Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 5, 2025
Use Code WWWC Boston Red Sox (78-63) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (70-71)
The Boston Red Sox head to Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, on Friday night to square off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the interleague showdown with the first pitch at 9:40 PM ET, so we have prepared the Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks prediction to get you covered.
Boston and Arizona open their three-game regular-season series, and the Diamondbacks aim for their fifth straight win over the Red Sox. Last year, the D-backs swept a three-game series at Fenway Park in Boston (12-2, 4-1, and 7-5).
Let’s look closer at this Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks prediction, one of our MLB picks for Friday’s slate. The Red Sox are slight -120 moneyline favorites with a total of 8.5 runs.
The Red Sox are fighting for a playoff spot
The Boston Red Sox are coming off Wednesday’s 8-1 defeat to the Cleveland Guardians. The Sawx failed to sweep a three-game series against the Guardians, putting an end to their three-game winning streak. They were 3.5 games behind the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday morning, holding the second wild card in the American League.
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Boston has won three of its previous four series and 10 of their last 14 games overall. During that 14-game stretch, the Red Sox have scored 64 runs on a solid .274/.339/.437 triple-slash, while their bullpen has compiled a 3.12 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and a .228 batting average against.
Payton Tolle will be on the bump on Friday. The 22-year-old left-hander made his MLB debut last Friday, throwing 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Pirates. Tolle gave up two earned runs on three hits and two walks while punching out eight.
Interestingly, Tolle started the season with High-A Greenville. He’s thrown 91.2 innings in the minors this season, posting a strong 3.04 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
The Diamondbacks are playing a spoiler
The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off Wednesday’s 2-0 blanking of the Texas Rangers in a rubber match of a three-game series at Chase Field. The D-backs clinched their second consecutive series victory, as Arizona took two out of three from the Dodgers last weekend.
Arizona has won six of its previous eight games overall, but the Diamondbacks were 5.5 games behind the final wild-card spot in the National League on Thursday morning. During that eight-game stretch, the D-backs have accounted for 34 runs on a .225/.281/.382 triple-slash, while their bullpen has recorded a 2.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a .202 batting average against.
Eduardo Rodriguez will take the mound on Friday night. The 32-year-old left-hander is 6-8 with a pedestrian 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 24 starts (125 innings pitched) this season. He went 3-1 in August, posting a 4.73 ERA and 4.56 FIP across six starts and 32.1 innings of work.
Rodriguez, who started his MLB career with Boston in 2015, is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in two career starts against the Red Sox. The current Sawx are 22-for-67 with five doubles, a triple, and four home runs against Rodriguez.
Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Pick
Spread Pick for Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks
- Boston Red Sox (5 units)
Eduardo Rodriguez pitched well last time out, allowing four hits and four walks across six scoreless innings in a 6-1 victory over the Dodgers. However, Rodriguez has yielded at least four earned runs in four of his previous seven starts. The Red Sox have a strong record against him, so I’m going with Boston.
Payton Tolle did a decent job in his major league debut. The Diamondbacks have recorded a 126 wRC+ against the lefties in the last 10 days, but I expect Tolle to give his team a chance. The Red Sox have accounted for a 102 wRC+ against the southpaws in the past 10 days.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks
- Over 8.5 Runs (5 units)
I expect the Red Sox to score early and often. Alex Bregman is 8-for-27 with two doubles and three home runs against Eduardo Rodriguez. Nathaniel Lowe is 4-for-9 with a double, and Trevor Story is 5-for-10 with two doubles versus Rodriguez.
I’m backing Payton Tolle to pitch well, but he’ll allow at least a run or two. Hereof, I will take the over on the total, even though both bullpens have done a good job lately. Frankly, I don’t trust the Diamondbacks ‘pen, which owns a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2025.
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