2026 MLB Team Betting Trends: Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Rankings

By: Al MacMillan Updated 08/12/2026, 01:52 PM ET
Fact Checked by Devin Erickson-Sheehy

The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most profitable club to back on the run line, while the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to guide your MLB predictions and wagers.

Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through August 12, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.

The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 68-49, with Atlanta and Milwaukee close behind. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Tampa Bay Rays68-49+27.80u+19.4%
2Atlanta Braves63-56+14.70u+10.7%
3Milwaukee Brewers62-58+12.75u+9.3%
4Washington Nationals70-49+11.65u+7.1%
5Chicago White Sox67-48+5.25u+3.1%
6Arizona Diamondbacks65-52+3.55u+2.2%
7San Diego Padres64-55+3.10u+1.9%
8Baltimore Orioles62-57+2.15u+1.4%
9Boston Red Sox58-57+1.30u+0.9%
10Chicago Cubs58-60+1.15u+0.8%
11Minnesota Twins66-54-0.25u-0.1%
12St. Louis Cardinals65-52-1.50u-0.9%
13New York Yankees56-62-1.35u-1.0%
14Houston Astros62-59-2.10u-1.3%
15Detroit Tigers56-58-3.50u-2.3%
16Colorado Rockies63-57-4.85u-3.2%
17Toronto Blue Jays60-60-5.35u-3.4%
18Miami Marlins61-58-5.95u-3.7%
19Cincinnati Reds62-55-6.80u-4.1%
20Pittsburgh Pirates57-61-8.40u-5.5%
21New York Mets55-64-9.70u-6.4%
22Cleveland Guardians56-63-11.15u-7.2%
23San Francisco Giants57-61-19.05u-11.4%
24Texas Rangers53-64-17.90u-11.5%
25Athletics56-64-21.60u-13.4%
26Kansas City Royals55-61-22.45u-13.5%
27Los Angeles Angels57-62-23.55u-14.3%
28Los Angeles Dodgers50-69-23.05u-16.5%
29Seattle Mariners44-75-24.20u-18.3%
30Philadelphia Phillies46-74-34.95u-24.5%

Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. The Tampa Bay Rays top the board at 73-46, a rare case of an elite team that still pays its backers, with the Chicago White Sox second and Atlanta third. The Mets have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.

RankTeamRecordUnitsROI
1Tampa Bay Rays73-46+19.55u+13.0%
2Chicago White Sox61-57+11.05u+8.7%
3Atlanta Braves72-48+11.00u+6.7%
4Arizona Diamondbacks64-57+8.50u+6.0%
5Washington Nationals59-62+7.25u+5.6%
6Milwaukee Brewers74-46+9.40u+5.3%
7Chicago Cubs70-50+7.50u+4.7%
8St. Louis Cardinals60-60+4.40u+3.4%
9San Diego Padres64-57+3.55u+2.5%
10Miami Marlins61-59+2.60u+1.9%
11Minnesota Twins59-62-1.45u-1.1%
12Cincinnati Reds57-61-3.60u-2.7%
13Boston Red Sox64-55-4.20u-2.7%
14Colorado Rockies47-73-3.55u-2.9%
15Houston Astros61-60-4.90u-3.5%
16New York Yankees67-52-6.70u-3.8%
17Texas Rangers60-60-6.30u-4.5%
18Philadelphia Phillies64-57-9.90u-5.5%
19Cleveland Guardians58-62-9.25u-6.4%
20Baltimore Orioles58-62-9.25u-6.5%
21Detroit Tigers59-60-11.30u-7.5%
22Los Angeles Dodgers72-48-18.75u-8.1%
23Toronto Blue Jays58-63-13.55u-9.0%
24Pittsburgh Pirates58-63-15.00u-10.0%
25San Francisco Giants50-70-17.55u-13.2%
26Seattle Mariners56-64-24.70u-15.2%
27Los Angeles Angels46-74-21.05u-16.5%
28Kansas City Royals49-72-23.10u-17.3%
29Athletics47-73-25.15u-18.8%
30New York Mets53-68-29.50u-19.7%

Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. The Chicago White Sox and Washington have been the league's premier Over teams, while St. Louis and the Los Angeles Angels anchor the Under side.

Best Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Chicago White Sox67-49+10.4%
2Washington Nationals65-50+8.1%
3Pittsburgh Pirates66-51+7.6%
4Houston Astros64-50+6.0%
5Minnesota Twins63-50+5.5%
6Chicago Cubs64-54+3.9%
7Texas Rangers62-52+3.8%
8Cincinnati Reds62-54+1.9%
9Baltimore Orioles60-56-1.2%
10Seattle Mariners58-55-1.8%
11Athletics59-57-2.6%
12Toronto Blue Jays60-58-2.7%
13San Francisco Giants54-55-5.1%
14Miami Marlins58-59-5.4%
15Atlanta Braves56-58-5.9%
16New York Mets54-57-7.1%
17Colorado Rockies57-60-7.4%
18Cleveland Guardians58-62-7.4%
19Kansas City Royals56-62-8.9%
20Los Angeles Dodgers56-63-10.3%
21San Diego Padres55-63-10.7%
22Philadelphia Phillies53-62-11.2%
23Detroit Tigers52-61-11.3%
24Tampa Bay Rays52-62-12.1%
25Boston Red Sox53-62-12.1%
26Arizona Diamondbacks50-65-16.1%
27Milwaukee Brewers51-66-16.1%
28New York Yankees50-65-16.7%
29Los Angeles Angels51-67-16.8%
30St. Louis Cardinals48-67-19.8%

Best Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1St. Louis Cardinals48-67+10.7%
2Los Angeles Angels51-67+8.8%
3Arizona Diamondbacks50-65+8.0%
4New York Yankees50-65+7.8%
5Milwaukee Brewers51-66+7.8%
6Tampa Bay Rays52-62+3.4%
7Detroit Tigers52-61+3.3%
8Philadelphia Phillies53-62+3.1%
9Boston Red Sox53-62+2.8%
10San Diego Padres55-63+2.1%
11Los Angeles Dodgers56-63+1.3%
12Kansas City Royals56-62+0.8%
13Colorado Rockies57-60-1.5%
14Cleveland Guardians58-62-1.9%
15Atlanta Braves56-58-2.0%
16New York Mets54-57-2.1%
17San Francisco Giants54-55-3.2%
18Miami Marlins58-59-3.5%
19Athletics59-57-5.7%
20Toronto Blue Jays60-58-5.8%
21Seattle Mariners58-55-6.5%
22Baltimore Orioles60-56-7.2%
23Cincinnati Reds62-54-10.5%
24Texas Rangers62-52-11.6%
25Chicago Cubs64-54-12.0%
26Minnesota Twins63-50-14.6%
27Houston Astros64-50-15.4%
28Washington Nationals65-50-16.0%
29Pittsburgh Pirates66-51-16.0%
30Chicago White Sox67-49-19.2%

Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. The Chicago Cubs and Minnesota have cleared their team numbers more than any other lineups, while the Angels and Mets have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.

Best Team-Total Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Chicago Cubs69-51+7.7%
2Minnesota Twins68-53+5.5%
3Arizona Diamondbacks67-54+4.3%
4Washington Nationals67-54+4.2%
5Atlanta Braves66-54+3.5%
6Milwaukee Brewers64-56+1.2%
7Chicago White Sox63-55+0.4%
8Pittsburgh Pirates64-57-0.6%
9Tampa Bay Rays63-56-0.9%
10Detroit Tigers62-57-1.4%
11Baltimore Orioles62-58-2.6%
12Colorado Rockies63-57-2.7%
13Houston Astros60-61-4.8%
14St. Louis Cardinals60-60-5.3%
15Boston Red Sox59-60-6.5%
16Cleveland Guardians60-60-6.8%
17Texas Rangers59-61-8.4%
18San Diego Padres58-63-9.2%
19Philadelphia Phillies56-65-12.3%
20Miami Marlins55-65-12.5%
21Toronto Blue Jays53-68-17.7%
22Kansas City Royals53-68-17.9%
23Cincinnati Reds52-66-18.0%
24New York Yankees51-68-18.4%
25San Francisco Giants52-68-19.1%
26Athletics51-69-21.0%
27Los Angeles Dodgers50-70-21.8%
28Seattle Mariners50-70-22.2%
29Los Angeles Angels48-72-24.7%
30New York Mets50-71-24.7%

Best Team-Total Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Los Angeles Angels48-72+12.8%
2New York Mets50-71+12.2%
3Seattle Mariners50-70+10.9%
4Los Angeles Dodgers50-70+9.6%
5San Francisco Giants52-68+7.9%
6Athletics51-69+6.8%
7Toronto Blue Jays53-68+6.6%
8New York Yankees51-68+6.3%
9Cincinnati Reds52-66+6.1%
10Kansas City Royals53-68+6.1%
11Miami Marlins55-65+3.2%
12Philadelphia Phillies56-65+1.1%
13San Diego Padres58-63-2.9%
14Texas Rangers59-61-3.6%
15Boston Red Sox59-60-5.3%
16Cleveland Guardians60-60-5.8%
17St. Louis Cardinals60-60-6.2%
18Houston Astros60-61-6.6%
19Baltimore Orioles62-58-9.2%
20Colorado Rockies63-57-10.2%
21Detroit Tigers62-57-10.2%
22Tampa Bay Rays63-56-11.7%
23Chicago White Sox63-55-11.9%
24Milwaukee Brewers64-56-12.4%
25Pittsburgh Pirates64-57-12.8%
26Arizona Diamondbacks67-54-15.3%
27Atlanta Braves66-54-15.4%
28Washington Nationals67-54-16.4%
29Minnesota Twins68-53-17.3%
30Chicago Cubs69-51-21.0%

First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 76-45, with Tampa Bay and Atlanta close behind.

RankTeamATS RecordUnitsROI
1Washington Nationals76-45+25.70u+18.0%
2Tampa Bay Rays70-49+14.70u+10.3%
3Atlanta Braves68-52+11.50u+8.2%
4Detroit Tigers66-52+7.80u+5.5%
5Los Angeles Angels67-53+6.00u+4.2%
6St. Louis Cardinals68-52+5.35u+3.6%
7Pittsburgh Pirates65-56+1.55u+1.1%
8Chicago White Sox63-55-0.95u-0.7%
9Cincinnati Reds63-55-1.65u-1.1%
10San Diego Padres64-57-3.50u-2.4%
11Cleveland Guardians61-59-3.95u-2.8%
12Milwaukee Brewers60-59-4.20u-3.0%
13Miami Marlins62-58-6.00u-4.2%
14Colorado Rockies59-60-7.45u-5.4%
15Minnesota Twins61-60-8.00u-5.5%
16Arizona Diamondbacks59-61-10.55u-7.4%
17San Francisco Giants59-61-15.15u-10.2%
18Philadelphia Phillies57-64-14.70u-10.4%
19Boston Red Sox56-63-15.00u-10.8%
20New York Yankees56-63-15.70u-11.2%
21Chicago Cubs56-64-16.40u-11.7%
22Los Angeles Dodgers57-63-16.85u-11.7%
23Kansas City Royals57-64-18.00u-12.2%
24Baltimore Orioles55-65-18.45u-13.1%
25Athletics54-66-21.15u-15.1%
26Texas Rangers53-67-23.30u-16.4%
27Houston Astros53-68-25.35u-17.4%
28New York Mets52-69-26.30u-18.3%
29Toronto Blue Jays53-68-26.95u-18.7%
30Seattle Mariners49-71-30.25u-22.0%

The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. Texas, Houston, and Minnesota lead the Over side, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong Under numbers.

Best First-5 Over Teams

RankTeamOver Record (O-U)ROI
1Texas Rangers68-48+9.6%
2Houston Astros66-47+8.4%
3Minnesota Twins67-49+7.6%
4Washington Nationals65-50+5.5%
5Los Angeles Angels65-51+5.1%
6Chicago Cubs66-53+3.9%
7Atlanta Braves63-52+2.4%
8Chicago White Sox61-53-0.0%
9New York Mets64-56-0.1%
10Milwaukee Brewers61-53-0.4%
11Pittsburgh Pirates62-57-2.4%
12Colorado Rockies59-55-3.2%
13Miami Marlins59-57-4.4%
14Philadelphia Phillies60-58-4.6%
15Arizona Diamondbacks58-56-5.0%
16Detroit Tigers58-57-5.0%
17Boston Red Sox57-56-5.1%
18Baltimore Orioles56-55-5.6%
19Athletics57-58-6.0%
20San Francisco Giants56-59-8.7%
21Cincinnati Reds55-59-8.9%
22Los Angeles Dodgers56-62-11.3%
23Kansas City Royals55-64-12.6%
24Tampa Bay Rays53-62-13.1%
25New York Yankees52-64-15.9%
26Cleveland Guardians48-62-17.0%
27Seattle Mariners49-63-17.4%
28San Diego Padres49-67-21.0%
29St. Louis Cardinals47-66-21.5%
30Toronto Blue Jays46-71-26.1%

Best First-5 Under Teams

RankTeamUnder Record (O-U)ROI
1Toronto Blue Jays46-71+13.7%
2St. Louis Cardinals47-66+9.0%
3San Diego Padres49-67+8.2%
4Seattle Mariners49-63+5.9%
5Cleveland Guardians48-62+5.7%
6New York Yankees52-64+2.6%
7Kansas City Royals55-64+1.3%
8Tampa Bay Rays53-62+1.0%
9Los Angeles Dodgers56-62-1.1%
10San Francisco Giants56-59-2.4%
11Cincinnati Reds55-59-2.9%
12Athletics57-58-5.1%
13Baltimore Orioles56-55-5.7%
14Arizona Diamondbacks58-56-6.8%
15Detroit Tigers58-57-7.5%
16Boston Red Sox57-56-7.5%
17Miami Marlins59-57-7.9%
18Colorado Rockies59-55-8.5%
19Philadelphia Phillies60-58-8.6%
20Pittsburgh Pirates62-57-10.5%
21Chicago White Sox61-53-11.3%
22Milwaukee Brewers61-53-11.9%
23New York Mets64-56-12.6%
24Atlanta Braves63-52-14.4%
25Los Angeles Angels65-51-16.2%
26Chicago Cubs66-53-17.2%
27Washington Nationals65-50-17.4%
28Minnesota Twins67-49-19.6%
29Houston Astros66-47-19.7%
30Texas Rangers68-48-21.9%

Methodology

Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. A win is a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under, depending on the market. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits apply the same method to that subset of games. Flat staking keeps all 30 teams on equal footing so a handful of heavy favorites or longshots cannot distort the rankings.

For more MLB predictions and daily wagers, visit MLB Predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?

The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 68-49, returning 19.4 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Atlanta Braves are second at 63-56 (plus 10.7 percent), with Milwaukee third, making all three reliable cover teams this season.

Which teams should bettors fade right now?

The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 46-74 (minus 24.5 percent), and the New York Mets have been the biggest moneyline drain at 53-68 (minus 19.7 percent). The Athletics are negative across the run line and moneyline, so there is no split that rescues them.

What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.

Which teams are the strongest Over plays?

The Chicago White Sox top the full-game Over board at 67-49 (plus 10.4 percent), with the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates close behind. The Chicago Cubs and Minnesota lead the team-total Overs, so those lineups have cleared the number from a different angle.

Which teams are the best Under plays?

The St. Louis Cardinals lead full-game Unders at 48-67 (plus 10.7 percent), with the Los Angeles Angels and Arizona close behind. On team totals, the Los Angeles Angels are the strongest Under side at plus 12.8 percent, followed by the New York Mets.

Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 76-45, while Toronto and San Diego flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.

These tables reflect the 2026 season through August 12 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in wagers.

How is ROI calculated?

Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.

Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily wagers come down to the specific game in front of us.

21+. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Odds and records reflect the 2026 MLB season through August 12, 2026 and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+ (18+ WY). AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/MI/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. T&C's Apply. Void where prohibited. If you click on a link on this site which takes you to a bookmaker or casino and you subsequently open an account, Pick and Parlays may receive a commission. Bets placed are the responsibility of the bettor.

Copyright © 2026 Picks and Parlays. All rights reserved.

The sports news and information contained at this site is for entertainment purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of laws whether they are federal, state and/or local is prohibited. Picks and Parlays is the nation's premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information.

Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Special Offer
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Play now Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET (Available in the US) 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Promotional offers not available in Mississippi, New York, Ontario, or Puerto Rico.