Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Spark Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 11, 2025
Las Vegas Aces (29-14) vs. Los Angeles Sparks (21-22)
The 2025 WNBA regular season closes down Thursday, September 11, with the Western Conference showdown at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California, so we’ve prepared the Aces vs. Sparks prediction to get you covered.
The Aces look to clinch their four-game regular-season series against the Sparks. Las Vegas is 2-1 SU and ATS versus Los Angeles in 2025. Their last encounter occurred on July 29, when the Aces beat the Sparks 89-74 as slight 1.5-point road favorites.
Las Vegas is an 11.5-point fave this time around, while the total sits at 167.5 points. The tip-off is set at 10:00 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this Aces vs. Sparks prediction, one of our WNBA picks for Thursday’s slate.
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The Aces are chasing history
The Las Vegas Aces are rolling on a 15-game winning streak. Interestingly, the Los Angeles Sparks hold the record for the longest regular-season winning streak with 18. The Aces will come a step closer to that record if they beat the Sparks on Thursday night.
During their 15-game win streak, the Aces have covered the spread on 11 occasions. Last Tuesday, Las Vegas trounced the lowly Chicago Sky 92-61 at home, covering a 17.5-point spread with ease. The Aces shot 54.8% from the field (15-for-29 from deep), and Jackie Young led the way with 15 points and seven assists.
Las Vegas is tied with the Atlanta Dream for the No. 2 seed in the WNBA. The Aces hold the tiebreaker over the Dream, so Las Vegas needs a win over Los Angeles to clinch the second seed. Atlanta visits Connecticut on Wednesday night, and the Dream will almost certainly beat the lowly Sun.
The Sparks have nothing to play for
The Los Angeles Sparks will miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year and finish the season as the ninth-best team in the WNBA. They’ve won four of their previous six games overall but couldn’t catch the Seattle Storm.
Last Tuesday, the Sparks beat the Phoenix Mercury 88-83 as 6.5-point road underdogs. Los Angeles shot 42.0% from the field (9-for-31 from downtown) while posting a 21/10 assist-to-turnover ratio. Dearica Hamby led the charge with 25 points, nine rebounds, and five assists, and Kelsey Plum added 17 points and five dishes.
The Sparks score 85.9 points per game (2nd in the WNBA) on 45.8% shooting from the field (also 2nd). However, the Sparks have struggled to defend all season, allowing 87.9 points per game (12th) on 45.3% shooting from the field (11th).
Aces vs. Sparks Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Aces vs. Sparks
- Aces -11.5 (5 units)
The Aces rank sixth in the WNBA in points scored (83.2 per game) and seventh in points allowed (80.9). However, the Aces have improved a lot over the last few weeks. Their defense finally looks solid, while on the other side of the ball, the Aces have surpassed an 80-point mark in 10 of their previous 13 outings at any location.
Hereof, I will go with the Aces, even though I don’t feel comfortable with an 11.5-point spread. The Sparks certainly lack motivation, and they could easily decide to rest some of their key players. Moreover, the Sparks are one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Over/Under Pick for Aces vs. Sparks
- Over 167.5 (5 units)
The Sparks play at the fastest pace in the WNBA, tallying 79.0 possessions per 40 minutes. They can score, but the Sparks’ defense will struggle to contain the Aces. The last time they met, Las Vegas made 46.1% of its field goals, and A’ja Wilson tortured the Sparks for 34 points and 10 rebounds.
Los Angeles won’t be able to slow Wilson down. I expect the Aces to score at will, so give me the over on the total. Hopefully, the Sparks will score enough to push the total over the line. Los Angeles has accounted for at least 81 points in five of its previous six games overall.
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