Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday June 22 2026
Use Code WWWC Arizona visits St. Louis with updated picks, pitching analysis, and top MLB player props for Monday night.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks (+120 at FanDuel) / St. Louis Cardinals (-142 at FanDuel)
Best Spread Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-178 at FanDuel) / St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+146 at FanDuel)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-114 at FanDuel) / Under 8.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
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Game Info
Date: June 22, 2026
Time: 7:45 PM EDT
Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
TV: Cardinals.TV, DBACKS.TV
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks enter Monday at 39-38 after losing two of three games against the Minnesota Twins. Arizona dropped Sunday's series finale 4-2 despite receiving five-plus scoreless innings from rookie José Cabrera in his major-league debut.
The Diamondbacks generated only six hits and went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position during the loss. They drew five walks but repeatedly failed to convert those baserunners into runs, leaving eight men on base.
Arizona has scored approximately 4.3 runs per game. The offense remains dangerous at the top through Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, Geraldo Perdomo, Tommy Troy, and Nolan Arenado, but its production has been inconsistent against right-handed pitching.
Carroll is the centre of Arizona's offense. He enters batting approximately .281 with a .918 OPS, 13 home runs, and a combination of power, speed, and plate discipline that makes him dangerous from the opening plate appearance.
Carroll recently produced three hits and four RBIs in Arizona's 9-5 victory over Minnesota. That performance included a bases-loaded triple that created late separation and demonstrated his ability to change a game through extra-base contact.
Marte has added 12 home runs and 46 RBIs, while Moreno has been Arizona's hottest contact hitter. Moreno enters batting above .350 over his last seven games and has provided a strong combination of hits, walks, and extra-base production.
The Diamondbacks are dealing with substantial pitching injuries. Michael Soroka was placed on the injured list with a left glute strain after leaving Friday's start against Minnesota, while Ryne Nelson is also unavailable.
Jordan Lawlar joined Soroka on the injured list after straining his right hamstring. Lawlar had recently returned from a fractured wrist and was batting .316 through 12 appearances.
Arizona's depleted rotation and bullpen place additional pressure on Merrill Kelly to provide competitive innings. The Diamondbacks cannot afford another short start before beginning a four-game series against a St. Louis lineup that has recently found its power.
The St. Louis Cardinals enter at 41-34 and remain in the National League playoff picture. St. Louis snapped a three-game losing streak Sunday with a 12-10 victory over Kansas City.
The Cardinals finished with a season-high 16 hits and three home runs. JJ Wetherholt hit two homers, Ivan Herrera added a three-run shot, and Masyn Winn collected two hits while driving in four runs.
St. Louis has scored approximately 4.55 runs per game and owns the more productive offense in this matchup. The Cardinals have several left-handed hitters capable of exploiting Kelly's most vulnerable platoon split.
Wetherholt has developed into one of the league's most complete rookies. His combination of contact, on-base ability, defense, speed, and improving power gives St. Louis an immediate threat near the top of the order.
Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals with 18 home runs, 58 RBIs, and 85 hits. He enters batting approximately .291 with a .531 slugging percentage and one of the strongest hard-contact profiles in the St. Louis lineup.
Herrera leads the team in on-base percentage and gives the Cardinals another dangerous right-handed bat. Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Masyn Winn, Nathan Church, Blaze Jordan, and the rest of the available lineup provide depth around the primary run producers.
Nootbaar has quickly made an impact after missing the opening months following heel surgery. He has recorded at least one hit in six of his first seven games back and has brought additional patience and left-handed power to the middle of the order.
The Cardinals are missing reliever Ryan Fernandez because of lower-back pain. Infielder Ramón Urías remains on the 60-day injured list after suffering setbacks with elbow injuries.
St. Louis' bullpen remains a source of concern. The relief staff carries an ERA above four, and several late-inning pitchers have been inconsistent. That weakness gives Arizona a chance to remain competitive if it can force Pallante from the game before the seventh inning.
Starting Pitchers and Pitching Matchup
The Diamondbacks will start right-hander Merrill Kelly, who enters at 5-6 with a 5.81 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts across 69.2 innings.
Kelly has allowed 15 home runs and 28 walks. His strikeout rate has fallen below 14%, leaving him with fewer ways to escape innings once opposing hitters begin producing hard contact.
The right-hander has allowed an average exit velocity above 91 mph and one of the highest barrel rates among qualified starting pitchers. Opponents have consistently elevated his mistakes rather than settling for singles.
Kelly's reduced strikeout production is particularly damaging. Pitchers who allow frequent fly balls can survive when they also miss bats, but Kelly has not generated enough strikeouts to offset his home-run and hard-contact problems.
Left-handed hitters have presented the greatest concern. Kelly has allowed substantial expected production and power against lefties, creating favourable matchups for Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, and any additional left-handed bats in the St. Louis lineup.
The Cardinals can force Kelly to work through several difficult plate appearances before reaching the bottom of the order. Wetherholt and Herrera can create traffic before Burleson, Walker, and Nootbaar receive run-producing opportunities.
Kelly does own a strong career history against St. Louis. He is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA across four previous appearances against the Cardinals.
That record provides evidence that Kelly can execute at Busch Stadium, but his current pitch quality is substantially less reliable than during his strongest previous seasons. The 2026 velocity, strikeout, and contact indicators carry more weight than older head-to-head results.
Lars Nootbaar has two hits, including a home run, across 11 career plate appearances against Kelly. Jordan Walker is 1-for-7 with three strikeouts, but his current power production makes him a much more dangerous matchup than the small career sample indicates.
The Cardinals counter with right-hander Andre Pallante, who enters at 8-4 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 62 strikeouts across 76.2 innings.
Pallante has been one of St. Louis' most dependable starters. He is 5-1 with a 3.20 ERA across his last seven appearances and has completed at least six innings in five of those starts.
The right-hander delivered seven strong innings against San Diego in his latest outing. Pallante allowed two runs on four hits, struck out six, and led the Cardinals to a 3-2 victory.
Pallante has improved his command and first-pitch strike rate while adjusting his pitch mix. His sinker remains an important weapon, but he has used a deeper collection of sliders, splitters, and four-seam fastballs to prevent hitters from sitting on one movement pattern.
His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are substantially lower than Kelly's. Pallante has limited opponents to an expected weighted on-base average close to .300 while rarely allowing the clusters of barrels that create multi-run innings.
Arizona has struggled against right-handed pitching, carrying a slash line near .226/.301/.364. That split makes the Diamondbacks less threatening than their collection of recognizable offensive names might suggest.
Carroll and Marte remain capable of producing immediate damage, while Moreno enters in excellent form. Pallante must still avoid falling behind those hitters and bringing his sinker into predictable locations.
Carroll is 2-for-5 with two walks against Pallante. Perdomo is 2-for-6, while Marte is hitless in three at-bats with two strikeouts.
Those samples are limited, but Carroll's combination of contact and patience makes him Arizona's most difficult individual matchup. Pallante's ability to limit the hitters surrounding him will be more important than trying to prevent Carroll from reaching base entirely.
Game Thesis: St. Louis owns the clear starting-pitching advantage. Kelly has struggled to miss bats, limit barrels, and prevent home runs, while Pallante has gone 5-1 with a 3.20 ERA across his last seven starts. The Cardinals' left-handed hitters match up particularly well with Kelly, but Pallante and the inward wind at Busch Stadium should limit Arizona's contribution. St. Louis should score enough to win without requiring the full game to become an offensive shootout.
⭐ Best Bet - Moneyline Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (-142)
The Cardinals moneyline is the strongest game wager. St. Louis owns the better starting pitcher, stronger offense, home-field advantage, and a lineup built to attack Kelly's greatest weaknesses.
Kelly enters with a 5.81 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and only 42 strikeouts in 69.2 innings. He has also allowed 15 home runs, creating a difficult combination of baserunners, hard contact, and limited swing-and-miss production.
The Cardinals can immediately pressure him through Wetherholt, Herrera, Burleson, Walker, and Nootbaar. Several of those hitters either bat left-handed or possess enough power to punish Kelly when he is forced into the strike zone.
Pallante provides a much stronger foundation. He has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts and enters after completing seven innings against San Diego.
Arizona's offense remains dangerous through Carroll, Marte, and Moreno, but the Diamondbacks have struggled collectively against right-handed pitching. Pallante's improved strike-throwing should prevent Arizona from creating excessive traffic through walks.
The primary risk comes after the starters exit. St. Louis' bullpen has not consistently protected leads, and Arizona possesses enough late-game talent to create a comeback opportunity.
The Cardinals should nevertheless enter the later innings with an advantage. At a price near -142, St. Louis offers a more dependable position than requiring the home team to win by multiple runs.
Spread Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+146)
The Cardinals run line provides an attractive plus-money alternative. Kelly's contact profile gives St. Louis a realistic path to scoring five or more runs and creating early separation.
St. Louis scored 12 runs Sunday and has reached at least six in three consecutive games. The lineup has received production from multiple levels rather than depending on one individual hitter.
Wetherholt, Herrera, Burleson, Walker, and Nootbaar can create difficult innings before Kelly reaches Winn and the supporting portion of the lineup. Kelly's low strikeout rate makes it difficult for him to stop a rally once several hitters reach base.
The Diamondbacks bullpen also owns an ERA above four and is managing a heavy injury burden. A short Kelly start would force Arizona to cover four or five innings with a relief group that has not consistently limited damage.
Pallante gives St. Louis a realistic opportunity to hold Arizona to three runs or fewer. The Diamondbacks' poor performance against right-handed pitching supports a score such as 5-3 or 6-3.
The danger is the St. Louis bullpen. A comfortable lead can narrow quickly if Pallante exits before the late innings or if Arizona creates favourable matchups against the middle-relief group.
The +146 return compensates for that volatility. The run line is playable for bettors seeking greater upside, while the moneyline remains the strongest overall position.
Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-106)
The Under 8.5 is the preferred total. Kelly creates significant risk on the Arizona side, but Pallante and the Diamondbacks' struggles against right-handed pitching should prevent both offenses from producing large totals.
Arizona owns a .665 OPS against right-handers. Carroll, Marte, and Moreno can generate runs, but the lineup has not consistently extended rallies or produced extra-base damage from the lower portion of the order.
Pallante has allowed softer contact and fewer barrels than Kelly. He has also improved his command, reducing the free baserunners that often turn one extra-base hit into a multi-run inning.
The weather also supports the Under. Temperatures are expected to remain in the low 70s with wind blowing inward at approximately nine mph, reducing some of the carry on elevated contact.
St. Louis may still approach or exceed five runs because of Kelly's poor form. The Under therefore depends on Pallante holding Arizona near two or three runs and the Cardinals bullpen avoiding a late collapse.
Arizona's bullpen has been vulnerable, but the St. Louis offense does not need to score eight or nine runs for the Cardinals picks to cash. A controlled 5-3 or 5-2 result supports both the moneyline and the Under.
The Over becomes dangerous if Kelly exits before the fifth inning or if St. Louis' bullpen allows Arizona back into the game. The pitching and environmental factors nevertheless make Under 8.5 the more disciplined full-game position.
Top Player Prop Picks
Jordan Walker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-135 at DraftKings) Walker enters batting .291 with 18 home runs, 58 RBIs, and a .531 slugging percentage. He leads the Cardinals in several major power and run-production categories.
The combined market gives Walker multiple routes to clear the line. One home run would immediately produce at least one hit, one run, and one RBI.
He can also cash with one hit and one run, a hit and an RBI, or two separate productive plate appearances. That flexibility is valuable against a pitcher likely to permit several baserunners.
Kelly has allowed frequent barrels and hard contact while striking out only 13.6% of opposing hitters. Walker should receive multiple opportunities to put the ball in play with Wetherholt, Herrera, and Burleson reaching base ahead of him.
Walker owns an average exit velocity above 94 mph and a hard-hit rate above 50%. His power profile directly attacks Kelly's inability to suppress elevated contact.
The Cardinals are projected to score approximately five runs, making Walker one of the most likely hitters to participate in multiple scoring events.
Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 Hits (-190) Nootbaar has recorded at least one hit in six of his first seven games since returning from heel surgery. He collected two hits Sunday and has quickly re-established himself as an important part of the St. Louis lineup.
The left-handed hitter receives the favourable platoon matchup against Kelly. The Arizona starter has allowed substantial hard contact and expected production to lefties.
Nootbaar also owns a career home run against Kelly. He is 2-for-10 with one walk in their previous meetings, giving him some direct familiarity with the right-hander's pitch mix.
Kelly's low strikeout rate should allow Nootbaar to put multiple balls in play. One line drive, ground ball through the infield, or elevated mistake is enough to cash the prop.
Nootbaar should bat in the middle of the order and receive at least four plate appearances if the Cardinals create offense as expected. He may also face Arizona's depleted bullpen during the later innings.
The price is expensive, but the platoon advantage, current hitting run, and favourable opposing contact profile support at least one hit.
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 Hits (-238) Carroll enters batting approximately .281 with 13 home runs and an OPS above .900. He remains Arizona's most reliable combination of contact, patience, speed, and extra-base power.
He has also produced two hits and two walks across seven career plate appearances against Pallante. The sample is limited but demonstrates that Carroll has tracked the right-hander effectively.
Carroll recently recorded three hits against Minnesota and delivered four RBIs. He should bat first, maximizing his expected number of plate appearances in a game Arizona may trail during the later innings.
Pallante is pitching well and should limit Arizona's overall offense, but the prop only requires Carroll to record one hit. He does not need the Diamondbacks to win or generate a large scoring total.
Carroll's speed also converts some weakly hit ground balls into infield hits. His ability to produce through several contact types makes him more dependable than Arizona's lower-order hitters.
The heavy price limits the upside, but Carroll's season-long production, lineup position, and direct success against Pallante make the Over the preferred side.
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