Athletics vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Picks - September 19, 2025
Use Code WWWC Friday evening on the MLB diamond, and we have an Athletics vs Pirates Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Athletics have had a rough season at 72-81 on the year, while the Pirates have been worse at 65-88. The A's have won the last five games in this series. Can the pirates break that string? Continue reading to see our Athletics vs Pirates prediction.
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A's Close Out Series Against The Red Sox With A Win
The Athletics roll into Friday night with momentum, having won four of their last five and now sitting at 71–81. Their offense has been quietly potent, ranking 12th in MLB with 700 runs scored and 211 home runs—led by Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, and Shea Langeliers, who’ve combined for 84 homers and 220 RBIs. The team’s slugging percentage sits at .436, and they’ve hit 277 doubles on the year, showing depth beyond just power. They’ve struck out 1,311 times, but their aggressive approach has paid off against weaker rotations.
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Luis Severino gets the start, bringing veteran poise and a 3.96 career ERA into the matchup. He’s logged over 1,060 innings in the bigs with 1,065 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.215. While the Athletics’ bullpen has struggled—ranking 29th in holds and converting just 62.3% of save chances—they’ve leaned on Severino to go deep and minimize exposure. Defensively, they’ve turned 69.8% of balls in play into outs, ranking mid-pack in efficiency. If Severino commands the zone and the bats stay hot, they’ll be tough to chase down.
The Athletics are 4–3 on the road in their last seven and 3–6 in interleague play, but they’ve covered five straight on the run line. With postseason hopes gone, they’re playing loose and swinging early. Their lineup has punished right-handed pitching all season, and they’ll look to jump on Mitch Keller early before Pittsburgh’s bullpen gets involved.
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Pirates Have Lost 11 Of Their Last 12
The Pirates enter Friday night in a deep slide, having lost 11 of their last 12 games, and now sit at 65–88. Their offense has been one of the least productive in baseball, ranking bottom five in runs (524), homers (108), and team batting average (.232). Injuries and roster churn have left the lineup thin—Ke’Bryan Hayes is no longer with the club, and Jack Suwinski, Ronny Simon, and Endy Rodríguez are all sidelined. That leaves veterans like Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham to carry the load, alongside Bryan Reynolds, who leads the team in hits and RBIs. Still, the Pirates have scored just 2.9 runs per game in September and have failed to generate sustained rallies.
Mitch Keller gets the start with a 12–11 record and 4.18 ERA across 180+ innings. He’s been solid but inconsistent, and the bullpen behind him has blown 20 of 53 save chances—ranking near the bottom in conversion rate. Defensively, Pittsburgh has committed 82 errors and turned 103 double plays, with a fielding percentage of .984. Keller will need to be sharp early, as the Athletics have thrived on first-inning production and power against right-handed pitching. If Keller can keep the ball down and avoid early damage, Pittsburgh has a chance to stay competitive.
The Pirates are 3–3 at home in their last six but just 2–4 in interleague play. They’ve hit the under in four of their last five games and have leaned heavily on pitching to stay afloat. With postseason hopes long gone and the losing streak mounting, Friday night becomes more about pride and player evaluation. Unless Keller delivers a standout outing and the bats wake up, the Athletics’ power and veteran arm could be too much to overcome.
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Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
Athletics vs Pirates Moneyline Pick
- Athletics -105 (5 Units)
Backing the Athletics on Friday night makes sense, especially with Luis Severino taking the mound in a road start. Severino has been a completely different pitcher away from home, posting a 5–2 record with a 3.11 ERA on the road compared to a brutal 1–9 mark and 6.51 ERA at home. His command sharpens outside of Sutter Health Park, and he’s allowed fewer walks and homers in road environments. Against a Pirates lineup that ranks bottom five in runs, homers, and batting average—and has dropped 11 of its last 12 games—Severino’s road form gives the Athletics a clear edge in the pitching matchup.
Offensively, the Athletics bring a top-10 power profile into PNC Park, with 211 home runs and 700 runs scored on the season. They’ve covered five straight on the run line and are 4–1 in their last five overall, showing late-season fight despite being out of playoff contention. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is missing key bats and has struggled to generate rallies, scoring just 2.9 runs per game in September. With Severino’s road dominance, the A’s power advantage, and the Pirates’ extended skid, this sets up as a strong spot for the visitors to control the game and cash the ticket.
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Athletics vs Pirates Over/Under Pick
- Under 8.5 (5 Units)
Under 8.5 is well-supported in Friday’s matchup, where both teams bring limited offensive firepower and capable starting pitching. The Pirates have scored just 3.6 runs per game this season—dead last in MLB—and have hit the fewest home runs in the league with 108. Their lineup is depleted and averaging only 2.9 runs per game in September, while Mitch Keller has allowed three earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. On the other side, Luis Severino has been far more effective on the road, posting a 3.11 ERA away from home, and the Athletics have leaned on early power but tend to stall against ground-ball arms like Keller. With both bullpens logging 14+ innings over their last three games and fatigue setting in, expect a low-tempo, contact-heavy game that stays under the number.
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