Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Sunday, May 3rd, 2026
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The Baltimore Orioles (15-18, 14-19 ATS, 22-11 O/U) and the New York Yankees (22-11, 20-13 ATS, 14-18-1 O/U) conclude a three-game AL East series on Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. The Orioles will have Shane Baz on the rubber. The Yankees will counter with Max Fried. The Yankees lead the season series 2-0.
Can Shane Baz and the Orioles come away with a surprising win on Sunday? Keep reading to find out. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our MLB Picks!
Baz Earns First Win of Season
Shane Baz will be on the mound on Sunday. Baz enjoyed a great effort earlier this week, conceding one run in 5.2 innings pitched against Houston, and secured the win. The veteran needed that, considering his weak numbers on the season. He is squandering too many hits, and it's no surprise he has a 4.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP to go with a 1-2 record in 34 innings on the season. He tossed 6.2 scoreless innings against the Yankees last year, but has a 6.75 ERA in 21.1 career innings against the foes.
The Baltimore Orioles had a disappointing 2025 season and have been mediocre so far this year. The squad is just below the .500 mark, but has enough talent to make the postseason. The Orioles won two of three meetings against the Astros this week, led by the bats, netting 20 runs. The squad is 6-9 on the road this season.
Gunnar Henderson continues to be a huge threat at the dish. The young shortstop has bashed nine home runs along with 19 RBIs and a .739 OPS. Henderson posted a strong .888 OPS against the Yankees last season and has one hit in this series. Taylor Ward has been quiet at the plate in the past few weeks but has great numbers, hitting .296 with 12 RBIs and an .850 OPS. Ward is in his first season with Baltimore.
Jeremiah Jackson has been one of the best rookies in the big leagues. The 26-year-old second baseman has accumulated 25 RBIs, which leads the team, along with a .768 OPS. Colton Cowser is slumping. The 26-year-old outfielder has only managed three RBIs. Pete Alonso signed a huge contract after leaving the Mets in the offseason. The veteran first baseman has been inconsistent, managing 16 RBIs and a .732 OPS. He homered in the defeat on Saturday.
Baltimore is averaging 4.60 runs on the year, marking them 12th. The pitching staff has a 4.40 ERA, placing them 22nd in the big leagues. 
Maz Fried Resumes Dominance in Another Win
Max Fried will be on the rubber to conclude the series. Fried resumed his dominance in his recent outing, posting six shutout innings against the Rangers and earned yet another win. The Yankees ace is having a dominant season. He has not conceded a run in five of his seven outings this season and is sporting a stingy 2.09 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP, accompanied by a 4-1 record in 47.1 innings pitched. Fried has 37 strikeouts. He has a 3.27 ERA and a 2-2 record in 33 career innings against Baltimore.
The New York Yankees have met the lofty expectations this season. They stand atop the tough AL East and have solid numbers at the dish and on the mound. The Yankees have only dropped two series this season. They earned two wins in three road clashes against the Rangers this week, scoring only seven runs, but kept them to seven runs. The Bronx Bombers are at 10-5 at home.
Ben Rice has been one of the most dangerous hitters in the big leagues. The 27-year-old first baseman has smashed 11 home runs with 26 RBIs and an elite 1.1 OPS. He was a tough out against the Orioles last year, bashing six homers with 11 RBIs. Cody Bellinger is heating up and now has five home runs and has added 19 RBIs. The veteran slugger has six RBIs in his past five games.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has seven RBIs in his last 10 games. The veteran second baseman was in a major slump to begin the season. Chisholm Jr. has netted 10 RBIs and a .620 OPS. Aaron Judge exposed the Orioles' pitching last season, clubbing six homers with 11 RBIs. The star slugger is having another outstanding season, bashing 12 big flies with 21 RBIs and a 1.00 OPS. Jose Caballero has been the Yankees' starting shortstop due to the injury to Anthony Volpe. The veteran has been decent, producing 12 RBIs and a .732 OPS.
New York is scoring an average of 5.00 runs on the season, rating them ninth. The pitching has been dominant, leading the big leagues with a strong 3.05 ERA.
Orioles vs. Yankees Pick
Spread Pick for Orioles vs. Yankees
- Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (5 units)
The Baltimore Orioles are a competitive group that cannot be taken lightly. This squad has the talent to be a postseason team. The New York Yankees have also been a threat. They are bigger favorites than usual due to having the ace, Max Fried, going in this one, but the Yankees have not been a lock with him on the mound. The Yankees are only 2-3 in his past five outings.
Furthermore, Baltimore's pitcher Shane Baz is confident after posting his best effort of the season earlier this week, keeping Houston to just one run in 5.2 innings in a 5-3 win. Baz posted 6.2 shutout innings in his only outing against New York last season.
Over/Under Pick for Orioles vs. Yankees
- Over 8.5 (5 units)
I expect this one to have crooked numbers on the board. Baltimore is clicking at the plate, scoring 26 runs in its past five games. Fried has not been sharp at Yankee Stadium this season, squandering eight runs in 12 innings, and the Yankees dropped those two games against the Marlins and Angels.
In addition, while I expect Shane Baz to contain the New York offense, he is inconsistent and has a shaky 6.75 ERA in his career against the foes. Also, New York has posted 40 runs in its past five home games. The over is a convincing 5-1 in the Orioles' past six games.
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