Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for AL Wild Card Game 3, Thursday, October 2, 2025
Use Code WWWC The regular season is in the rearview mirror and the postseason brings another chapter in a bitter rivalry between AL East rivals as the Boston Red Sox take on the New York Yankees in Game 3 of their best of three AL Wild Card Series Thursday evening and we have you covered with our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction. In the opening game of the series Tuesday night, Boston drew first blood with a 3-1 victory. This article was published prior to the conclusion of Game 1 of the series at Yankee Stadium Tuesday evening. Which team prevails and moves on to the AL Division Series against Toronto? This article was published prior to the conclusion of Game 2 of the series at Yankee Stadium Wednesday evening. Read more about this Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction! Don’t go down on strikes! Increase your bankroll with our MLB Betting Picks!
Boston Looking to Advance
Boston took the opening game of this series by rallying against the Yankees’ bullpen Tuesday night. The Red Sox look to close the door on the Bronx Bombers here and advance to the AL Division Series. On Tuesday night, Boston banged out eight hits with Nick Sogard (run), Trevor Story (run) and Alex Bregman (RBI) each recording a pair. Garrett Crochet (1-0) earned the win for the Red Sox as he threw 7.2 innings, allowing one run on four hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts. Aroldis Chapman threw 1.1 scoreless innings, allowing three hits with no walks and two strikeouts, for his first save of the postseason.
With Lucas Giolito injured, the Red Sox haven’t named a starter officially, but the expectation is that Connelly Early would get the ball for his first postseason start after making four regular-season starts. He was 1-2 with a 2.33 ERA, a 1.086 WHIP, four walks and 29 strikeouts over 19.1 innings of work on the year. Early took the loss in his last start, which came at home against the Tigers on Saturday. He threw five innings, allowing two runs on four hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in a 2-1 Red Sox defeat. In his last three starts, Early is 0-2 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.117 WHIP, three walks and 18 strikeouts over 14.1 innings of work. Early makes his first career start against the Yankees in this contest. As a result, this marks his first career outing at Yankee Stadium.
Yankees Try to Take Down Red Sox
New York was rolling for the first six innings in Game 1 of the series but their bullpen blew the lead and ultimately, the game, Tuesday night. The Yankees try to advance their way to the AL Division Series against Toronto but they have their work cut out for them here. In Game 1, New York had seven hits with Anthony Volpe (run, RBI), Paul Goldschmidt and Aaron Judge each picking up a pair. Volpe (his first) went deep in the game for the Yankees, who went one of seven with runners in scoring position. Max Fried threw 6.1 innings, allowing no runs on four hits with three walks and six strikeouts, but didn’t factor in the decision. Luke Weaver (0-1) took the loss in relief as he allowed two runs on two hits with one walk and no strikeouts without retiring a hitter.
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Cam Schlittler gets the call for the Yankees here for his first postseason start after making 14 regular-season starts. He is 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.219 WHIP, 31 walks and 84 strikeouts over 73 innings of work. Schlittler earned the win in his last start, which came against the Orioles at home Saturday. He threw seven scoreless innings, allowing two hits with one walk and nine strikeouts in a 6-1 Yankees win. In his last three starts, Schlittler is 1-0 with a 2.65 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, seven walks and 21 strikeouts over 17 innings of work. Schlittler makes his first career start against the Red Sox in this contest. He makes his ninth career start at Yankee Stadium in this contest. Schlittler is 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA, a 1.315 WHIP, 17 walks and 47 strikeouts over 40.1 innings of work in those outings.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Pick
Moneyline Pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees
- Red Sox (4 units)
This matchup is going to be interesting as a pair of young arms high in potential and low in big-league experience square off with each team’s respective seasons hanging in the balance. Both arms were good in limited big league innings and averaged better than a whiff per frame on the year. With that in mind, the leash on both guys isn’t going to be long in a winner-take-all all scenario. That means you have to lean on the bullpen that you have the most faith in at this stage of the season. We saw the Yankees waste Fried’s start in the opener and it’s tough to trust anyone in that New York relief corps. Give the edge to the Red Sox as they pull it out late here.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees
- Under (4 units)
Boston went into Wednesday having seen the under post an 83-76-4 mark in their 163 games this season. The Red Sox are 7th in the majors in runs per game with 4.84 on the season and they have an average total of 8.99 runs per contest. On the road, Boston averages 4.80 runs per game and has an average total of nine runs per game away from Fenway Park. New York has seen the under hit in 82 of their 163 games, with five pushes, this season entering Wednesday. The Yankees are first in the majors by averaging 5.21 runs per game, though they allow 4.22 runs per game, giving them an average of 9.43 runs per game. New York puts up five runs per game at home, while allowing 3.99 runs per game, giving them an average total of 8.99 runs per contest. With so much at stake, every at-bat is crucial, but runs are at a premium. Take the under here again, as it’s tough to see big offensive numbers in the postseason, especially with the stuff the starters have.
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