Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 12, 2026

The Baltimore Orioles visit the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday at Rogers Centre, with the opening pitch scheduled for 3:07 PM ET and televised on MLB.TV. Baltimore is 71-76, fifth in the AL East and 17 games behind Tampa Bay. Toronto is 73-74, fourth in the division and 15 games back. The Blue Jays are one game behind Cleveland for the final AL Wild Card position, while Baltimore is three games back. Baltimore is 3-7 over its last 10 after Wednesday’s 9-5 win over Cleveland. Toronto is 6-4 over its last 10 after a 2-0 loss to the Athletics. Check out our free MLB picks.

Baltimore Orioles Trying to Build on a Strong Offensive Win

Baltimore scored nine runs against Cleveland after producing only six across its previous two games. The Orioles are batting .234 with a .316 on-base percentage and .394 slugging percentage, totaling 176 home runs and 661 runs. Pete Alonso leads Baltimore with a .268 average, 34 home runs, 97 RBI and 147 hits. Coby Mayo has added 22 homers and 59 RBI, while Gunnar Henderson has 22 home runs, 57 RBI and 10 stolen bases.

Baltimore’s pitching staff owns a 4.15 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while opponents are batting .253. The Orioles have allowed 688 runs, producing a minus-27 run differential. Baltimore is 35-37 away from home and has surrendered at least four runs in three straight games. 

Injuries: Gunnar Henderson is day-to-day. Luis Robert Jr., Christian Franklin and Blaze Alexander are on the 10-day IL. Ryan Helsley is on the 60-day IL.

Toronto Blue Jays Searching for More Runs at Home

Toronto has dropped three of its last four, scoring 10 total runs during that stretch. The Blue Jays are batting .248 with a .309 on-base percentage and .383 slugging percentage while producing 140 home runs and 589 runs. Ernie Clement leads Toronto with a .273 average and 148 hits. Kazuma Okamoto provides the main power with 30 home runs and 83 RBI, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .260 with a .330 on-base percentage and 54 RBI.

The Blue Jays have stronger pitching numbers with a 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .236 opponent batting average. Toronto has allowed 628 runs, leaving the club with a minus-39 run differential despite its solid staff numbers. The Blue Jays are 37-35 at Rogers Centre and sit only one game behind Cleveland for the final AL Wild Card spot. Toronto has allowed three runs or fewer in three of its last five games.

Injuries: George Springer is day-to-day. Luis Urias is on the 10-day IL. Anthony Santander is on the 60-day IL. Trey Yesavage and Jameson Taillon are on the 15-day IL.

Pitching Matchup

Baltimore Orioles - Kyle Bradish

Kyle Bradish is 7-13 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 152 innings. The right-hander has allowed 148 hits, 68 walks and 18 home runs while striking out 140. Bradish has kept his home-run total manageable, but the 68 walks have increased his baserunner count. His 140 strikeouts remain a solid part of his profile.

Toronto Blue Jays - Spencer Arrighetti

Spencer Arrighetti is 7-9 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 103.2 innings. The right-hander has recorded 100 strikeouts while allowing 84 hits, 58 walks and 17 home runs. Arrighetti has limited hits well, but his walk total has pushed his WHIP higher and created additional pressure during his starts.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Pick

• Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore is the pick with Bradish holding the stronger starting pitching numbers and the Orioles owning more power throughout the lineup. Bradish has a 3.91 ERA compared with Arrighetti’s 5.12, while Baltimore has hit 176 home runs against Toronto’s 140. Alonso has been the biggest threat with 34 homers and 97 RBI, and Mayo adds another power option. Toronto has the better recent record, but its lineup has struggled for runs lately. Baltimore’s pitching matchup and stronger power numbers support the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Over/Under Pick

• Under

Under is the pick because Toronto’s pitching staff has limited opponents well despite the team’s recent losses. The Blue Jays own a 3.91 ERA and have allowed three runs or fewer in three of their last five games. Baltimore’s Bradish also has a 3.91 ERA across 152 innings, providing another capable starter. Toronto has scored only 10 runs over its last four games, while Baltimore was held to one run or fewer twice in its last five. Those scoring stretches point to a lower total Saturday.