Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 5, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Baltimore Orioles visit the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday at 1:05 PM ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Baltimore is 41-48 and is fourth in the AL East, while Cincinnati is 40-47 and is fifth in the NL Central. The Orioles opened this series with a 3-0 victory on Friday and have won two straight games after taking two of three from the White Sox. Cincinnati has dropped three of its last four contests and is trying to avoid falling further behind in the division race. Cash in a winning ticket with our free MLB picks.
Baltimore Orioles Looking to Keep Rolling
Baltimore has been inconsistent offensively this season, batting .238 with 406 runs, 704 hits, 103 home runs, a .318 on-base percentage, and a .396 slugging percentage. Pete Alonso leads the Orioles with 19 home runs and 59 RBI, while Taylor Ward owns a team-best .251 batting average and .379 on-base percentage. Samuel Basallo has contributed 13 home runs and 39 RBI, Adley Rutschman has driven in 43 runs, and Baltimore enters this game after recording its second shutout win in the last three contests.
Baltimore's pitching staff has been stronger than its record suggests, ranking 22nd in MLB with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Orioles pitchers have limited opponents to a .253 batting average while recording 712 strikeouts. That group has given Baltimore a chance to compete most nights despite inconsistent offensive production.
Injuries: Ryan Mountcastle (60-Day IL), Ryan Helsley (15-Day IL), Keegan Akin (15-Day IL), Yaramil Hiraldo (60-Day IL), Chris Bassitt (15-Day IL).
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Cincinnati Reds Trying to Respond
Cincinnati has struggled to generate offense consistently this season, batting .227 while scoring 364 runs with 663 hits, 106 home runs, a .309 on-base percentage, and a .388 slugging percentage. Sal Stewart leads the Reds with 17 home runs and 60 RBI, while Elly De La Cruz is batting .273 with 13 home runs and 12 stolen bases. Nathaniel Lowe has added nine home runs, JJ Bleday has hit 13 home runs, and the Reds will look for a stronger offensive performance after being held scoreless in Friday's series opener.
Cincinnati has also struggled on the mound, ranking 23rd in MLB with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Reds pitchers have allowed opponents to bat .249 while issuing 391 walks, one of the highest totals in baseball. Limiting free baserunners will be critical against a Baltimore lineup capable of taking advantage of mistakes.
Injuries: Hunter Greene (60-Day IL), Blake Dunn (10-Day IL), Ke'Bryan Hayes (10-Day IL), Dane Myers (10-Day IL), Graham Ashcraft (60-Day IL).
Pitching Matchup
Baltimore Orioles – Kyle Bradish
Bradish is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP across 93.0 innings this season. He has allowed 88 hits while striking out 96 batters and walking 47. Bradish has consistently missed bats, and if he limits the walks, he can control this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds – Nick Lodolo
Lodolo is 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 51.2 innings. He has surrendered 54 hits while striking out 42 batters and issuing 22 walks. Lodolo has struggled to limit hard contact and will need a much sharper outing against Baltimore's middle of the order.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds Game Pick
- Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore has the advantage with the more dependable starting pitcher and enters this matchup with momentum after Friday's shutout victory. Bradish owns a significantly lower ERA than Lodolo and gives the Orioles a better chance to work deep into the game. Cincinnati continues to struggle offensively, ranking near the bottom of MLB in batting average, while Baltimore's lineup has enough power to capitalize on Lodolo's inconsistency. The Orioles are the play.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds Over/Under Pick
- Under
Bradish has pitched well for most of the season with a 3.77 ERA, and Cincinnati has had difficulty producing consistent offense while batting just .227 as a team. Baltimore has not been an explosive offensive club either, ranking in the bottom third of MLB in batting average and scoring. While Lodolo has been inconsistent, the Orioles have generally relied more on timely hitting than sustained offensive outbursts. With one lineup struggling throughout the season and the other supported by the better starting pitcher, the under is the stronger play.
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