2026 MLB Team Betting Trends: Run Line, Moneyline, and Totals Rankings

By: Al MacMillan Updated 07/11/2026, 08:37 AM ET
Fact Checked by Devin Erickson-Sheehy

The 2026 MLB season has produced clear separation in the betting market, and the team-by-team numbers tell the story. The Tampa Bay Rays and Washington Nationals have been among the most profitable clubs to back across multiple markets, while the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have been steady money-losers no matter the side. Below are the full 30-team rankings for every major market, sorted by return on investment, to guide your MLB predictions and wagers.

Records reflect flat 1-unit stakes at the closing line through July 11, 2026. A positive ROI means blindly backing that side all season would have shown a profit.

The run line applies a 1.5-run spread to every game. Tampa Bay leads the league at 54-38, with Milwaukee and Atlanta close behind. On the other end, Philadelphia has been baseball's worst run-line team by a wide margin.

Rank Team Record Units ROI
1 Tampa Bay Rays 54-38 +24.1u +21.6%
2 Milwaukee Brewers 51-42 +16.2u +15.1%
3 Atlanta Braves 49-43 +11.2u +10.6%
4 Washington Nationals 57-36 +13.5u +10.3%
5 Miami Marlins 52-42 +6.7u +5.3%
6 St. Louis Cardinals 54-37 +5.5u +4.1%
7 Colorado Rockies 53-43 +1.6u +1.4%
8 Arizona Diamondbacks 51-41 +1.2u +1.0%
9 Chicago White Sox 52-38 +0.8u +0.6%
10 Cincinnati Reds 51-41 -1.8u -1.4%
11 Pittsburgh Pirates 46-46 -1.8u -1.5%
12 San Diego Padres 48-44 -2.5u -1.9%
13 Detroit Tigers 44-45 -2.6u -2.2%
14 Toronto Blue Jays 46-47 -3.5u -2.8%
15 Boston Red Sox 43-46 -3.5u -3.0%
16 New York Yankees 43-50 -3.2u -3.1%
17 Minnesota Twins 51-44 -5.0u -3.7%
18 Baltimore Orioles 45-49 -6.4u -5.3%
19 Cleveland Guardians 45-49 -6.5u -5.3%
20 Texas Rangers 43-48 -8.9u -7.3%
21 Los Angeles Dodgers 44-51 -9.8u -8.8%
22 Houston Astros 46-50 -11.9u -9.1%
23 Los Angeles Angels 47-47 -12.2u -9.4%
24 Seattle Mariners 38-57 -10.7u -10.4%
25 Chicago Cubs 40-53 -11.9u -10.8%
26 New York Mets 39-54 -13.8u -12.3%
27 Athletics 44-50 -15.9u -12.7%
28 San Francisco Giants 42-51 -22.1u -16.9%
29 Kansas City Royals 40-52 -26.0u -19.6%
30 Philadelphia Phillies 35-59 -30.2u -27.1%

Moneyline ROI rewards teams the market has underrated, not just the ones that win most. Washington tops the list even at 48-47 because so many of those wins came as an underdog — its road number is a league-best 28-18. Tampa Bay and the Chicago White Sox round out the profitable side, while the Mets have been the single biggest moneyline drain in the sport.

Rank Team Record Units ROI
1 Washington Nationals 48-47 +11.1u +11.1%
2 Tampa Bay Rays 55-37 +12.2u +10.6%
3 Chicago White Sox 48-45 +9.8u +9.9%
4 St. Louis Cardinals 49-44 +9.6u +9.7%
5 Milwaukee Brewers 59-34 +12.6u +9.5%
6 Miami Marlins 52-43 +10.3u +9.2%
7 Atlanta Braves 54-39 +3.4u +2.7%
8 Colorado Rockies 39-57 +2.4u +2.5%
9 Cleveland Guardians 49-46 +1.4u +1.2%
10 Chicago Cubs 52-42 -1.0u -0.8%
11 Arizona Diamondbacks 47-47 -1.1u -1.0%
12 Minnesota Twins 46-49 -1.1u -1.1%
13 Philadelphia Phillies 52-43 -2.1u -1.6%
14 Texas Rangers 48-46 -2.4u -2.1%
15 Los Angeles Dodgers 61-34 -5.8u -3.1%
16 San Diego Padres 46-48 -4.6u -4.2%
17 Houston Astros 46-50 -6.8u -6.2%
18 New York Yankees 52-42 -8.9u -6.3%
19 Cincinnati Reds 43-50 -6.5u -6.3%
20 Pittsburgh Pirates 47-47 -8.8u -7.4%
21 Baltimore Orioles 44-51 -11.8u -10.5%
22 Detroit Tigers 44-50 -12.4u -10.9%
23 Toronto Blue Jays 45-49 -13.6u -11.4%
24 Seattle Mariners 47-48 -14.9u -11.6%
25 Boston Red Sox 44-48 -14.2u -12.5%
26 Athletics 41-53 -14.1u -13.1%
27 Los Angeles Angels 38-57 -13.7u -13.5%
28 San Francisco Giants 39-55 -15.2u -14.6%
29 Kansas City Royals 38-57 -21.1u -19.8%
30 New York Mets 40-55 -29.9u -24.5%

Totals splits cut both ways, so we rank the Over and the Under separately. The Nationals and Twins have been the league's premier Over teams, while San Diego and Arizona anchor the Under side.

Best Over Teams

Rank Team Over Record (O-U) ROI
1 Washington Nationals 55-35 +16.2%
2 Minnesota Twins 54-35 +14.6%
3 Pittsburgh Pirates 54-37 +13.0%
4 Chicago White Sox 53-38 +11.3%
5 Cincinnati Reds 52-40 +7.7%
6 Baltimore Orioles 51-41 +5.5%
7 Miami Marlins 51-41 +5.3%
8 Houston Astros 50-40 +4.7%
9 Chicago Cubs 50-43 +3.2%
10 Texas Rangers 46-42 -0.1%
11 Toronto Blue Jays 47-44 -1.1%
12 New York Mets 45-42 -1.7%
13 San Francisco Giants 44-42 -2.2%
14 Atlanta Braves 44-43 -3.0%
15 Seattle Mariners 46-46 -4.2%
16 Los Angeles Angels 46-47 -5.0%
17 Athletics 45-46 -5.2%
18 Kansas City Royals 46-48 -6.3%
19 Colorado Rockies 45-48 -7.7%
20 Boston Red Sox 42-46 -9.0%
21 Cleveland Guardians 45-50 -9.1%
22 Tampa Bay Rays 41-47 -10.4%
23 New York Yankees 42-48 -10.9%
24 Los Angeles Dodgers 44-51 -11.7%
25 Detroit Tigers 41-49 -12.4%
26 Philadelphia Phillies 41-50 -13.2%
27 Milwaukee Brewers 41-50 -13.5%
28 St. Louis Cardinals 40-49 -13.6%
29 Arizona Diamondbacks 39-50 -15.2%
30 San Diego Padres 40-52 -16.5%

Best Under Teams

Rank Team Under Record (O-U) ROI
1 San Diego Padres 40-52 +8.0%
2 Arizona Diamondbacks 39-50 +7.3%
3 Philadelphia Phillies 41-50 +5.1%
4 Milwaukee Brewers 41-50 +4.9%
5 St. Louis Cardinals 40-49 +4.7%
6 Detroit Tigers 41-49 +4.2%
7 Los Angeles Dodgers 44-51 +2.6%
8 New York Yankees 42-48 +1.9%
9 Tampa Bay Rays 41-47 +1.6%
10 Cleveland Guardians 45-50 +0.1%
11 Boston Red Sox 42-46 -0.4%
12 Colorado Rockies 45-48 -1.1%
13 Kansas City Royals 46-48 -2.1%
14 Los Angeles Angels 46-47 -2.7%
15 Athletics 45-46 -3.0%
16 Seattle Mariners 46-46 -4.2%
17 Atlanta Braves 44-43 -4.8%
18 San Francisco Giants 44-42 -6.2%
19 Toronto Blue Jays 47-44 -7.1%
20 New York Mets 45-42 -7.5%
21 Texas Rangers 46-42 -7.6%
22 Chicago Cubs 50-43 -10.9%
23 Houston Astros 50-40 -14.0%
24 Miami Marlins 51-41 -14.2%
25 Baltimore Orioles 51-41 -14.3%
26 Cincinnati Reds 52-40 -16.3%
27 Chicago White Sox 53-38 -20.1%
28 Pittsburgh Pirates 54-37 -21.4%
29 Minnesota Twins 54-35 -23.4%
30 Washington Nationals 55-35 -24.1%

Team totals isolate one club's run production rather than the combined score. Minnesota has cleared its team number more than any other lineup, while the Mets and Giants have been the most dependable team-total Under sides.

Best Team-Total Over Teams

Rank Team Over Record (O-U) ROI
1 Minnesota Twins 58-37 +14.2%
2 Atlanta Braves 55-38 +10.2%
3 Washington Nationals 54-41 +7.0%
4 Pittsburgh Pirates 53-41 +5.9%
5 Tampa Bay Rays 52-40 +5.2%
6 Milwaukee Brewers 51-42 +4.3%
7 Chicago White Sox 51-42 +2.8%
8 Chicago Cubs 51-43 +2.6%
9 Arizona Diamondbacks 51-43 +2.4%
10 St. Louis Cardinals 50-43 +1.3%
11 Detroit Tigers 49-45 -1.2%
12 Colorado Rockies 51-45 -1.9%
13 Baltimore Orioles 49-46 -3.9%
14 Miami Marlins 47-48 -5.5%
15 Houston Astros 45-51 -9.7%
16 Cleveland Guardians 46-49 -9.8%
17 Boston Red Sox 44-48 -10.2%
18 Texas Rangers 45-49 -10.6%
19 New York Yankees 44-50 -10.7%
20 Philadelphia Phillies 43-52 -14.4%
21 Toronto Blue Jays 43-51 -14.4%
22 Los Angeles Angels 42-53 -16.9%
23 Kansas City Royals 42-53 -17.4%
24 San Diego Padres 41-53 -17.8%
25 Athletics 41-53 -19.1%
26 Los Angeles Dodgers 41-54 -19.6%
27 Cincinnati Reds 40-53 -20.0%
28 Seattle Mariners 40-55 -21.5%
29 San Francisco Giants 39-55 -22.4%
30 New York Mets 38-57 -27.0%

Best Team-Total Under Teams

Rank Team Under Record (O-U) ROI
1 New York Mets 38-57 +14.2%
2 San Francisco Giants 39-55 +11.5%
3 Seattle Mariners 40-55 +9.5%
4 Cincinnati Reds 40-53 +7.6%
5 Los Angeles Dodgers 41-54 +6.8%
6 San Diego Padres 41-53 +5.5%
7 Athletics 41-53 +5.2%
8 Kansas City Royals 42-53 +4.7%
9 Los Angeles Angels 42-53 +4.6%
10 Philadelphia Phillies 43-52 +3.4%
11 Toronto Blue Jays 43-51 +3.3%
12 Texas Rangers 45-49 -0.7%
13 New York Yankees 44-50 -0.8%
14 Houston Astros 45-51 -1.6%
15 Boston Red Sox 44-48 -2.0%
16 Cleveland Guardians 46-49 -2.2%
17 Miami Marlins 47-48 -3.5%
18 Baltimore Orioles 49-46 -8.5%
19 Detroit Tigers 49-45 -10.0%
20 Colorado Rockies 51-45 -11.2%
21 St. Louis Cardinals 50-43 -13.3%
22 Arizona Diamondbacks 51-43 -13.5%
23 Chicago White Sox 51-42 -14.3%
24 Milwaukee Brewers 51-42 -15.1%
25 Chicago Cubs 51-43 -15.4%
26 Tampa Bay Rays 52-40 -19.1%
27 Washington Nationals 54-41 -19.1%
28 Pittsburgh Pirates 53-41 -19.1%
29 Atlanta Braves 55-38 -23.0%
30 Minnesota Twins 58-37 -26.3%

First-5 markets settle after five innings, isolating the starting pitchers and removing bullpen and late-inning noise. Washington has been the standout at 62-33, driven by a 33-13 road mark, with Tampa Bay and the Angels close behind.

Rank Team Record Units ROI
1 Washington Nationals 62-33 +24.8u +22.0%
2 Tampa Bay Rays 55-37 +13.3u +12.1%
3 Los Angeles Angels 55-40 +8.7u +7.6%
4 St. Louis Cardinals 54-39 +7.0u +6.1%
5 Pittsburgh Pirates 53-41 +5.8u +5.3%
6 Detroit Tigers 52-41 +5.7u +5.1%
7 Atlanta Braves 50-43 +3.6u +3.3%
8 Cleveland Guardians 51-44 +3.6u +3.3%
9 Cincinnati Reds 51-42 +1.6u +1.5%
10 Milwaukee Brewers 48-44 -0.2u -0.2%
11 Minnesota Twins 50-45 -1.3u -1.1%
12 Chicago White Sox 49-44 -2.2u -1.9%
13 Los Angeles Dodgers 49-46 -5.4u -4.7%
14 San Diego Padres 48-46 -5.3u -4.8%
15 Miami Marlins 48-47 -6.7u -6.0%
16 Colorado Rockies 47-48 -6.7u -6.0%
17 New York Yankees 43-51 -14.8u -13.5%
18 Arizona Diamondbacks 43-50 -15.2u -13.5%
19 Athletics 43-51 -15.1u -13.8%
20 Kansas City Royals 44-51 -16.2u -13.9%
21 Baltimore Orioles 43-52 -15.6u -14.1%
22 San Francisco Giants 44-50 -16.8u -14.4%
23 Texas Rangers 42-52 -16.6u -15.0%
24 Chicago Cubs 42-52 -16.5u -15.0%
25 Boston Red Sox 41-51 -16.4u -15.1%
26 Seattle Mariners 41-54 -18.1u -16.8%
27 Toronto Blue Jays 42-52 -18.9u -16.9%
28 Philadelphia Phillies 41-54 -19.1u -17.2%
29 New York Mets 40-55 -22.2u -20.0%
30 Houston Astros 40-56 -25.2u -21.7%

The first-5 total tracks only the runs scored through five innings. The Angels and Nationals lead the Over side, while San Diego and Toronto flip to strong Under numbers.

Best First-5 Over Teams

Rank Team Over Record (O-U) ROI
1 Los Angeles Angels 55-36 +13.2%
2 Washington Nationals 54-35 +12.6%
3 Minnesota Twins 54-37 +11.1%
4 Houston Astros 54-36 +10.8%
5 Atlanta Braves 51-37 +8.1%
6 Texas Rangers 52-39 +6.9%
7 Chicago Cubs 51-42 +2.9%
8 Miami Marlins 49-42 +0.8%
9 Pittsburgh Pirates 50-43 +0.4%
10 Arizona Diamondbacks 48-42 -0.9%
11 Chicago White Sox 48-43 -1.2%
12 New York Mets 49-45 -2.2%
13 Colorado Rockies 49-45 -2.3%
14 Baltimore Orioles 45-42 -3.2%
15 Philadelphia Phillies 48-45 -3.2%
16 Kansas City Royals 47-46 -4.5%
17 Athletics 45-45 -5.1%
18 Milwaukee Brewers 45-44 -5.8%
19 New York Yankees 46-46 -6.2%
20 Cincinnati Reds 44-45 -6.7%
21 Detroit Tigers 45-46 -6.8%
22 San Francisco Giants 44-45 -7.2%
23 Boston Red Sox 42-45 -9.4%
24 Tampa Bay Rays 42-46 -9.9%
25 Los Angeles Dodgers 43-50 -13.6%
26 St. Louis Cardinals 40-50 -17.1%
27 Cleveland Guardians 37-49 -17.9%
28 Seattle Mariners 38-50 -17.9%
29 Toronto Blue Jays 35-55 -26.7%
30 San Diego Padres 34-55 -28.1%

Best First-5 Under Teams

Rank Team Under Record (O-U) ROI
1 San Diego Padres 34-55 +14.8%
2 Toronto Blue Jays 35-55 +14.1%
3 Cleveland Guardians 37-49 +6.9%
4 Seattle Mariners 38-50 +6.3%
5 St. Louis Cardinals 40-50 +4.5%
6 Los Angeles Dodgers 43-50 +1.1%
7 Tampa Bay Rays 42-46 -2.0%
8 Boston Red Sox 42-45 -3.4%
9 San Francisco Giants 44-45 -3.9%
10 Cincinnati Reds 44-45 -5.3%
11 Detroit Tigers 45-46 -5.5%
12 Athletics 45-45 -6.2%
13 Kansas City Royals 47-46 -6.4%
14 Milwaukee Brewers 45-44 -6.4%
15 New York Yankees 46-46 -6.9%
16 Baltimore Orioles 45-42 -8.0%
17 Colorado Rockies 49-45 -9.6%
18 Chicago White Sox 48-43 -10.0%
19 Philadelphia Phillies 48-45 -10.2%
20 New York Mets 49-45 -10.7%
21 Arizona Diamondbacks 48-42 -11.7%
22 Miami Marlins 49-42 -13.4%
23 Pittsburgh Pirates 50-43 -14.0%
24 Chicago Cubs 51-42 -15.8%
25 Atlanta Braves 51-37 -20.0%
26 Texas Rangers 52-39 -20.0%
27 Minnesota Twins 54-37 -22.3%
28 Houston Astros 54-36 -22.6%
29 Los Angeles Angels 55-36 -23.9%
30 Washington Nationals 54-35 -24.8%

Methodology

Every market treats each qualifying game as a flat 1-unit wager settled at the closing line. Wins and losses are recorded straight from the final result — a cover, a straight-up win, or an Over or Under. Units is the cumulative profit or loss; ROI is units divided by total bets, shown as a percentage. Home and away splits use the same method applied only to that subset of games. This flat-staking approach keeps every team on equal footing and prevents a few heavy favorites or longshots from distorting the rankings.

For more MLB predictions and daily wagers, visit MLB Predictions.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which MLB team has the best run line trend in 2026?

The Tampa Bay Rays lead the league against the run line at 54-38, returning 21.6 percent on flat 1-unit stakes. The Milwaukee Brewers are second at 51-42 (plus 15.1 percent), making both the most reliable cover teams this season.

Which teams should bettors fade right now?

The Philadelphia Phillies are the worst run-line team in baseball at 35-59 (minus 27.1 percent), and the New York Mets have been the biggest moneyline drain at 40-55 (minus 24.5 percent). Both have bled units at home and on the road, so there is no split that rescues them.

What is the difference between the run line and the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on who wins. The run line applies a 1.5-run spread — the favorite must win by two or more, or the underdog must lose by one or win outright. Because so many MLB games are decided by a single run, run-line results often diverge sharply from moneyline records.

Which teams are the strongest Over plays?

The Washington Nationals top the full-game Over board at 55-35 (plus 16.2 percent), with the Minnesota Twins right behind at 54-35 (plus 14.6 percent). The Twins also lead team totals on the Over, so their bats have cleared the number from both angles.

Which teams are the best Under plays?

The New York Mets lead team-total Unders at 38-57 (plus 14.2 percent) and the San Francisco Giants follow at 39-55 (plus 11.5 percent). On full-game totals, San Diego and Arizona have been the most reliable Under sides.

Yes. The first-5 markets isolate the starting pitchers and remove bullpen and late-inning scoring. Washington leads the F5 run line at 62-33, while the Angels top the F5 Over and San Diego and Toronto flip to strong F5 Under sides even though their full-game numbers look different.

These tables reflect the 2026 season through July 11 and are refreshed as new results come in. Records and ROI move daily during the season, so check back before locking in wagers.

How is ROI calculated?

Every wager is treated as a flat 1-unit stake at the closing line. Units is the running profit or loss across all of a team's games; ROI is that unit total divided by the number of bets, expressed as a percentage. A positive ROI means backing that side blindly all season would have turned a profit.

Season-long ROI tables are a starting point, not a finished play. A team covering the run line at a strong clip tells you the market has been slow to adjust to how it wins games — but the matchup, the starting pitcher, and the closing number still decide each night. We treat these rankings as a filter: they surface which sides the market has mispriced across a full season, and from there the daily wagers come down to the specific game in front of us.

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