Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday June 25 2026
Use Code WWWC The Diamondbacks seek a third straight win in St. Louis as Zac Gallen faces Michael McGreevy in Thursday's series finale.
This preview breaks down the latest lines, pitching matchup, recent form, bullpen outlook, and top MLB player props for Thursday night's game.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks (+113 at ESPN BET) / St. Louis Cardinals (-130 at Caesars)
Best Spread Odds: Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185) / St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+160 at FanDuel)
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Best Total Odds: Over 9.0 (+100 at ESPN BET) / Under 9.0 (-115 at FanDuel)
Game Info
Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
Time: 7:45 PM EDT
Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
TV: Cardinals.TV, D-backs.TV
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks enter Thursday at 41-39 after winning consecutive games and taking a 2-1 advantage in this four-game series.
Arizona dropped Monday's opener 3-2 despite receiving two hits apiece from Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. The Diamondbacks went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and failed to convert several opportunities against Andre Pallante and the St. Louis bullpen.
The series changed Tuesday. Eduardo Rodriguez and Kyle Leahy matched scoreless innings through the first eight before Arizona finally broke through against Matt Svanson.
Gabriel Moreno singled, Pavin Smith walked, and former Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado delivered a two-run double. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. added another run-scoring hit before Arizona scored on a passed ball.
St. Louis rallied for three runs during the bottom of the ninth, forcing Arizona to use Brandyn Garcia after Paul Sewald failed to finish the game. Garcia struck out JJ Wetherholt to secure a 4-3 victory and his first career save.
Arizona produced a more complete performance Wednesday.
The Diamondbacks scored six times during the fourth inning and won 9-4. LuJames Groover hit the first home run of his major-league career before Marte followed with a 416-foot shot.
Tommy Troy finished 2-for-5 with a double, two RBIs, and two runs. Ildemaro Vargas also drove in two, while Moreno contributed a sacrifice fly and scored twice.
The victory represented an important offensive response after Arizona had struggled to sustain rallies during the opening two games.
The Diamondbacks enter batting approximately .239 with a .310 on-base percentage and .386 slugging percentage. They have scored 346 runs and hit 71 home runs.
Those full-season numbers place Arizona behind St. Louis in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, and home runs.
Carroll remains the most dangerous complete hitter in the available lineup.
He enters batting approximately .279 with a .365 on-base percentage, .537 slugging percentage, 13 home runs, 42 RBIs, and nine stolen bases.
Carroll collected two hits Monday and started Wednesday's six-run inning with a single. His speed and aggressive baserunning place immediate pressure on the defense whenever he reaches.
McGreevy is a strike-throwing pitcher who prefers early contact. Carroll can challenge that approach by attacking a hittable pitch before the Cardinals starter reaches two strikes.
The right-handed matchup also gives Carroll the platoon advantage. McGreevy must prevent him from pulling sinkers or breaking pitches into right field.
Marte supplies Arizona's most established power from the middle infield.
He enters batting approximately .265 with 13 home runs and a .461 slugging percentage.
Marte has recorded hits in all three games of the series. His home run Wednesday capped the largest Arizona inning of the week.
The switch hitter should bat from the left side against McGreevy. That provides another platoon advantage near the top of the order.
Geraldo Perdomo gives Arizona an important on-base hitter even during a season in which his batting average has remained near .230.
Perdomo has drawn approximately 48 walks. His patience can force McGreevy away from the quick contact that normally allows the right-hander to work deep into games.
Arenado adds another experienced right-handed bat. He has recorded an RBI during two of the first three games against his former team.
The third baseman's overall power has declined, but his familiarity with Busch Stadium and ability to drive mistakes toward left field remain useful.
Gurriel has also delivered important production during the series.
He drove in two runs Tuesday and added an RBI double Wednesday. His aggressive approach can work against McGreevy if the starter attempts to steal early strikes over the middle of the plate.
Moreno gives Arizona another contact-oriented hitter. He reached base and scored during the six-run inning Wednesday before adding an eighth-inning sacrifice fly.
Troy and Groover provided unexpected lower-order production in the third game.
Troy has homered during the series and produced two extra-base hits. Groover's first major-league home run gives Arizona another young hitter capable of punishing a mistake.
The challenge is determining whether that performance represents a sustainable offensive improvement.
Arizona ranks last in weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitching over the past month. The lineup has frequently depended on Carroll or Marte to create a large portion of its extra-base production.
McGreevy also presents a more difficult assignment than the version of Matthew Liberatore Arizona faced Wednesday.
The Diamondbacks' pitching staff enters with significant injury concerns.
Ryne Nelson is expected to miss the remainder of the season with an elbow injury. Michael Soroka recently exited after one inning with a hip problem, while A.J. Puk is unavailable with a capsule sprain.
Those injuries forced Arizona to start Mitch Bratt in his major-league debut Wednesday.
Bratt completed only three innings, requiring the bullpen to record the final 18 outs.
Ryan Thompson worked two innings and allowed one run. Drey Jameson handled the ninth and surrendered two more.
Arizona won comfortably enough to avoid using every preferred high-leverage reliever, but the volume of recent bullpen innings remains important.
Sewald struggled during Tuesday's ninth inning, while Arizona's relief group owns a fielding-independent ERA above 5.50 over the past week.
That creates pressure on Gallen to provide innings despite his poor recent form.
The St. Louis Cardinals enter Thursday at 42-36 after losing consecutive games.
The Cardinals remain tied with Chicago for second place in the NL Central, seven games behind Milwaukee.
St. Louis won the opening game of the series through efficient starting pitching and timely contact.
Pallante allowed one run over six innings, while Alec Burleson, Blaze Jordan, and Nathan Church supplied the RBIs.
Wetherholt collected two hits after hitting two home runs during Sunday's 12-10 victory over Kansas City.
The offense struggled to convert opportunities Tuesday. St. Louis loaded the bases against Rodriguez during the sixth inning but failed to score.
The Cardinals then waited until the ninth before producing three runs against Sewald and Garcia.
Wednesday's performance followed a different pattern.
José Fermín scored three runs and hit a solo home run, while Jordan drove in three. St. Louis still spent most of the game chasing a large deficit after Liberatore allowed six runs during the fourth inning.
The Cardinals enter batting approximately .249 with a .327 on-base percentage and .399 slugging percentage.
They have scored 359 runs and hit 88 home runs.
St. Louis has also hit right-handed pitching well during the past month. The Cardinals rank ninth in weighted on-base average and have produced a weighted runs created plus around 121 in that split.
That recent performance creates a favourable matchup against a right-handed starter carrying a 6.10 ERA and .317 opponent batting average.
Burleson remains one of the lineup's most consistent hitters.
He enters batting approximately .288 with a .353 on-base percentage, .490 slugging percentage, 20 doubles, and 13 home runs.
Burleson carries a five-game hitting streak into Thursday. He is batting close to .390 during that stretch.
The left-handed hitter receives the platoon advantage against Gallen. His ability to drive pitches in the middle and lower portions of the strike zone makes him one of the strongest individual matchups.
Jordan Walker gives St. Louis its greatest overall power threat.
Walker enters batting approximately .290 with a .342 on-base percentage and .521 slugging percentage. He leads the Cardinals in hits and slugging percentage.
His long swing can create strikeout opportunities, but Gallen's strikeout rate has fallen considerably this season.
Gallen has recorded only 52 strikeouts across 79.2 innings. That reduced swing-and-miss production forces him to depend on balls in play against hitters such as Walker.
Wetherholt has supplied on-base ability, speed, and developing power during his first full major-league season.
He enters batting approximately .262 with a .361 on-base percentage and 34 RBIs.
Wetherholt hit two home runs Sunday and collected two hits during the series opener. He should receive another premium lineup position against Gallen.
Lars Nootbaar gives St. Louis another left-handed hitter capable of extending plate appearances.
Nootbaar owns two hits and three walks in eight career at-bats against Gallen, including one home run.
The sample remains small, but his patient approach fits the current matchup. Gallen has struggled to put hitters away and has repeatedly allowed deep counts to become hard contact.
Masyn Winn provides contact and speed around the lower or middle portion of the order.
Winn has not faced Gallen extensively, but his ability to put the ball in play creates opportunities against a pitcher allowing more than 10 hits per nine innings.
Fermín may receive another start after producing three runs and a home run Wednesday.
Iván Herrera left that game after tripping awkwardly while running through first base. His uncertain availability could remove the Cardinals' leading on-base hitter from the lineup.
St. Louis still has enough depth through Walker, Burleson, Wetherholt, Nootbaar, Winn, Jordan, Fermín, and Church to create a dangerous matchup.
The Cardinals bullpen has been inconsistent despite Riley O'Brien converting 19 saves.
Matt Svanson allowed Arizona's four-run ninth Tuesday. Gordon Graceffo and Justin Bruihl then surrendered additional scoring during Wednesday's loss.
St. Louis owns a bullpen FIP above 6.00 across the past two weeks.
O'Brien, JoJo Romero, and George Soriano avoided the heaviest Wednesday workload, leaving the Cardinals with several preferred late-game options.
McGreevy's ability to complete six innings would allow St. Louis to move directly toward those relievers rather than exposing the weakest middle-inning arms.
Starting Pitchers and Pitching Matchup
Arizona will start right-hander Zac Gallen, who enters at 3-6 with a 6.10 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 52 strikeouts across 79.2 innings.
Gallen's reputation remains considerably stronger than his 2026 performance.
He entered the season as Arizona's established ace, but his strikeout rate, command, and contact prevention have all declined.
Opponents are batting approximately .317 against him. Gallen has allowed 25 walks and significantly more than one hit per inning.
His latest start was the worst of the season.
Minnesota scored nine earned runs and collected 12 hits against Gallen during four innings. He walked two and struck out two.
The Twins repeatedly attacked pitches in the strike zone and prevented Gallen from establishing any reliable secondary offering.
The outing raised his ERA from 5.35 to 6.10.
Gallen's previous start was more encouraging. He allowed three runs on six hits over six innings against Cincinnati.
That performance did not begin a sustained turnaround.
Gallen has allowed at least six hits during six consecutive starts. The totals during that stretch are 12, six, nine, nine, eight, and six.
He owns an 8.88 ERA and 2.05 WHIP across his past five appearances.
Gallen has also recorded four or fewer strikeouts in five consecutive starts.
The decline in strikeout production is especially concerning.
During his strongest seasons, Gallen could escape traffic by generating swings and misses with his curveball and changeup.
He now carries a strikeout rate close to 14%, well below his established career level.
When the put-away pitch fails, hitters receive additional opportunities to attack his fastball.
St. Louis is built to exploit that problem.
Burleson, Walker, Wetherholt, Nootbaar, and Winn can all put the ball in play. The Cardinals also strike out at one of baseball's lowest rates against left-handed pitching, although Thursday's right-handed matchup remains favourable through their recent form.
Gallen has made four career starts against St. Louis.
He owns a 1-2 record and 3.91 ERA with 25 strikeouts across 23 innings.
Those career results are respectable but carry limited predictive value because the current version of Gallen has not produced the same velocity, command, or strikeout efficiency.
Arizona needs him to complete at least five or six innings after using six relief innings Wednesday.
Gallen has worked more than six innings only rarely this season. He has completed six full innings in four of 16 starts and has not recorded an out during the seventh.
Another early exit would create significant scoring opportunities for St. Louis against Arizona's middle relief.
The Cardinals counter with right-hander Michael McGreevy, who enters at 3-6 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts across 83.1 innings.
McGreevy has produced a much stronger season than his win-loss record suggests.
He does not rely on elite strikeout totals. His success comes through strike throwing, controlled contact, and enough command to avoid extended traffic.
McGreevy averages approximately 3.5 strikeouts per start. His strikeout rate sits near 16%.
The lower swing-and-miss total means opponents will place balls in play. St. Louis must support him with clean defense.
McGreevy's latest start was his most difficult performance since May.
Kansas City scored five earned runs and collected eight hits across five innings. McGreevy walked one and struck out two.
The outing ended a run of three consecutive six-inning starts with two earned runs allowed.
He completed six innings against Texas, Cincinnati, and Minnesota, allowing five, five, and seven hits.
McGreevy has completed at least six innings in eight of his last 10 appearances.
That workload gives St. Louis an important structural advantage.
The Cardinals need only nine relief outs if McGreevy reaches the seventh. Arizona may require 12 or more from its bullpen if Gallen repeats his recent pattern.
McGreevy has never faced the current Arizona roster in a major-league game.
The lack of direct history can create an early advantage as Carroll, Marte, Perdomo, Arenado, and Gurriel identify his movement and sequencing.
Arizona's left-handed and switch-hitting group creates several platoon concerns.
Carroll, Marte, Perdomo, and potentially Smith can all attack from the left side.
McGreevy must keep his sinker away from the centre of the plate. Arizona produced three extra-base hits and two home runs during Wednesday's six-run inning.
The Diamondbacks have struggled against right-handed pitching over the past month, but their top hitters remain capable of punishing mistakes.
McGreevy's home performance adds another positive factor.
He has produced an ERA close to 2.25 across seven starts at Busch Stadium while holding opponents to a batting average near .220.
The warm weather increases the risk of fly-ball damage, but Busch Stadium remains less dangerous than several other National League parks.
Game Thesis: St. Louis owns the clear starting-pitching advantage. McGreevy enters with a 3.35 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while Gallen carries a 6.10 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and an 8.88 ERA over his last five starts. Arizona has won two consecutive games and possesses enough left-handed power to challenge McGreevy, but its recent production against right-handed pitching remains weak. The Cardinals have hit right-handers well and should create regular traffic against Gallen. Both bullpens have struggled, and warm conditions support additional scoring. St. Louis is the preferred moneyline side, the Cardinals run line offers a plus-money alternative, and Over 9.0 is the strongest overall wager.
Moneyline Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (-130)
St. Louis is the preferred outright winner behind the substantial starting-pitcher advantage.
McGreevy owns a 3.35 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Gallen enters with a 6.10 ERA and 1.63 WHIP.
The difference extends beyond the surface numbers.
McGreevy has completed at least six innings in eight of his last 10 starts. Gallen has failed to record an out in the seventh inning during any appearance this season.
That workload gap should allow St. Louis to protect its best relievers while Arizona again asks its bullpen to cover an extended portion of the game.
The Cardinals also own the stronger offensive matchup.
St. Louis has produced a 121 weighted runs created plus against right-handed pitching over the past month.
Arizona ranks last in the same split.
Burleson, Walker, Wetherholt, Nootbaar, and Winn give the Cardinals several hitters capable of exploiting Gallen's reduced strikeout rate.
Gallen has allowed at least six hits in six consecutive appearances and enters after surrendering 12 to Minnesota.
Arizona's two recent victories prevent St. Louis from becoming an automatic selection.
The Diamondbacks have generated production from Carroll, Marte, Troy, Groover, Gurriel, and Moreno throughout the series.
St. Louis also owns the less reliable recent bullpen. Svanson, Graceffo, and Bruihl have all allowed damaging innings during the series.
McGreevy's ability to work six innings reduces that concern. The Cardinals should be able to move from their starter toward Romero, Soriano, and O'Brien if they hold a late lead.
A projected 6-4 St. Louis victory supports the moneyline.
Spread Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+160)
St. Louis -1.5 offers the more attractive run-line price.
Arizona +1.5 requires bettors to lay close to two dollars of juice. That price offers limited value behind a starter who has allowed 33 hits and 25 earned runs across his last four appearances.
The Cardinals can create separation early against Gallen.
A walk or single ahead of Walker, Burleson, Wetherholt, or Nootbaar can quickly become a multi-run inning.
Gallen has not generated enough strikeouts to escape those situations consistently.
St. Louis can also add insurance runs against a tired Arizona bullpen.
The Diamondbacks required six relief innings Wednesday after using Sewald, Garcia, and other important arms Tuesday.
McGreevy's workload profile gives the Cardinals a better chance to reach the late innings without exposing the weakest portion of their bullpen.
The primary risk is Arizona's top-of-the-order power.
Carroll and Marte can turn one mistake into a home run. Perdomo can extend innings through walks, while Arenado and Gurriel have already delivered against St. Louis during the series.
The Diamondbacks have also covered the run line consistently as underdogs. Arizona has won two of the first three games outright.
The +160 price compensates for those concerns.
Scores such as 6-4, 7-4, or 6-3 support the St. Louis run line.
⭐ Best Bet - Total Pick: Over 9.0 (+100)
Over 9.0 is the strongest wager in this matchup.
Gallen's recent form supplies the clearest argument.
He owns an 8.88 ERA and 2.05 WHIP over his last five starts.
Gallen has allowed at least four earned runs in four of those five outings and enters after surrendering nine earned runs in four innings.
St. Louis has the contact and power required to continue those problems.
The Cardinals have scored 359 runs and hit 88 home runs. They rank among baseball's most productive offenses against right-handed pitching during the past month.
Arizona should also contribute.
McGreevy allowed five runs and eight hits in his latest start. His low strikeout rate means the Diamondbacks should place a large number of balls in play.
Carroll and Marte receive the platoon advantage. Troy, Groover, Gurriel, Moreno, and Arenado have all produced during the series.
Both bullpens increase the scoring ceiling.
Arizona's relief group owns a FIP above 5.50 during the past week. St. Louis carries a bullpen FIP above 6.00 across the past two weeks.
The Diamondbacks have already required nine bullpen innings during the past two games.
St. Louis has also received poor recent performances from Svanson, Graceffo, Bruihl, and several middle-relief options.
The weather provides another positive factor.
Temperatures should remain around 80 to 85 degrees. Warm summer air can help the ball travel farther even with only light wind.
The nine-run number supplies push protection.
A 5-4 result returns the stake, while projected scores such as 6-4, 6-5, or 7-4 clear the total.
McGreevy's ability to produce six controlled innings creates the strongest Under argument.
The first two games of the series produced only five and seven runs, demonstrating that Busch Stadium can suppress scoring when the starting pitching performs well.
Gallen's current performance is too difficult to trust, and the bullpen conditions increase the probability that scoring continues after the starters exit.
Top Player Prop Picks
Zac Gallen Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (-118) Gallen has allowed at least six hits in six consecutive starts.
He has surrendered eight or more hits during four of his last five appearances.
The totals across his past five starts are 12, six, nine, nine, and eight.
Gallen enters with a .317 opponent batting average and 1.63 WHIP.
Those numbers show that his current problems extend beyond isolated home runs or poor defense.
Opponents are consistently reaching base through direct contact.
St. Louis owns several favourable matchups.
Burleson, Wetherholt, and Nootbaar bat from the left side. Walker and Winn have also produced strong contact numbers against right-handed pitching.
The Cardinals are batting approximately .273 across their past 13 games and have generated a 121 weighted runs created plus against right-handers during the past month.
Gallen's declining strikeout rate provides more opportunities for balls in play.
He has struck out four or fewer hitters in five consecutive starts.
The prop requires seven hits. That is a high threshold, but Gallen has exceeded it in four of his last five outings.
Warm conditions and a disciplined St. Louis lineup support another elevated hit total.
Michael McGreevy Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-105 at BetMGM) McGreevy must complete six full innings to clear this prop.
He has reached that threshold in eight of his last 10 starts.
McGreevy completed exactly six innings in three consecutive appearances before working five during his latest loss to Kansas City.
Arizona's recent numbers against right-handed pitching strengthen the matchup.
The Diamondbacks rank last in weighted runs created plus against righties over the past month.
McGreevy does not need to dominate through strikeouts.
His 1.15 WHIP and willingness to attack the strike zone allow him to create quick outs through contact.
Arizona's hitters can challenge him with several left-handed bats, but McGreevy has held opponents to a batting average near .220 at home.
St. Louis also has an incentive to extend his workload.
The bullpen has struggled throughout the past two weeks and allowed damaging innings during consecutive losses.
Manager Oliver Marmol should allow McGreevy to complete six innings if his pitch count remains manageable.
The primary risk is Arizona's top of the order.
Carroll, Marte, and Perdomo can extend plate appearances, while the lower order just produced several extra-base hits Wednesday.
Six innings remains the most likely workload based on McGreevy's season pattern and Arizona's full-season offensive profile.
JJ Wetherholt 2+ Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150 at FanDuel) Wetherholt receives a favourable matchup against a struggling right-handed starter.
The combination market counts every hit, run, and RBI.
Wetherholt can clear the number with two hits, one hit and one run, or one hit and one RBI.
He enters batting approximately .262 with a .361 on-base percentage and 34 RBIs.
Wetherholt collected two hits during Monday's opener after hitting two home runs Sunday against Kansas City.
Gallen has allowed a .317 opponent batting average and more than 10 hits per nine innings.
He has also struggled to retire hitters after reaching two strikes.
Wetherholt should bat in a premium lineup position, providing four or five plate appearances if the game remains competitive.
The hitters behind him give the rookie realistic scoring opportunities.
Walker, Burleson, Herrera if available, and Nootbaar can all drive him home after a single or walk.
Wetherholt can also clear the entire prop during one productive plate appearance if he records an extra-base hit with a runner aboard.
Arizona's bullpen adds later opportunities.
Gallen has not worked beyond six innings this season, making at least one plate appearance against a reliever highly likely.
The -150 price is preferable to laying heavier juice on a basic one-hit prop because the combination market rewards Wetherholt's complete offensive role.
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