2026 MLB Team Betting Trends: Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Rankings

By: Al MacMillan Updated 08/20/2026, 02:17 PM ET
Fact Checked by Devin Erickson-Sheehy

The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most profitable club to back on the run line, while the Philadelphia Phillies and Athletics have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to guide your MLB predictions and wagers.

Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through August 19, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.

The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 69-54, with Milwaukee and Atlanta close behind. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.

Rank Team ATS Record Units ROI
1 Tampa Bay Rays 69-54 +23.80u +15.9%
2 Milwaukee Brewers 66-60 +15.05u +10.4%
3 Atlanta Braves 65-60 +13.45u +9.4%
4 Washington Nationals 73-52 +10.20u +5.9%
5 San Diego Padres 69-56 +8.00u +4.7%
6 Chicago White Sox 72-50 +8.15u +4.6%
7 Boston Red Sox 62-60 +3.75u +2.4%
8 Baltimore Orioles 66-59 +3.45u +2.1%
9 Chicago Cubs 61-64 +0.55u +0.4%
10 St. Louis Cardinals 69-55 -0.45u -0.2%
11 Arizona Diamondbacks 67-56 -0.45u -0.3%
12 New York Yankees 59-65 -0.40u -0.3%
13 Minnesota Twins 69-57 -1.85u -1.0%
14 Colorado Rockies 67-59 -3.15u -2.0%
15 Miami Marlins 65-60 -3.45u -2.0%
16 Toronto Blue Jays 64-62 -3.75u -2.3%
17 Houston Astros 63-63 -4.45u -2.7%
18 Detroit Tigers 58-63 -6.60u -4.2%
19 Pittsburgh Pirates 61-64 -9.00u -5.5%
20 Cincinnati Reds 65-59 -10.00u -5.7%
21 Cleveland Guardians 59-66 -11.70u -7.2%
22 New York Mets 56-69 -14.35u -9.1%
23 San Francisco Giants 59-64 -20.15u -11.7%
24 Texas Rangers 55-68 -19.40u -12.0%
25 Los Angeles Angels 61-64 -22.10u -12.8%
26 Kansas City Royals 58-64 -22.10u -12.8%
27 Athletics 59-67 -22.00u -13.0%
28 Los Angeles Dodgers 53-73 -24.80u -16.7%
29 Seattle Mariners 47-78 -26.45u -18.5%
30 Philadelphia Phillies 50-76 -32.25u -21.6%

Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. The Tampa Bay Rays top the board at 75-50, a rare case of an elite team that still pays its backers, with the Chicago White Sox second and Milwaukee third. The Athletics have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.

Rank Team Record Units ROI
1 Tampa Bay Rays 75-50 +15.60u +9.7%
2 Chicago White Sox 65-60 +12.05u +9.0%
3 Milwaukee Brewers 78-48 +12.10u +6.5%
4 St. Louis Cardinals 65-62 +8.80u +6.4%
5 Arizona Diamondbacks 66-61 +6.60u +4.5%
6 Atlanta Braves 74-52 +6.80u +3.9%
7 Chicago Cubs 74-53 +6.35u +3.7%
8 San Diego Padres 68-59 +5.45u +3.6%
9 Washington Nationals 60-67 +3.55u +2.6%
10 Miami Marlins 64-63 +1.60u +1.1%
11 Minnesota Twins 62-65 -1.25u -0.9%
12 Colorado Rockies 50-76 -2.70u -2.1%
13 Boston Red Sox 68-58 -3.85u -2.4%
14 Philadelphia Phillies 69-58 -6.55u -3.4%
15 Cincinnati Reds 60-66 -5.65u -4.0%
16 New York Yankees 70-55 -8.65u -4.7%
17 Houston Astros 63-63 -7.15u -4.8%
18 Baltimore Orioles 61-65 -8.50u -5.8%
19 Cleveland Guardians 61-65 -9.60u -6.3%
20 Texas Rangers 62-64 -9.70u -6.5%
21 Toronto Blue Jays 62-65 -10.55u -6.7%
22 Los Angeles Dodgers 76-51 -19.15u -7.9%
23 Pittsburgh Pirates 62-66 -14.10u -8.9%
24 Detroit Tigers 61-65 -15.65u -9.9%
25 Los Angeles Angels 50-76 -18.25u -13.6%
26 Seattle Mariners 59-67 -24.15u -14.4%
27 Kansas City Royals 53-74 -21.10u -14.9%
28 San Francisco Giants 51-74 -21.25u -15.2%
29 New York Mets 57-70 -27.50u -17.5%
30 Athletics 49-77 -27.00u -19.3%

Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. The Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh have been the league's premier Over teams, while the Los Angeles Angels and St. Louis anchor the Under side.

Best Over Teams

Rank Team Over Record (O-U) ROI
1 Chicago White Sox 71-52 +10.3%
2 Pittsburgh Pirates 71-53 +9.2%
3 Washington Nationals 67-54 +5.9%
4 Minnesota Twins 66-53 +5.0%
5 Houston Astros 66-53 +4.9%
6 Chicago Cubs 68-57 +4.3%
7 Texas Rangers 63-57 +0.5%
8 Baltimore Orioles 64-58 +0.2%
9 Cincinnati Reds 65-59 +0.0%
10 Seattle Mariners 62-57 -0.4%
11 Athletics 62-60 -2.6%
12 Toronto Blue Jays 63-61 -2.9%
13 Miami Marlins 63-61 -3.1%
14 Colorado Rockies 62-61 -4.2%
15 San Francisco Giants 57-57 -4.2%
16 Cleveland Guardians 61-65 -7.3%
17 Atlanta Braves 58-62 -7.3%
18 New York Mets 56-61 -8.5%
19 Tampa Bay Rays 57-63 -8.6%
20 Philadelphia Phillies 57-63 -8.7%
21 Los Angeles Dodgers 60-66 -9.3%
22 Boston Red Sox 58-64 -9.4%
23 Detroit Tigers 56-64 -10.2%
24 Kansas City Royals 58-66 -10.3%
25 San Diego Padres 56-68 -13.4%
26 Arizona Diamondbacks 54-67 -14.1%
27 Milwaukee Brewers 54-69 -15.6%
28 New York Yankees 52-69 -17.7%
29 St. Louis Cardinals 51-70 -18.8%
30 Los Angeles Angels 52-72 -19.3%

Best Under Teams

Rank Team Under Record (O-U) ROI
1 Los Angeles Angels 52-72 +11.2%
2 St. Louis Cardinals 51-70 +9.9%
3 New York Yankees 52-69 +8.8%
4 Milwaukee Brewers 54-69 +7.1%
5 Arizona Diamondbacks 54-67 +5.9%
6 San Diego Padres 56-68 +4.8%
7 Detroit Tigers 56-64 +2.1%
8 Kansas City Royals 58-66 +2.0%
9 Philadelphia Phillies 57-63 +0.5%
10 Los Angeles Dodgers 60-66 +0.2%
11 Boston Red Sox 58-64 +0.1%
12 Tampa Bay Rays 57-63 -0.0%
13 Atlanta Braves 58-62 -0.6%
14 New York Mets 56-61 -0.6%
15 Cleveland Guardians 61-65 -2.0%
16 San Francisco Giants 57-57 -4.0%
17 Colorado Rockies 62-61 -4.6%
18 Toronto Blue Jays 63-61 -5.6%
19 Athletics 62-60 -5.7%
20 Miami Marlins 63-61 -5.8%
21 Seattle Mariners 62-57 -7.9%
22 Texas Rangers 63-57 -8.2%
23 Baltimore Orioles 64-58 -8.5%
24 Cincinnati Reds 65-59 -8.7%
25 Chicago Cubs 68-57 -12.4%
26 Washington Nationals 67-54 -13.9%
27 Minnesota Twins 66-53 -14.2%
28 Houston Astros 66-53 -14.2%
29 Pittsburgh Pirates 71-53 -17.6%
30 Chicago White Sox 71-52 -19.2%

Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs have cleared their team numbers more than any other lineups, while the Mets and Angels have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.

Best Team-Total Over Teams

Rank Team Over Record (O-U) ROI
1 Minnesota Twins 71-56 +5.2%
2 Chicago Cubs 71-56 +4.4%
3 Washington Nationals 70-57 +3.8%
4 Chicago White Sox 69-56 +3.6%
5 Milwaukee Brewers 68-58 +2.6%
6 Arizona Diamondbacks 69-58 +2.2%
7 Atlanta Braves 68-58 +1.4%
8 Colorado Rockies 68-58 +0.1%
9 Tampa Bay Rays 67-58 +0.1%
10 Baltimore Orioles 67-59 +0.0%
11 Pittsburgh Pirates 68-60 -0.1%
12 Detroit Tigers 66-60 -1.2%
13 Boston Red Sox 65-61 -2.7%
14 St. Louis Cardinals 64-63 -4.5%
15 Cleveland Guardians 64-62 -5.6%
16 Houston Astros 62-64 -5.9%
17 San Diego Padres 62-65 -7.8%
18 Philadelphia Phillies 61-66 -9.1%
19 Miami Marlins 60-67 -10.0%
20 Texas Rangers 60-66 -11.4%
21 Toronto Blue Jays 56-71 -16.8%
22 Kansas City Royals 55-72 -18.7%
23 Athletics 55-71 -19.0%
24 New York Yankees 53-72 -19.2%
25 San Francisco Giants 54-71 -19.2%
26 Cincinnati Reds 54-72 -20.4%
27 Seattle Mariners 53-73 -21.2%
28 Los Angeles Dodgers 52-75 -23.0%
29 Los Angeles Angels 51-75 -23.9%
30 New York Mets 51-76 -26.8%

Best Team-Total Under Teams

Rank Team Under Record (O-U) ROI
1 New York Mets 51-76 +14.5%
2 Los Angeles Angels 51-75 +12.0%
3 Los Angeles Dodgers 52-75 +11.1%
4 Seattle Mariners 53-73 +10.4%
5 Cincinnati Reds 54-72 +8.3%
6 San Francisco Giants 54-71 +8.0%
7 Kansas City Royals 55-72 +6.9%
8 New York Yankees 53-72 +6.9%
9 Toronto Blue Jays 56-71 +5.8%
10 Athletics 55-71 +4.6%
11 Miami Marlins 60-67 +0.1%
12 Texas Rangers 60-66 -0.9%
13 Philadelphia Phillies 61-66 -2.2%
14 San Diego Padres 62-65 -4.7%
15 Houston Astros 62-64 -5.8%
16 St. Louis Cardinals 64-63 -7.0%
17 Cleveland Guardians 64-62 -7.4%
18 Boston Red Sox 65-61 -9.1%
19 Detroit Tigers 66-60 -10.7%
20 Baltimore Orioles 67-59 -12.3%
21 Colorado Rockies 68-58 -12.7%
22 Tampa Bay Rays 67-58 -13.0%
23 Pittsburgh Pirates 68-60 -13.1%
24 Milwaukee Brewers 68-58 -13.5%
25 Atlanta Braves 68-58 -13.5%
26 Arizona Diamondbacks 69-58 -13.5%
27 Chicago White Sox 69-56 -15.2%
28 Washington Nationals 70-57 -15.8%
29 Minnesota Twins 71-56 -16.8%
30 Chicago Cubs 71-56 -18.1%

First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 79-48, with St. Louis and Tampa Bay close behind.

Rank Team ATS Record Units ROI
1 Washington Nationals 79-48 +25.15u +16.8%
2 St. Louis Cardinals 75-52 +12.60u +8.1%
3 Tampa Bay Rays 71-54 +10.25u +6.9%
4 Atlanta Braves 70-56 +9.30u +6.3%
5 Detroit Tigers 69-56 +6.70u +4.4%
6 Los Angeles Angels 70-56 +5.15u +3.4%
7 Pittsburgh Pirates 69-59 +1.10u +0.7%
8 Milwaukee Brewers 65-60 -0.10u -0.1%
9 Chicago White Sox 67-58 -0.15u -0.1%
10 Cleveland Guardians 64-62 -3.90u -2.7%
11 San Diego Padres 67-60 -4.30u -2.8%
12 Cincinnati Reds 66-60 -4.90u -3.2%
13 Minnesota Twins 65-62 -6.15u -4.0%
14 Miami Marlins 65-62 -8.05u -5.3%
15 Colorado Rockies 61-64 -9.95u -6.9%
16 Arizona Diamondbacks 61-65 -13.65u -9.1%
17 San Francisco Giants 62-63 -14.15u -9.2%
18 Boston Red Sox 60-66 -13.85u -9.4%
19 Baltimore Orioles 60-66 -14.45u -9.8%
20 Philadelphia Phillies 60-67 -15.45u -10.4%
21 Los Angeles Dodgers 61-66 -16.30u -10.7%
22 Kansas City Royals 60-67 -18.10u -11.8%
23 Athletics 58-68 -19.10u -13.0%
24 New York Yankees 57-68 -20.35u -13.9%
25 Chicago Cubs 57-70 -22.75u -15.2%
26 Toronto Blue Jays 57-70 -25.10u -16.6%
27 Texas Rangers 55-71 -25.90u -17.4%
28 New York Mets 55-72 -27.35u -18.1%
29 Houston Astros 54-72 -28.45u -18.9%
30 Seattle Mariners 53-73 -28.75u -19.8%

The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. Minnesota, Texas, and Houston lead the Over side, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong Under numbers.

Best First-5 Over Teams

Rank Team Over Record (O-U) ROI
1 Minnesota Twins 71-50 +9.1%
2 Texas Rangers 70-52 +7.3%
3 Houston Astros 68-50 +7.0%
4 Chicago Cubs 71-54 +6.5%
5 Washington Nationals 69-52 +6.3%
6 Los Angeles Angels 67-55 +2.9%
7 Chicago White Sox 66-54 +2.6%
8 Atlanta Braves 65-56 +0.3%
9 Colorado Rockies 64-56 -0.4%
10 Pittsburgh Pirates 66-59 -1.1%
11 Milwaukee Brewers 63-57 -1.9%
12 Detroit Tigers 63-58 -2.1%
13 Arizona Diamondbacks 62-58 -3.5%
14 New York Mets 65-61 -3.6%
15 Philadelphia Phillies 63-60 -3.9%
16 Boston Red Sox 61-59 -4.7%
17 Baltimore Orioles 59-58 -5.6%
18 Miami Marlins 61-62 -6.8%
19 Athletics 59-62 -7.4%
20 San Francisco Giants 59-61 -8.0%
21 Los Angeles Dodgers 60-65 -10.2%
22 Tampa Bay Rays 57-64 -11.2%
23 Cincinnati Reds 57-65 -12.0%
24 Kansas City Royals 58-67 -12.2%
25 Cleveland Guardians 52-64 -15.1%
26 Seattle Mariners 53-65 -15.5%
27 New York Yankees 53-69 -18.5%
28 St. Louis Cardinals 50-70 -21.4%
29 San Diego Padres 51-71 -21.7%
30 Toronto Blue Jays 47-76 -28.2%

Best First-5 Under Teams

Rank Team Under Record (O-U) ROI
1 Toronto Blue Jays 47-76 +15.8%
2 San Diego Padres 51-71 +8.9%
3 St. Louis Cardinals 50-70 +8.8%
4 New York Yankees 53-69 +5.2%
5 Seattle Mariners 53-65 +3.9%
6 Cleveland Guardians 52-64 +3.5%
7 Kansas City Royals 58-67 +1.1%
8 Cincinnati Reds 57-65 -0.2%
9 Tampa Bay Rays 57-64 -1.0%
10 Los Angeles Dodgers 60-65 -1.9%
11 San Francisco Giants 59-61 -3.5%
12 Athletics 59-62 -3.7%
13 Miami Marlins 61-62 -5.7%
14 Baltimore Orioles 59-58 -5.9%
15 Boston Red Sox 61-59 -8.1%
16 Arizona Diamondbacks 62-58 -8.2%
17 Philadelphia Phillies 63-60 -9.1%
18 New York Mets 65-61 -9.4%
19 Milwaukee Brewers 63-57 -10.0%
20 Detroit Tigers 63-58 -10.5%
21 Colorado Rockies 64-56 -11.3%
22 Pittsburgh Pirates 66-59 -11.8%
23 Atlanta Braves 65-56 -12.6%
24 Chicago White Sox 66-54 -14.2%
25 Los Angeles Angels 67-55 -14.2%
26 Houston Astros 68-50 -18.4%
27 Washington Nationals 69-52 -18.5%
28 Chicago Cubs 71-54 -19.6%
29 Texas Rangers 70-52 -19.8%
30 Minnesota Twins 71-50 -21.2%

Methodology

Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. A win is a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under, depending on the market. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits apply the same method to that subset of games. Flat staking keeps all 30 teams on equal footing so a handful of heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings.

For more MLB predictions and daily wagers, visit MLB Predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?

The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 69-54, returning 15.9 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Milwaukee Brewers are second at 66-60 (plus 10.4 percent), with Atlanta third, making all three reliable cover teams this season.

Which teams should bettors fade right now?

The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 50-76 (minus 21.6 percent), and the Athletics have been the biggest moneyline drain at 49-77 (minus 19.3 percent). The Athletics are negative across the run line and moneyline, so there is no split that rescues them.

What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.

Which teams are the strongest Over plays?

The Chicago White Sox top the full-game Over board at 71-52 (plus 10.3 percent), with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals close behind. Minnesota and the Chicago Cubs lead the team-total Overs, so those lineups have cleared the number from a different angle.

Which teams are the best Under plays?

The Los Angeles Angels lead full-game Unders at 52-72 (plus 11.2 percent), with St. Louis and the New York Yankees close behind. On team totals, the New York Mets are the strongest Under side at plus 14.5 percent, followed by the Los Angeles Angels.

Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 79-48, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.

These tables reflect the 2026 season through August 19 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in wagers.

How is ROI calculated?

Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.

Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily wagers come down to the specific game in front of us.

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