Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees, Wild Card Game, Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Use Code WWWC The regular season is in the rearview mirror and the postseason brings another chapter in a bitter rivalry between AL East rivals as the Boston Red Sox take on the New York Yankees in Game 1 of their best-of-three AL Wild Card Series Tuesday evening and we have you covered with our Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction. Boston closed the regular season with a 4-3 win over Detroit in the rubber game of a three-game set at home Sunday. New York swept Baltimore at home over the weekend to close the regular season, prevailing 3-2 in the series finale on Sunday. In the season series, the Red Sox held a 9-4 advantage, though the Yankees took two of three on the road in the most recent series between the teams, September 12-14. Read more about this Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction! Don’t go down on strikes! Increase your bankroll with our MLB Betting Picks!
Red Sox Looking to Draw First Blood
Boston took two of three from Detroit to close the season, clinching a wild card berth on Friday with their victory in the opening game of this season. After sitting 42-44 at the end of June, Boston went 47-29 the rest of the way to finish the year 89-73 and third in the AL East, five games behind the Yankees and Blue Jays for the top spot. Against Detroit Sunday, Boston finished with seven hits as Ceddanne Rafaela was the lone player with two. David Hamilton (his sixth) and Masataka Yoshida (his fourth) each went deep in the victory. Jose De Leon (1-0) earned the win as he threw 6.2 innings, allowing three runs on eight hits with three walks and eight strikeouts. Grant Weissert worked a scoreless ninth, allowing one hit with one walk and two strikeouts, for his fourth save.
Garrett Crochet gets the ball for Boston here as he logs his first start of the postseason in this contest after making 32 starts in the regular season. He is 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA, a 1.028 WHIP, 46 walks and 255 strikeouts over 205.1 innings of work on the year. Crochet earned the win in his last start, which came against the Blue Jays on the road on Wednesday. He threw eight innings, allowing no runs on three hits with no walks and six strikeouts in a 7-1 Boston triumph. In his last three starts, Crochet is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, four walks and 27 strikeouts over 20 innings of work. Crochet makes his eighth career appearance, fifth start, against the Yankees in this contest. He has a 3-0 record with a 2.90 ERA, a 0.871 WHIP, five walks and 45 strikeouts over 31 innings of work against them. Crochet is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA, a 0.933 WHIP, two walks and 22 strikeouts over 15 innings in four career appearances, two starts, at Yankee Stadium.
New York Trying to Take Advantage of Home Field
New York was in playoff position all season and closed the season winning 11 of 12, including their final eight, after sweeping Baltimore over the final weekend. Their strong finishing kick helped erase a five-game deficit in the AL East as late as September 16, but Toronto’s win Sunday left the teams tied for the top spot with 94-68 marks. New York lost the season series with the Blue Jays 8-5 so that leaves them in the wild card round. Against Baltimore, New York finished with six hits as Ben Rice (two runs, two RBI) was the lone player with two. Rice (his 25th and 26th) homered twice in the game for the Yankees. Luis Gil threw five innings, allowing two runs on three hits with two walks and two strikeouts, but didn’t factor in the decision. Devin Williams (4-6) earned the win in relief with a scoreless eighth, allowing one hit with no walks or strikeouts. David Bednar worked a scoreless ninth, allowing no hits with one walk and two strikeouts, for his 27th save.
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Max Fried gets the ball for the Yankees as he logs his first start of the postseason in this contest following 32 regular season outings. He is 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.101 WHIP, 51 walks and 189 strikeouts over 195.1 innings of work on the year. Fried earned the win in his last start, which came against the White Sox at home Wednesday. He threw seven innings, allowing one run on four hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in a game the Yankees went on to win 8-1. In his last three starts, Fried has a 3-0 record with a 1.40 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, five walks and 26 strikeouts over 19.1 innings of work. Fried makes his sixth career start against the Red Sox in this contest. He is 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA, a 1.253 WHIP, 10 walks and 40 strikeouts over 30.1 innings of work against them. Fried is 9-2 with a 2.32 ERA, a 1.052 WHIP, 26 walks and 92 strikeouts over 97 innings of work in 16 career starts at Yankee Stadium.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Pick
Moneyline Pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees
- Red Sox +115 (4 units)
While the Yankees were sizzling in the final two weeks of the regular season, a closer look shows they were facing some of the dregs of the league. New York’s last 13 games involved seven with the Orioles, along with three each against the Twins and White Sox. None of those teams won more than 75 games or finished better than fourth in their respective divisions. In their most recent game against a playoff team, they lost in the finale of a three-game set to Boston. The starting pitcher for the Red Sox that night was Crochet, who has won four straight starts and is unbeaten in his last eight. We’ve seen the Yankees be up and down this season, while Boston has been playing solid ball over the last three months. Crochet outduels Fried and delivers a win for the Red Sox.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Yankees
- Under 7.5 (4 units)
Boston went into Tuesday having seen the under post an 82-76-4 mark in their 162 games this season. The Red Sox are 7th in the majors in runs per game with 4.85 on the seaso,n and they have an average total of 9.02 runs per contest. On the road, Boston averages 4.83 runs per game and has an average total of 9.06 runs per game away from Fenway Park. New York has seen the under hit in 81 of their 162 games, with five pushes, this season entering Tuesday. The Yankees are first in the majors by averaging 5.24 runs per game, though they allow 4.23 runs per game, giving them an average of 9.47 runs per game. New York puts up 5.05 runs per game at home, while allowing four runs per game, giving them an average total of 9.05 runs per contest. With two aces on the bump here and postseason baseball leading to low-scoring affairs, take the under here.
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