Liberty vs. Bowling Green, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 13, 2025
Liberty (1-1, 0-1 C-USA) will be trying to pick up their first road win of the season when they visit Doyt L. Perry Stadium on Saturday afternoon to face Bowling Green (1-1, 0-0 MAC) at 5 PM. ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Flames vs. Falcons prediction. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
The Flames are coming off a 34-24 loss to Jacksonville State as six-point favorites. The Falcons are coming off a 34-20 loss to Cincinnati as 22.5-point underdogs.
Bowling Green and Liberty split their two meetings. The Flames won the last meeting in 2023, 34-24.
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Liberty Trying To Bounce Back From Loss
The Flames followed up their season-opening win over Maine with a loss to Jacksonville State, in a game they were expected to win. They will try to bounce back from the loss and pick up their first road win of the season when they play on Saturday.
Liberty is averaging 26 points per game through two games. They throw for 266 yards and rush for 196.5 yards per game.
Ethan Vasko completed 65 percent of his passes for 335 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in the loss to the Gamecocks. Evan Dickens had 13 carries for 114 yards and one touchdown, while Donte Lee Jr. had two catches for 74 yards and one touchdown.
Liberty is giving up 20.5 points per game through two games. They are giving up 338 rushing yards per game and 52 passing yards per game.
Bowling Green Going For Second Consecutive Home Win
The Falcons followed up their win over Lafayette with a road loss to Cincinnati in their last game. They will try to bounce back from the loss and pick up their second straight home win when they play on Saturday.
Bowling Green is averaging 23 points per game through two games. They’re throwing for 191.5 yards and rushing for 127.5 yards per game.
Drew Pyne completed 80 percent of his passes for 274 yards and one touchdown in the loss to Cincinnati. Cameron Pettaway had 13 carries for 72 yards, while Jyrin Johnson had seven catches for 80 yards and one touchdown.
Bowling Green is giving up 20.5 points per game through two games. They are giving up 333 passing yards and 106 rushing yards per game.
Liberty vs. Bowling Green Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Point Spread Pick for Liberty vs. Bowling Green
- Liberty Flames -5 (4 Units)
The Flames and Falcons split their first two games, but the Flames have the edge here because they’ve been able to throw the ball effectively so far, and they’re going up against a defense that has been unable to stop the pass, giving up over 300 yards per game through the air. Even if the Falcons were able to hold their own against Liberty’s passing attack, their run defense also isn’t very good and the Flames are averaging close to 200 yards per game on the ground, which points to them struggling defensively in this game.
The Falcons won’t fare much better offensively because they’re a pass-heavy team and don’t run the ball much, which will make them one-dimensional. Without the threat of a legitimate run game, the Flames will be able to keep pressure on Pyne and force him to make costly mistakes. Take Liberty to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Liberty vs. Bowling Green
- Over 51 (4 Units)
The Falcons played over the total in three of their last four games. Bowling Green averages 23 points per game. They throw the ball 55 percent of the time. Even though the Flames have the third-best pass defense in the country, their secondary isn’t as good as the numbers indicate because opponents are rushing for over 300 yards against them and haven’t had to throw as much, so expect the Falcons to be able to move the ball against a defense that gave up 34 points per game in their first game against a decent offensive team.
The Flames average 26.5 points per game. They run the ball 53 percent of the time, racking up more than 190 yards per game, and they’re facing the 134th ranked run defense in the country. Expect these teams to score enough points to push the score over the total.
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