vs. Michigan
- Over 42.5 (5 units)
I expect this one to go over when considering this number of just 42 points. Wisconsin could have its #1 QB, Billy Edwards Jr, back, and I expect the offense to target the Wolverines in the air. The Wolverines' pass defense is shaky, standing 69th in the country. This is a good Wolverines defense, but not nearly as dominant as Oregon, Penn State, Texas, Indiana, or Ohio State.
In addition, while I expect the Badgers' defense to contain Michigan, the unit has been mediocre in its past two games against stronger opponents. They surrendered 27 points against Maryland in their most recent action. Michigan has scored 30 or more points in its two home games. The over is 6-0 in Wisconsin’s past six road games.
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