Iowa State vs. Arkansas State, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 13, 2025
It’s a big chance at an upset in Arkansas for the Red Wolves on Saturday, Sept. 13. Read our Iowa State vs Arkansas State prediction along with our other College Football Picks! The Cyclones are 3-0 and they are the No. 14-ranked team in the nation. Iowa State is fresh off of its big win against rival Iowa last weekend. Arkansas State is 1-1 and they lost to in-state rival Arkansas on the road by 42 points. This is the return trip for Iowa State, who defeated the Red Wolves easily in Ames last season. These two teams will meet with kick-off set for 4 P.M. EST.
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Iowa State fresh off Cy-Hawk trophy win
Iowa State is 3-0 this year and they are the No. 14-ranked team in the nation. The Cyclones are off to a great start as they defeated Kansas State 24-21 in Dublin, Ireland. They followed it by destroying FCS South Dakota 55-7 at home. Last week, they came away with the Cy-Hawk trophy, defeating Iowa. This is the first road game against a smaller FBS program for Iowa State since 2023. They lost to Ohio 10-7 on the road during this season.
In their last game, Iowa State defeated Iowa 16-13 at home on Saturday, Sept. 6. It was a typical game between these two rivals. There were very few possessions while defense and special teams were vastly important. The Cyclones jumped out a 13-3 lead before a touchdown for Iowa before halftime. The Hawkeyes tied the game by hitting a field goal in the third quarter. But, Iowa State’s Kyle Konrardy hit a 54-yard field goal to win the game with 1:52 on the clock.
Quarterback Rocco Becht threw for 134 yards on 18-for-27 passing with a touchdown and zero picks. The rushing attack went for 104 yards, led by Abu Sama III with 47 yards on the ground. It was a big game defensively for Marcus Neal Jr., who had nine tackles and one sack. Iowa State’s defense allowed just 214 yards the Hawkeyes’ offense.
This is going to be a big season for Becht. The junior threw for 183 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas State. He followed it with 278 yards and three touchdowns against South Dakota. He has not turned the ball over yet and hasn’t been sacked in the past two games. He’s a very capable signal caller and is key for the team if they want to go far this year.
Neal Jr. is the main man for Iowa State’s defense. He has 22 total tackles this year to lead the team. Tamatoa McDonough has a team-high two sacks, too. Domonique Orange is a massive threat on the defensive line.
“I think that all those things are real, and all those things obviously would be an excuse if we didn’t get better this week,” Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell said. “It’s going to be hot everywhere, not just in Jonesboro, right? The reality of it is, the last scrimmage we had was at four o’clock and 107 degrees real feel temperature. So, we’ve been there. We prepared for this, and you know what it takes, physically, to prepare yourself to do that.”
Iowa State is averaging 540 yards per game, which ranks 18th in the country. They are the 22nd-ranked pass offense while also placing 29th in rushing the ball. The Cyclones are scoring 47.5 points per game, ranking 18th.
On defense, the Cyclones are allowing 403 yards per game, placing them 101st. They are the 100th-ranked pass defense and 101st-ranked rush defense.
Iowa State is 2-0-1 against the spread this season. They covered as a 3-point underdog to Kansas State and followed it by covering the spread against South Dakota as a 16.5-point favorite. The Cyclones pushed against Iowa as they were 3-point favorites. The under is 2-1 this season with the over hitting against South Dakota.
First home game against a Power-Four school in 10 years for Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 1-1 this season. They opened their schedule with a 42-24 win over SE Missouri State at home. The Red Wolves followed it with a big loss to Arkansas on the road. The last time Arkansas State played a big-time program at home dates back to 2015. They welcomed Missouri, where they lost 27-20. The Red Wolves were expected to play Miami at home, but the Hurricanes backed out and Arkansas State subsequently sued the school over it in 2017.
In their last game, the Red Wolves lost 56-14 to Arkansas on the road on Saturday, Sept. 6. The Red Wolves grabbed an early touchdown thanks to a Chauncy Cobb 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that cut Arkansas’ lead to 14-7. Arkansas State scored their second touchdown in the second quarter from a 2-yard passing score from Jaylen Raynor to Cameron Ambrose. The Red Wolves’ offense would go dry as they did nothing in the second half.
Raynor threw for 125 yards on 21-for-33 passing with one touchdown and two interceptions against the Razorbacks. Arkansas State rushed for 153 yards, but no individual had more than 38 yards in the defeat. It just goes to show the difference between SEC and lower level college football. Raynor threw for 345 yards in the opening game of the season against SE Missouri State. He tossed three touchdowns in the game.
On defense, linebacker Nigel Nelson is leading the team with 18 tackles. The Red Wolves have accounted for just three sacks this season with Cody Sigler leading with 1.5 sacks. The defense has also forced three turnovers so far.
“This is one of the best teams I’ve seen in a long time coming into Centennial Bank Stadium in Iowa State,” Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones said. “In all my years doing this, maybe the best coached team I’ve seen in all three phases working together. They all compliment each other, not many transfers on their team and their starting lineup, so they’ve been very selective in who they’ve allowed to come into their football program. And really to be honest with you, their style of play, the way they play, their fundamentals, their details, it’s a team we aspire to be.”
Arkansas State is averaging 388.5 yards per game, which ranks 77th. They are the 63rd passing offense while they are also placed 85th in rushing the ball.
On defense, Arkansas State is allowing 497 yards of offense through the first two games, placing them 130th. They rank 123rd in pass defense and 122nd in rush defense.
The Red Wolves are 1-1 against the spread this season. They did not cover as 23.5-point underdogs against Arkansas. However, they did cover as a 14.5-point favorite versus SE Missouri St. The over is 2-0 through the first two games, too.
Iowa State vs Arkansas State Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,570.00 |
| 2 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,223.00 |
| 3 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,000.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +916.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +706.00 |
Spread Pick for Iowa State vs Arkansas State
- Iowa State -21 (5 units)
Iowa State comes to Arkansas State for a big game. This is one where the Cyclones hope to keep their good form alive while the Red Wolves are seeking the upset. Last year, Iowa State dominated Arkansas State with a 52-7 win. This game won’t be a blowout, but Iowa State will secure an easy win. The Cyclones have looked good at every challenge through the first month of the season. They earned a win overseas while securing an easy victory over an FCS school while also defeating their in-state rival. Quarterback Rocco Becht is a major component of this success as he hasn’t turned the ball over this year and hasn’t been sacked in the past two games.
Arkansas State was not up for the challenge against Arkansas last year as they lost by 42 points. This could be another tough game for the team if they cannot move the ball. The Red Wolves finished with just 125 passing yards and two interceptions. Iowa State’s defensive line is one of the best in the country, and they should pressure the ball at will. Expect the Cyclones to show their force in the rushing attack on offense and getting tackles for a loss on defense despite the hostile road environment.
Take Iowa State to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Iowa State vs Arkansas State
- Under 55.5 (5 units)
Iowa State’s defense dominated Iowa last week. The Cyclones can hang their hat on pressuring the quarterback and getting tackles for a loss. They’ve shown it all season with wins over Kansas State and South Dakota. I expect Saturday to be no different and this will force Arkansas State to continue to run the ball, killing the clock. Long possessions will be key for Iowa State as they try to quiet down the Red Wolves ' home-field advantage. This should be a low scoring game, especially with this high of a total set.
Take the Under on Saturday.
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