Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday, July 12, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Boston Red Sox visit the New York Mets on Sunday at 1:40 PM ET at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Boston enters with a 44-48 record and sits fourth in the AL East, while New York is 40-55 and remains fifth in the NL East. The Red Sox have won seven straight games, including a 6-2 victory in Friday's series opener, while the Mets had won four of five before dropping the opener. Boston will hand the ball to rookie left-hander Payton Tolle, while New York has not yet announced a starting pitcher. Build your bankroll with our free MLB picks.
Boston Red Sox Looking to Extend Their Seven-Game Winning Streak
Boston has played its best baseball of the season over the past week. The Red Sox rank 13th in MLB with a .245 team batting average while scoring 378 runs on 754 hits. They have added 83 home runs with a .315 on-base percentage and a .389 slugging percentage. Willson Contreras has led the offense with a .285 batting average, 20 home runs, and 61 RBI despite serving a suspension. Ceddanne Rafaela owns a team-high 94 hits, Wilyer Abreu is batting .266 with 11 home runs, and Jarren Duran continues to provide speed at the top of the lineup.
The Red Sox have also received strong pitching all season. Boston ranks seventh in Major League Baseball with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .239 batting average. The pitching staff has recorded 768 strikeouts and consistently kept games under control, allowing the offense to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Injuries: Nick Sogard, Willson Contreras, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Connelly Early, Ranger Suárez.
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New York Mets Looking to Bounce Back at Home
The Mets have struggled to find offensive consistency throughout the season. New York ranks 25th in MLB with a .235 batting average while scoring 396 runs on 752 hits. The club has hit 111 home runs with a .304 on-base percentage and a .384 slugging percentage. Juan Soto continues to lead the lineup with a .297 batting average, 21 home runs, and 51 RBI. Bo Bichette has collected a team-high 97 hits, Carson Benge is batting .269 with 11 home runs, and A.J. Ewing has provided solid production in limited action.
Pitching has also been inconsistent for the Mets. New York ranks 20th in MLB with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .239. The staff has recorded 851 strikeouts but has issued 336 walks and has struggled to prevent scoring in key situations. The Mets need a strong outing from whichever starter gets the call if they hope to avoid another home defeat.
Injuries: Dedniel Núñez, Luis Robert Jr., Justin Hagenman, Austin Warren, Marcus Semien.
Pitching Matchup
Boston Red Sox – Payton Tolle
Tolle is 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 80.1 innings this season. He has allowed only 62 hits while striking out 80 batters and walking 24. The rookie has consistently limited baserunners and has developed into one of Boston's most dependable starters.
New York Mets – Undecided
The Mets had not announced a starting pitcher at the time of publication. Regardless of who takes the mound, New York will need a quality performance after allowing six runs in the series opener..
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets Game Pick
- Boston Red Sox
Boston enters with the hotter lineup, the more dependable pitching staff, and a significant advantage with Tolle on the mound. The Red Sox have won seven straight games and continue to receive balanced production from both the offense and pitching staff. With the Mets still without a confirmed starter and Boston playing its best baseball of the season, the Red Sox have the stronger overall matchup and are the better pick to complete another series victory.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets Over/Under Pick
- Under
The under is the stronger play because Boston has relied on quality pitching throughout the season, and Tolle has been one of the club's most consistent starters. The Mets have struggled to produce offense consistently outside of Soto, while Boston's pitching staff ranks among the American League's best. Even if the Red Sox win the matchup, expect their pitching to control the outcome and the total to cash under.
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