Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 13, 2025
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (0-2) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (1-1)
Week 3 of the 2025 college football season is here, and in this preview, we are breaking down the non-conference showdown from Mackay Stadium in Reno, NV, to get you the best Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada prediction.
Saturday brings a ton of interesting matchups, including the first-ever meeting between Middle Tennessee and Nevada. The Wolf Pack are 8.5-point home favorites with a total of 47.5 points.
Read more about this Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 3. The kick-off at Mackay Stadium is set at 5:00 PM ET.
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Middle Tennessee’s losing streak continues
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have dropped five straight games dating back to the previous season. They started the new campaign with a shocking 34-14 home loss against the FCS Austin Peay Governors, playing as 15.5-point favorites. A week later, the Blue Raiders failed to cover a 28.5-point spread in a 42-10 road loss against Wisconsin.
Middle Tennessee racked up just 153 total yards in Week 1. The Blue Raiders failed to convert a single third down (0-for-12) while rushing 22 times for 44 yards. Senior QB Nicholas Vattiato completed just 15 of his 36 passing attempts for 104 yards and two touchdowns, while junior WR Nahzae Cox had six receptions for 50 yards and two scores.
Last Saturday, the Blue Raiders posted 241 total yards at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. They failed to score in the second half while allowing 28 points to Wisconsin. The Blue Raiders’ ground game struggled once more, notching 33 yards on 28 carries, while Vattiato threw for 197 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.
Last season, Vattiato threw for 3,092 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Middle Tennessee went 3-9 overall and 2-6 in conference play. The Blue Raiders ranked 127th in the country in points scored (18.1 per game) and 120th in points allowed (34.3).
Nevada hopes to stay on track
The Nevada Wolf Pack started their 2025 campaign with a 46-11 road loss against the No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions. The Wolf Pack lost the turnover battle 3-0 and were outgained 438-203 in total yards, but they managed to cover a huge 42.5-point spread. Senior QB Chubba Purdy threw for 97 yards and an interception, while junior signal-caller AJ Bianco tossed for 28 yards and a touchdown in relief.
The Wolf Pack bounced back in Week 2, outlasting the FCS Sacramento State Hornets 20-17 as 9.5-point home favorites. Nevada overcame a 17-10 deficit, and Jonathan Maldonado’s pick-six lifted the Wolf Pack over the Hornets. The Wolf Pack rushed 47 times for 270 yards, while Chubba Purdy went 12-of-21 for 144 yards and two interceptions. Purdy led the ground game with 21 carries for 115 yards and a touchdown.
Nevada needs more from Purdy, who appeared in seven games last season, throwing for 239 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. The Wolf Pack relied on Brendon Lewis in 2024, and Lewis transferred to Memphis in the offseason. He tossed for 2,290 yards, 16 touchdowns, and seven interceptions in 2024 while rushing for 775 yards and eight scores.
The Wolf Pack went 3-10 overall and 0-7 in conference play last season. They ranked 105th in the nation in scoring offense (23.1 points per game) and 94th in scoring defense (28.8).
Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada
- Middle Tennessee +8.5 (5 units)
This is the clash between a couple of lousy teams. They’ve struggled to move the chains over the last couple of weeks, so I expect to see a tight battle for all 60 minutes. Nevada should come out on top, but covering an 8.5-point spread might be a tall task for the Wolf Pack.
The Blue Raiders played well in the first half of the Wisconsin game. If they continue to improve, the Blue Raiders will keep it close against the Wolf Pack.
The betting trends won’t help a lot. Middle Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. On the other side, Nevada is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and 1-7 ATS in its previous eight showings as a favorite.
Over/Under Pick for Middle Tennessee vs. Nevada
- Under 47.5 (5 units)
As I noted, these two teams have struggled to move the ball thus far. The Blue Raiders’ ground game has been nonexistent, while the Wolf Pack’s passing game has been awful. Hereof, I can only look at the under in this game. It’s hard to tell who will win the battle in the trenches.
Middle Tennessee has scored more than 21 points just once in its last 13 games overall. Five of the Blue Raiders’ previous eight contests have gone under the total. Nevada hasn’t scored more than 21 points in five straight outings, and the under has hit four times during that stretch.
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