Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 13, 2026

The Baltimore Orioles visit the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday at Rogers Centre, with the opening pitch scheduled for 1:37 PM ET and televised on MLB.TV. Baltimore is 72-76, fifth in the AL East and 16.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The Orioles are three games behind Cleveland for the third and final AL Wild Card position, with 14 games remaining. Toronto is 73-75, fourth in the AL East and 15.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays are one game behind Cleveland for the final Wild Card position, with 14 games remaining. Baltimore has won two straight, including Friday’s 7-4 victory at Toronto, while the Blue Jays have lost two straight. Cash in a winner with our free MLB picks.

Baltimore Orioles Building on Consecutive Wins

Baltimore has won three of its last four games, scoring at least six runs in each victory. The Orioles are batting .235 with a .316 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage, with 668 runs and 178 home runs. Pete Alonso leads Baltimore with a .266 average, 34 home runs and 97 RBI. Gunnar Henderson has 22 homers, 57 RBI and 10 stolen bases, while Coby Mayo has added 23 home runs and 60 RBI. Samuel Basallo has 17 homers in 104 games.

Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA and 1.34 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .253. The Orioles have recorded 57 quality starts, although only two shutouts. Baltimore ranks 23rd in fielding percentage at .983 and has committed 89 errors across 147 games. Those defensive numbers add pressure to a pitching staff that has allowed 1,272 hits. 

Injuries: Luis Robert Jr., Christian Franklin and Blaze Alexander are on the 10-day IL. Ryan Helsley and Ryan Mountcastle are on the 60-day IL.

Toronto Blue Jays Trying to Reverse a Rough Stretch

Toronto has lost four of its last five games, with Friday’s 7-4 defeat following a 2-0 loss at the Athletics. The Blue Jays are batting .248 with a .309 on-base percentage and .383 slugging percentage, totaling 593 runs and 142 home runs. Ernie Clement leads Toronto with a .273 average and 149 hits. Kazuma Okamoto provides the main power threat with 31 home runs and 84 RBI, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .259 with a .330 on-base percentage. Andres Gimenez has added 20 stolen bases.

The Blue Jays have stronger season pitching numbers than Baltimore, recording a 3.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and .236 opponent batting average. Toronto has 50 saves, 45 quality starts and 11 shutouts. The defense has been less reliable, ranking 20th with a .984 fielding percentage and 86 errors. Toronto is 37-36 at Rogers Centre.

Injuries: Trey Yesavage and Jameson Taillon are on the 15-day IL. Luis Urias is on the 10-day IL. Anthony Santander and Jonatan Clase are on the 60-day IL.

Pitching Matchup

Baltimore Orioles - Trevor Rogers

Trevor Rogers is 10-9 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 151.2 innings. The left-hander has allowed 147 hits, 37 walks and 16 home runs while striking out 138. Rogers has kept his walk total relatively low for his workload, but the 147 hits have created baserunners throughout the season. 

Toronto Blue Jays - Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease is 10-5 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through 161.1 innings. Cease has allowed only 101 hits and 11 home runs while recording 227 strikeouts and 67 walks. His strikeout total stands out, and his 2.40 ERA is among the strongest marks in this matchup. Cease has also handled a heavier workload than Rogers while keeping his WHIP close to one.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Pick

• Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto is the pick behind the substantial starting pitching edge Cease presents. Cease owns a 2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 227 strikeouts, while Rogers has a 4.15 ERA and has allowed 147 hits. The Blue Jays also have the better overall staff numbers with a 3.93 ERA and .236 opponent batting average. Baltimore has played better recently, but Toronto is only one game outside the final Wild Card spot and has Cease positioned to keep the Orioles lineup in check Sunday.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays Over/Under Pick

• Under

Under is the pick because Cease has allowed only 101 hits and 11 home runs across 161.1 innings, and Toronto’s offense has scored just six runs in its last three games. The Blue Jays have only 142 home runs this season, while Baltimore ranks near the bottom of MLB with a .235 batting average. Rogers has a manageable 1.21 WHIP and only 37 walks in 151.2 innings. With Cease capable of working deep and limiting Baltimore’s power, the total will cash under.