2026 MLB Team Betting Trends: Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Rankings

By: Al MacMillan Updated 07/31/2026, 06:22 AM ET
Fact Checked by Devin Erickson-Sheehy

The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most profitable club to back on the run line, while the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to guide your MLB predictions and wagers.

Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through July 30, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.

The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 61-45, with Washington second and Milwaukee third. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.

Rank Team ATS Record Units ROI
1 Tampa Bay Rays 61-45 +24.50u +18.9%
2 Washington Nationals 65-42 +15.80u +10.8%
3 Milwaukee Brewers 57-51 +13.40u +10.7%
4 Atlanta Braves 54-53 +5.95u +4.8%
5 Chicago White Sox 60-44 +3.90u +2.6%
6 San Diego Padres 58-48 +3.70u +2.6%
7 Boston Red Sox 52-51 +2.15u +1.6%
8 Baltimore Orioles 56-52 +1.50u +1.1%
9 New York Yankees 52-55 +1.20u +1.0%
10 Pittsburgh Pirates 54-52 +0.40u +0.3%
11 Arizona Diamondbacks 57-48 +0.35u +0.2%
12 St. Louis Cardinals 59-46 -0.25u -0.2%
13 Cincinnati Reds 58-48 -3.30u -2.2%
14 Minnesota Twins 58-51 -5.30u -3.5%
15 Miami Marlins 55-53 -5.30u -3.7%
16 Houston Astros 55-55 -6.35u -4.3%
17 Colorado Rockies 57-52 -6.05u -4.5%
18 Cleveland Guardians 53-56 -6.70u -4.7%
19 Chicago Cubs 49-58 -6.15u -4.9%
20 New York Mets 49-58 -8.60u -6.5%
21 Detroit Tigers 48-56 -10.40u -7.5%
22 Toronto Blue Jays 51-57 -11.65u -8.2%
23 Texas Rangers 49-56 -13.50u -9.5%
24 Los Angeles Dodgers 49-59 -13.40u -10.6%
25 Los Angeles Angels 53-55 -17.00u -11.4%
26 Seattle Mariners 43-66 -14.60u -12.3%
27 San Francisco Giants 50-56 -18.45u -12.4%
28 Kansas City Royals 50-55 -20.05u -13.2%
29 Athletics 50-58 -21.00u -14.3%
30 Philadelphia Phillies 41-67 -33.05u -25.6%

Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. The Chicago White Sox top the board at 56-51 because so many of those wins came at plus money, with Tampa Bay second and Washington third. The Mets have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.

Rank Team Record Units ROI
1 Chicago White Sox 56-51 +11.90u +10.4%
2 Tampa Bay Rays 63-44 +12.20u +9.2%
3 Washington Nationals 55-54 +10.35u +8.8%
4 Milwaukee Brewers 67-41 +10.50u +6.7%
5 Arizona Diamondbacks 57-52 +5.90u +4.6%
6 Atlanta Braves 63-45 +5.70u +3.9%
7 St. Louis Cardinals 54-54 +3.25u +2.8%
8 Miami Marlins 55-54 +1.95u +1.5%
9 Chicago Cubs 61-47 +2.10u +1.5%
10 Minnesota Twins 54-55 +0.05u +0.0%
11 San Diego Padres 55-53 -0.45u -0.3%
12 Cleveland Guardians 56-54 -0.70u -0.5%
13 Texas Rangers 55-53 -2.90u -2.3%
14 Houston Astros 55-55 -3.20u -2.5%
15 Colorado Rockies 42-67 -3.40u -3.1%
16 New York Yankees 61-47 -5.95u -3.7%
17 Boston Red Sox 56-51 -5.90u -4.4%
18 Los Angeles Dodgers 68-40 -10.30u -4.9%
19 Philadelphia Phillies 57-52 -8.40u -5.3%
20 Cincinnati Reds 50-57 -6.65u -5.6%
21 Baltimore Orioles 53-56 -7.40u -5.8%
22 Pittsburgh Pirates 55-54 -7.85u -5.8%
23 Seattle Mariners 53-56 -17.90u -12.1%
24 Detroit Tigers 51-58 -16.90u -12.3%
25 San Francisco Giants 46-62 -15.00u -12.4%
26 Kansas City Royals 46-63 -17.25u -14.3%
27 Toronto Blue Jays 50-59 -20.15u -14.8%
28 Athletics 45-63 -19.40u -15.9%
29 Los Angeles Angels 42-67 -20.10u -17.2%
30 New York Mets 46-63 -31.85u -23.3%

Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. Pittsburgh and the Chicago White Sox have been the league's premier Over teams, while St. Louis and Philadelphia anchor the Under side.

Best Over Teams

Rank Team Over Record (O-U) ROI
1 Pittsburgh Pirates 62-44 +11.4%
2 Chicago White Sox 61-44 +10.9%
3 Washington Nationals 60-44 +10.2%
4 Minnesota Twins 58-45 +6.7%
5 Texas Rangers 57-45 +6.2%
6 Chicago Cubs 58-49 +3.9%
7 Houston Astros 57-47 +3.6%
8 Cincinnati Reds 57-49 +2.6%
9 Baltimore Orioles 57-49 +2.4%
10 Miami Marlins 56-50 +0.5%
11 Seattle Mariners 54-49 +0.2%
12 Toronto Blue Jays 54-52 -2.3%
13 San Francisco Giants 50-48 -2.5%
14 Atlanta Braves 52-50 -2.6%
15 Athletics 51-54 -6.9%
16 New York Mets 48-52 -8.3%
17 Colorado Rockies 51-55 -8.4%
18 Kansas City Royals 50-57 -10.2%
19 Los Angeles Angels 50-57 -10.3%
20 Los Angeles Dodgers 50-57 -10.9%
21 Cleveland Guardians 51-59 -11.1%
22 Tampa Bay Rays 47-55 -11.2%
23 San Diego Padres 49-57 -11.4%
24 Milwaukee Brewers 49-57 -11.5%
25 New York Yankees 47-57 -13.6%
26 Arizona Diamondbacks 46-57 -13.7%
27 Detroit Tigers 46-58 -14.7%
28 Boston Red Sox 46-57 -14.7%
29 Philadelphia Phillies 46-59 -15.6%
30 St. Louis Cardinals 44-59 -17.8%

Best Under Teams

Rank Team Under Record (O-U) ROI
1 St. Louis Cardinals 44-59 +8.8%
2 Philadelphia Phillies 46-59 +7.4%
3 Detroit Tigers 46-58 +6.4%
4 Arizona Diamondbacks 46-57 +5.8%
5 Boston Red Sox 46-57 +5.5%
6 New York Yankees 47-57 +4.7%
7 San Diego Padres 49-57 +3.0%
8 Milwaukee Brewers 49-57 +2.9%
9 Tampa Bay Rays 47-55 +2.4%
10 Los Angeles Angels 50-57 +2.3%
11 Kansas City Royals 50-57 +2.1%
12 Los Angeles Dodgers 50-57 +1.9%
13 Cleveland Guardians 51-59 +1.8%
14 Colorado Rockies 51-55 -0.5%
15 New York Mets 48-52 -0.9%
16 Athletics 51-54 -1.4%
17 Atlanta Braves 52-50 -5.3%
18 San Francisco Giants 50-48 -5.7%
19 Toronto Blue Jays 54-52 -5.8%
20 Seattle Mariners 54-49 -8.5%
21 Miami Marlins 56-50 -9.5%
22 Baltimore Orioles 57-49 -11.1%
23 Cincinnati Reds 57-49 -11.2%
24 Chicago Cubs 58-49 -12.0%
25 Houston Astros 57-47 -12.8%
26 Texas Rangers 57-45 -14.1%
27 Minnesota Twins 58-45 -15.8%
28 Washington Nationals 60-44 -18.1%
29 Chicago White Sox 61-44 -19.9%
30 Pittsburgh Pirates 62-44 -20.0%

Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. Minnesota and Atlanta have cleared their team numbers more than any other lineups, while the Mets and Giants have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.

Best Team-Total Over Teams

Rank Team Over Record (O-U) ROI
1 Minnesota Twins 63-46 +8.1%
2 Atlanta Braves 62-46 +7.7%
3 Chicago Cubs 61-47 +6.2%
4 Washington Nationals 61-48 +5.1%
5 Pittsburgh Pirates 61-48 +4.9%
6 Milwaukee Brewers 59-49 +3.7%
7 Arizona Diamondbacks 60-49 +3.5%
8 Chicago White Sox 58-49 +1.9%
9 Tampa Bay Rays 58-49 +0.9%
10 Baltimore Orioles 57-52 -1.8%
11 Colorado Rockies 57-52 -3.0%
12 St. Louis Cardinals 55-53 -3.7%
13 Detroit Tigers 55-54 -4.5%
14 Houston Astros 54-56 -5.5%
15 Texas Rangers 54-54 -6.5%
16 Boston Red Sox 53-54 -6.8%
17 Cleveland Guardians 54-56 -8.4%
18 San Diego Padres 51-57 -10.7%
19 Miami Marlins 51-58 -10.8%
20 Philadelphia Phillies 50-59 -13.5%
21 New York Yankees 49-59 -13.7%
22 Cincinnati Reds 47-60 -18.4%
23 Toronto Blue Jays 47-62 -19.3%
24 Seattle Mariners 47-62 -19.5%
25 Kansas City Royals 47-62 -19.5%
26 Athletics 46-62 -21.0%
27 Los Angeles Dodgers 45-63 -21.9%
28 Los Angeles Angels 45-64 -22.2%
29 San Francisco Giants 45-63 -22.2%
30 New York Mets 43-66 -28.2%

Best Team-Total Under Teams

Rank Team Under Record (O-U) ROI
1 New York Mets 43-66 +15.5%
2 San Francisco Giants 45-63 +11.4%
3 Los Angeles Angels 45-64 +10.1%
4 Los Angeles Dodgers 45-63 +9.7%
5 Toronto Blue Jays 47-62 +8.5%
6 Seattle Mariners 47-62 +8.0%
7 Kansas City Royals 47-62 +7.0%
8 Athletics 46-62 +6.7%
9 Cincinnati Reds 47-60 +6.6%
10 Philadelphia Phillies 50-59 +1.8%
11 New York Yankees 49-59 +1.7%
12 Miami Marlins 51-58 +1.6%
13 San Diego Padres 51-57 -1.3%
14 Cleveland Guardians 54-56 -3.8%
15 Texas Rangers 54-54 -5.2%
16 Boston Red Sox 53-54 -5.3%
17 Houston Astros 54-56 -5.5%
18 Detroit Tigers 55-54 -7.0%
19 St. Louis Cardinals 55-53 -7.8%
20 Baltimore Orioles 57-52 -9.8%
21 Colorado Rockies 57-52 -10.1%
22 Chicago White Sox 58-49 -13.4%
23 Tampa Bay Rays 58-49 -14.3%
24 Milwaukee Brewers 59-49 -14.8%
25 Arizona Diamondbacks 60-49 -15.1%
26 Washington Nationals 61-48 -17.5%
27 Pittsburgh Pirates 61-48 -18.5%
28 Chicago Cubs 61-47 -19.4%
29 Atlanta Braves 62-46 -19.6%
30 Minnesota Twins 63-46 -20.1%

First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 71-38, with Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh close behind.

Rank Team ATS Record Units ROI
1 Washington Nationals 71-38 +28.15u +21.8%
2 Tampa Bay Rays 63-44 +13.25u +10.4%
3 Pittsburgh Pirates 62-47 +8.80u +6.9%
4 Los Angeles Angels 61-48 +6.10u +4.7%
5 Atlanta Braves 59-49 +5.55u +4.4%
6 St. Louis Cardinals 61-47 +4.15u +3.1%
7 Detroit Tigers 59-49 +3.85u +3.0%
8 Cincinnati Reds 58-49 +0.70u +0.5%
9 Chicago White Sox 57-50 -0.95u -0.7%
10 Cleveland Guardians 57-53 -1.35u -1.1%
11 Minnesota Twins 57-52 -2.60u -2.0%
12 Milwaukee Brewers 54-53 -4.00u -3.1%
13 San Diego Padres 56-52 -5.55u -4.3%
14 Colorado Rockies 54-54 -6.20u -4.9%
15 Los Angeles Dodgers 55-53 -7.00u -5.4%
16 Miami Marlins 55-54 -8.15u -6.3%
17 Arizona Diamondbacks 51-57 -14.45u -11.2%
18 San Francisco Giants 52-56 -16.05u -12.1%
19 Boston Red Sox 49-58 -15.90u -12.7%
20 New York Yankees 50-58 -16.25u -12.9%
21 Kansas City Royals 51-58 -17.15u -12.9%
22 Baltimore Orioles 50-59 -16.50u -12.9%
23 Athletics 50-58 -16.50u -13.1%
24 Chicago Cubs 49-59 -17.30u -13.7%
25 Philadelphia Phillies 49-60 -18.00u -14.1%
26 Texas Rangers 49-59 -18.10u -14.2%
27 New York Mets 47-62 -23.00u -17.9%
28 Houston Astros 47-63 -25.95u -19.5%
29 Toronto Blue Jays 47-62 -25.90u -19.9%
30 Seattle Mariners 45-64 -26.35u -21.1%

The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. Texas, the Angels, and Houston lead the Over side, while San Diego and Toronto flip to strong Under numbers.

Best First-5 Over Teams

Rank Team Over Record (O-U) ROI
1 Texas Rangers 63-41 +13.0%
2 Los Angeles Angels 62-43 +10.7%
3 Houston Astros 60-42 +8.9%
4 Washington Nationals 60-43 +8.4%
5 Minnesota Twins 60-44 +7.6%
6 Atlanta Braves 58-45 +4.9%
7 Chicago Cubs 60-47 +4.9%
8 Chicago White Sox 55-48 -0.2%
9 Philadelphia Phillies 56-51 -2.0%
10 Baltimore Orioles 53-48 -2.2%
11 Milwaukee Brewers 53-49 -2.9%
12 Arizona Diamondbacks 53-49 -3.2%
13 Miami Marlins 54-51 -3.2%
14 Colorado Rockies 54-51 -3.8%
15 Detroit Tigers 54-52 -3.9%
16 New York Mets 55-53 -4.4%
17 Pittsburgh Pirates 54-53 -5.7%
18 Athletics 50-54 -8.8%
19 San Francisco Giants 50-53 -9.2%
20 Boston Red Sox 49-53 -9.8%
21 Tampa Bay Rays 49-54 -10.3%
22 Cincinnati Reds 49-54 -10.5%
23 New York Yankees 50-55 -11.0%
24 Kansas City Royals 49-58 -13.2%
25 Seattle Mariners 46-56 -15.0%
26 Los Angeles Dodgers 48-58 -15.4%
27 St. Louis Cardinals 45-58 -18.2%
28 Cleveland Guardians 41-59 -21.2%
29 Toronto Blue Jays 42-63 -24.9%
30 San Diego Padres 40-63 -27.1%

Best First-5 Under Teams

Rank Team Under Record (O-U) ROI
1 San Diego Padres 40-63 +14.0%
2 Toronto Blue Jays 42-63 +12.5%
3 Cleveland Guardians 41-59 +10.3%
4 St. Louis Cardinals 45-58 +5.6%
5 Seattle Mariners 46-56 +3.6%
6 Los Angeles Dodgers 48-58 +3.1%
7 Kansas City Royals 49-58 +2.1%
8 Tampa Bay Rays 49-54 -1.8%
9 Cincinnati Reds 49-54 -2.0%
10 San Francisco Giants 50-53 -2.2%
11 New York Yankees 50-55 -2.5%
12 Athletics 50-54 -2.6%
13 Boston Red Sox 49-53 -3.2%
14 Pittsburgh Pirates 54-53 -7.8%
15 Colorado Rockies 54-51 -8.1%
16 New York Mets 55-53 -8.3%
17 Detroit Tigers 54-52 -8.4%
18 Arizona Diamondbacks 53-49 -9.0%
19 Milwaukee Brewers 53-49 -9.1%
20 Miami Marlins 54-51 -9.2%
21 Baltimore Orioles 53-48 -9.2%
22 Chicago White Sox 55-48 -10.9%
23 Philadelphia Phillies 56-51 -11.3%
24 Atlanta Braves 58-45 -17.2%
25 Chicago Cubs 60-47 -18.2%
26 Minnesota Twins 60-44 -19.3%
27 Houston Astros 60-42 -20.3%
28 Washington Nationals 60-43 -20.6%
29 Los Angeles Angels 62-43 -21.6%
30 Texas Rangers 63-41 -25.6%

Methodology

Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. A win is a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under, depending on the market. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits apply the same method to that subset of games. Flat staking keeps all 30 teams on equal footing so a handful of heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings.

For more MLB predictions and daily wagers, visit MLB Predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?

The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 61-45, returning 18.9 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Washington Nationals are second at 65-42 (plus 10.8 percent), with Milwaukee third, making all three reliable cover teams this season.

Which teams should bettors fade right now?

The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 41-67 (minus 25.6 percent), and the New York Mets have been the biggest moneyline drain at 46-63 (minus 23.3 percent). The Athletics are negative across the run line and moneyline, so there is no split that rescues them.

What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.

Which teams are the strongest Over plays?

The Pittsburgh Pirates top the full-game Over board at plus 11.4 percent, with the Chicago White Sox and Washington Nationals close behind. Minnesota and Atlanta lead the team-total Overs, so those lineups have cleared the number from a different angle.

Which teams are the best Under plays?

The St. Louis Cardinals lead full-game Unders at plus 8.8 percent, with Philadelphia and Detroit close behind. On team totals, the New York Mets are the strongest Under side at plus 15.5 percent, followed by San Francisco.

Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 71-38 behind a strong road mark, while San Diego and Toronto flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.

These tables reflect the 2026 season through July 30 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in wagers.

How is ROI calculated?

Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.

Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily wagers come down to the specific game in front of us.

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