Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s an American League East divisional battle on Sunday, Sept. 21. Read our Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction along with our other MLB Predictions to beat the sportsbooks! The Red Sox are fighting for a wild-card spot as they have a one-game lead over the field. Boston has won four of their last six games coming into this one. Tampa Bay is already eliminated from playoff contention as they have struggled over the past few weeks, losing 11 of their last 15 games. The Red Sox are set to start Connelly Early, while the Rays turn to Joe Boyle for the start. The first pitch between the two teams is set for 7:35 P.M. EST.
Boston holding on to final wild card spot
Boston is 85-70 overall this season. They are in third place in the American League East division. The Red Sox are four games back of the Blue Jays for the top spot in the division. They have the second spot in the American League wild card. They have a one-game lead over the Guardians and Astros for a playoff spot. They have a 39-38 record when playing on the road. The Red Sox have won four of their last six games coming into this matchup. In their last game, the Red Sox defeated Tampa Bay 6-3 on Saturday, Sept. 20.
Connelly Early gets the start for the Red Sox in this game. The left-handed pitcher is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA in two starts. His last appearance saw him throw 5.1 innings against the Athletics on Sept. 16. He allowed one run and five hits in a 2-1 loss. Early’s two pitching performances have come against the Athletics so far this year. In 21 games, Early had a 2.60 ERA when pitching in the minor leagues.
The Red Sox are hitting .254 this season, which ranks fifth-best. They are ranked sixth in runs scored and fifth in hits. Boston has the 12th most home runs, while they rank eighth-worst in strikeouts. Boston is hitting .245 on the road and .250 since the All-Star break. The Red Sox have a .270 batting average in September, too. In 10 games, the Red Sox have a .228 batting average versus the Rays.
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Tampa Bay looking to avoid the sweep
Tampa Bay is 75-80 overall this season. They are in fourth place in the American League East division. The Rays are 14 games back of the division lead and nine games out of a wild card spot. Tampa Bay has been eliminated from playoff contention. The Rays have lost 11 of their last 15 games going into this matchup. In their last game, the Rays lost 6-3 to the Red Sox at home on Saturday, Sept. 20.
On Sunday, Joe Boyle gets the start for the Rays. The right-handed pitcher is 1-3 with a 4.64 ERA in seven starts and four relief appearances. His last appearance saw him throw six innings against the Blue Jays on Sept. 15. He allowed zero runs and three hits in a 2-1 loss to Toronto. Tampa Bay is 4-7 when Boyle has pitched this season. He has a 2.16 ERA when pitching at home, but he has a 6.28 ERA in eight games since the All-Star break.
The Rays are hitting .252 this season, which ranks ninth best. They are the 14th-ranked scoring offense, while they rank ninth in hits. Tampa Bay is the 15th-ranked home run-hitting team and has struck out the 11th most times. Tampa Bay has hit .262 when playing at home and .241 since the All-Star break. They are having a really solid month, hitting .268 in September. But, they have a .228 batting average in 10 games versus Boston.
Red Sox vs Rays Picks
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Spread Pick
- Boston Red Sox -1.5 (5 units)
The Red Sox are looking to continue their strong play as they push towards the playoffs. They have won four of their last six games coming into this matchup. The Red Sox can sweep the series with a win on Sunday and they will with their batting average over .270 in September. The Rays are struggling, hitting under .230 against the Red Sox. Boston is in the wild card race and they have a lot to play for and they will be desperate for a win in this game, especially with Tampa Bay eliminated from playoff contention already.
Take Boston to cover
Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under Pick
- Under 8.5 runs (5 units)
This should be a low-scoring game between two solid starting pitchers. The Rays are set to start Joe Boyle, who has a 2.16 ERA at home. The Red Sox turn to Connelly Early in his third start, who had an ERA of 2.60 in the minors. The Rays are hitting under .230 when playing against the Red Sox. The struggles on offense for Tampa Bay will drive a low-scoring affair in a nighttime game.
Take the under on Sunday.
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