Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 5 2026

The Boston Red Sox visit the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET, televised on MLB.TV. Boston is 76-65, third in the AL East and 7.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The Red Sox hold the second AL Wild Card position, five games above the cutoff, and are 2-3 over their last five after Thursday’s 6-5 win over Baltimore. The Orioles are 69-72, fifth in the AL East and 14.5 games back. Baltimore is one game behind the final Wild Card position and has lost three straight after Thursday’s defeat. Check out our free MLB picks.

Boston Red Sox Have an Edge on the Mound

Boston ranks seventh in MLB with a .250 batting average and has scored 633 runs with a .323 on-base percentage. Willson Contreras leads the Red Sox with 26 home runs and 79 RBI while batting .274 with a .384 on-base percentage. Ceddanne Rafaela is batting .282 with 151 hits, 16 home runs and 70 RBI, while Wilyer Abreu has 23 homers and 70 RBI. Caleb Durbin has added 17 stolen bases and 62 RBI. Boston has several regular hitters capable of producing extra-base hits and reaching base.

Pitching has been Boston’s larger advantage. The Red Sox rank fourth in MLB with a 3.66 team ERA and have a 1.24 WHIP while holding opponents to a .243 batting average. Boston is 41-31 away and owns a plus-77 run differential in the Wild Card standings. Recent results have been uneven, with losses of 8-3 and 9-6 against Seattle before Thursday’s win in Baltimore. The Red Sox have allowed at least five runs in four consecutive games, making Sonny Gray’s start particularly important Saturday.

Injuries: Ceddanne Rafaela is day-to-day. Johan Oviedo, Kutter Crawford, Zack Kelly and Justin Slaten are on the injured list.

Baltimore Orioles Try to End a Three-Game Slide

Baltimore ranks 26th in MLB with a .235 batting average, but the Orioles have hit 172 home runs and scored 640 runs. Pete Alonso has been Baltimore’s leading power hitter with 33 home runs, 94 RBI and a .269 average. Gunnar Henderson has 22 homers, 57 RBI and 10 stolen bases, while Coby Mayo has added 19 home runs and 55 RBI. Samuel Basallo has 17 homers, and Colton Cowser has 13 despite batting .215. Baltimore’s power numbers are stronger than its overall batting average.

The Orioles have dropped three straight, losing 4-2 and 6-5 in Colorado before Thursday’s 6-5 home loss to Boston. Baltimore is 34-35 at Camden Yards and has a minus-20 run differential in the Wild Card standings. The Orioles rank 16th in MLB pitching with a 4.16 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, and opponents are batting .255 against the staff. Baltimore has allowed 147 home runs, but Chris Bassitt’s individual numbers create another concern for Saturday’s matchup.

Injuries: Tyler O'Neill, Felix Bautista, Christian Franklin, Ryan Helsley and Ryan Mountcastle are on the injured list.

Pitching Matchup

Boston Red Sox - Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray is 16-4 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 143.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 132 hits and 37 walks while striking out 128. Gray has surrendered 15 home runs across his workload. His 169 combined hits and walks have come over nearly 144 innings, while the 2.82 ERA is one of the strongest numbers in Saturday’s starting pitching matchup.

Baltimore Orioles - Chris Bassitt

Chris Bassitt is 6-4 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP through 79.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 97 hits, 29 walks and nine home runs while recording 55 strikeouts. Bassitt has permitted 126 combined hits and walks in fewer than 80 innings. His 1.58 WHIP and 4.97 ERA are the two numbers that stand out most from his season heading into Saturday.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Game Pick

• Boston Red Sox

Boston has the stronger starting pitcher and better full-season pitching numbers. Sonny Gray is 16-4 with a 2.82 ERA, while Chris Bassitt owns a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The Red Sox also rank fourth in MLB with a 3.66 team ERA and have a plus-77 run differential. Baltimore has lost three straight and carries a 4.16 team ERA. Boston won Thursday’s opener and is 41-31 away. With Gray holding the clearest pitching edge, Boston is the pick Saturday night in Baltimore for this matchup.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Over/Under Pick

• Over

Recent scoring results point toward Over, especially with Bassitt starting for Baltimore. The right-hander has a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP across 79.2 innings, allowing 97 hits and 29 walks. Boston has scored at least six runs in three of its last four games, while Baltimore has allowed at least four runs in three straight. The Orioles have scored 640 runs and hit 172 home runs this season. With Bassitt’s baserunner numbers creating scoring potential, over is the pick Saturday night at Camden Yards.