Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 26, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks will visit the San Diego Padres at Petco Park, and we have you ready to go with our D-Backs vs. Padres prediction. First pitch from America's Finest City is at 6:40 p.m. PT.
San Diego is a -140 moneyline favorite, and the game total is eight runs scored.
This is the final regular-season series for both of these NL West ballclubs. The Diamondbacks and Padres have split their previous ten meetings, and the over/under was also split 5-5 in those games. If you want the D-Backs vs. Padres prediction, read on and check out our MLB Predictions to beat the sportsbooks!
Diamondbacks face uphill battle in NL Wild Card race
Arizona (80-79 SU, 78-81 RL, and 76-73-10 O/U) lost two of three against Los Angeles (NL) in its previous series. The Diamondbacks are 6-4 in their last ten games (the over was split 5-4-1).
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Arizona will turn to right-hander Zac Gallen tomorrow against San Diego. In his last start, the 30-year-old allowed three runs on four hits with nine Ks in seven frames against Philadelphia. He is 13-14 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 32 appearances (187.2 IP) this year, including 7-7 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 15 road games at Chase Field (89.0 IP).
The Diamondbacks had a solid year in 2024, winning 89 games, but the ballclub couldn't build off of 2023's World Series appearance. With Los Angeles leading the pack and San Diego and San Francisco eager to stay competitive, the competition in the NL West has been as fierce as ever. Arizona has turned it on recently, sneaking back into the NL Wild Card picture. Can the D-Backs chase down the final spot in the postseason?
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report: No injuries to report for Friday's game against the Padres.
San Diego will be second Wild Card seed in NL
San Diego (87-72 SU, 86-73 RL, and 67-86-6 O/U) won two of three against Milwaukee in its previous series. The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games (the over/under was split 5-5).
San Diego will turn to righty Yu Darvish on Friday against Arizona. In his last outing (4.2 IP no-decision vs the White Sox), the 39-year-old surrendered two runs on six hits, fanning four batters. He is 4-5 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 14 starts (67.0 IP), including 3-2 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven home starts (36.0 IP).
San Diego was off to a hot start to the second half of this season, briefly overaking the Dodgers for the lead position in the division race. The Friars are only three games out of first in the NL West, but they won't be able to catch up to Los Angeles. San Diego has played well in front of its home crowd, compiling a 49-29 record, including 18-11 since the All-Star break. Can the Padres play consistently enough to make a deep run in the 2025 MLB postseason?
San Diego Padres Baseball Injury Report: LF Ramon Laureano (finger) is out, and RF Fernando Tatis (illness) is questionable for Friday's game against the D-Backs.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Pick
Moneyline Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Padres
- D-Backs ML +120 (5 Units)
Friday's game is as close to a must-win game for Arizona. After Thursday's loss, the D-Backs are two games out of the Wild Card picture, with Cincinnati now a full game ahead of them. San Diego is officially locked into a Wild Card matchup with Chicago, making this series unimportant in the big picture for them. With Laureano sidelined and Tatis' status unknown due to an illness, the Friars' lineup could be without two key bats tomorrow, too.
I expect Gallen, who held San Diego to one run with nine strikeouts in six innings the last time they faced, to outpitch Darvish. The Padres' starter has rarely pitched past the fifth inning and allowed five runs in 7.2 combined innings against Arizona earlier this season. Current D-Backs hitters have a .370 wOBA and .508 SLG against him (152 plate appearances). San Diego has a much better relief unit, but I wonder how eager manager Mike Shildt will be to employ his top arms in this series.
With that said, I like the value of a wager on the Arizona ML at +120 odds.
Over/Under Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Padres
- Under 8 (4 Units)
I question how competitive the Padres will be tomorrow. They only managed one run in their last game and will be without at least one, if not two, of their top hitters. Gallen hasn't had his best season, but I expect the reliable veteran to pitch well in an important game for the Diamondbacks. It wouldn't shock me if he pitched six or seven innings, taking a lot of pressure off the usually unreliable Arizona bullpen. If the Padres' offense looks like it did in Wednesday's game, the under is the best play on the total in Friday's series opener.
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