Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 6, 2026

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles meet Sunday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with the opening pitch scheduled for 1:35 PM ET and the game televised on MLB.TV. Boston is 77-65, third in the AL East and 7.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The Red Sox hold the second AL Wild Card spot. Baltimore is 69-73, fifth in the AL East and 15.5 games behind Tampa Bay, with the Orioles 1.5 games behind the final Wild Card spot. Boston is 4-6 over its last 10 games, while Baltimore is 6-4 during its last 10. Get ready for Sunday’s matchup with our free MLB picks.

Boston Red Sox in the Thick of Wild Card Race

Boston has taken the first two games of this series, winning 6-5 on Thursday and 1-0 on Friday. Those victories followed consecutive losses to Seattle, and the Red Sox have scored 25 runs across their last five games. Boston is batting .249 with a .323 on-base percentage and .407 slugging percentage. Ceddanne Rafaela leads the club with a .282 average and 151 hits, while Wilyer Abreu has 23 home runs and 70 RBI.

The Red Sox pitching staff ranks eighth in MLB with a 3.67 ERA and has posted a 1.24 WHIP with a .242 opponent batting average. Boston pitchers have recorded 1,205 strikeouts and 55 quality starts. The Red Sox are 42-31 away from home. Willson Contreras has been a major source of power with 26 home runs and 79 RBI, while Caleb Durbin has 17 stolen bases and 62 RBI in 135 games.

Injuries: Ceddanne Rafaela is day-to-day. Kutter Crawford and Zack Kelly are on the 60-Day IL, Justin Slaten is on the 15-Day IL, and Willson Contreras is on the 10-Day IL.

Baltimore Orioles Have Dropped Four Straight

Baltimore has lost four consecutive games, including the first two games of this series. The Orioles scored five runs Thursday but were shut out Friday, and Baltimore has produced 14 runs across its last five games. The Orioles are batting .235 with a .316 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage. Pete Alonso leads Baltimore with a .267 average, 33 home runs, 94 RBI and 142 hits. Gunnar Henderson has added 22 homers and 57 RBI.

The Orioles rank 18th in MLB pitching with a 4.18 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and .254 opponent batting average. Baltimore has recorded 1,130 strikeouts and 55 quality starts. The Orioles are 34-36 at Camden Yards. Coby Mayo has hit 19 home runs with 55 RBI, while Samuel Basallo has 17 homers and 50 RBI. Baltimore's 172 team home runs are 24 more than Boston's 148, but the Orioles have a lower team batting average.

Injuries: Tyler O'Neill and Christian Franklin are on the 10-Day IL. Felix Bautista, Ryan Helsley and Ryan Mountcastle are on the 60-Day IL.

Pitching Matchup

Boston Red Sox - Payton Tolle

Payton Tolle is 8-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 131 innings. The left-hander has allowed 107 hits and 37 walks while recording 147 strikeouts. Tolle has surrendered 15 home runs and has allowed 24 fewer hits than innings pitched. His strikeout total is also 40 higher than his hits allowed.

Baltimore Orioles - Kyle Bradish

Kyle Bradish is 7-12 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through 148 innings. The right-hander has allowed 146 hits, 64 walks and 17 home runs while recording 137 strikeouts. Bradish has worked deeper into the season with 148 innings, while his 64 walks have contributed to the 1.42 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Game Pick

• Boston Red Sox

Boston is the pick after winning the first two games of this series and allowing only five combined runs. The Red Sox also have the stronger starting numbers, with Payton Tolle posting a 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Boston ranks eighth in MLB pitching with a 3.67 ERA, compared with Baltimore's 4.18 mark. The Red Sox are 42-31 away, while Baltimore is 34-36 at home. With Boston holding the better pitching profile and current series results, the Red Sox are the play Sunday.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Over/Under Pick

• Under

Friday's 1-0 result showed how quickly scoring can fall when the pitching settles in, and Sunday's starting numbers point toward another lower-scoring game. Payton Tolle owns a 3.23 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP, while Kyle Bradish has a 4.01 ERA across 148 innings. Boston has allowed only one run in its last game, and Baltimore has scored 14 runs across its last five. With Tolle's strikeout numbers supporting Boston's stronger staff, under is the pick for Sunday's series matchup.