Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction and Picks - September, 19, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Boston Red Sox face the Tampa Bay Rays with both teams heading in opposite directions to close out the season. The Red Sox are 83-70 and are clinging to the final wild card spot in the American League while the Rays are 75-78 and are at the bottom of the American League East Division but have won back-to-back games. Who will win this game? Check out our Red Sox vs Rays prediction!
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Boston hopes Crochet and lineup help secure a postseason spot
The Red Sox are having a great season and look to secure a postseason spot in the final games of the season. Garrett Crochet will start the upcoming game, and he looks to wrap up a remarkable season as he’s allowed only 59 runs in 191 innings pitched while striking out 240 batters. Moreover, with a .220 expected opponent Batting Average, a 32.8 Chase Rate, and a 2.99 expected ERA, opponents are making minimal contact and struggling to drive in runs against Crochet this season.
Crochet has been incredible, but the lineup has stepped up as well, scoring 4.88 runs per game. Alex Bregman is slashing .272/.355/.465 with 17 home runs and 188 total bases, while Wilyer Abreu is slashing .253/.325/.486 with 22 home runs and 171 total bases but the rest of the batting order has stepped up as well. Jarren Duran is slashing .262/.337/.451 with 15 home runs and 262 total bases while Trevor Story and Carlos Narvaez have added 38 home runs and 412 total bases to round out the lineup.
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Rays hope Rasmussen helps out lineup
The Rays are having a rough season and hope to finish above the .500 mark at the very least. Drew Rasmussen has been one of the bright spots, allowing only 45 runs in 144 innings pitched while tossing 122 strikeouts. Moreover, with a .389 expected opponent Slugging Percentage, a 6.5 Barrel Percentage, and a 3.47 expected ERA, opponents are making weak contact and struggling to drive in runs against Rasmussen this season.
Rasmussen has been great, but the lineup has let the Rays down, scoring only 4.44 runs per game with only 11 runs in the last four games. Jonathan Aranda is slashing .316/.394/.478 with 12 home runs and 171 total bases while Yandy Diaz is slashing .316/.394/.478 with 24 home runs and 369 total bases, but the rest of the lineup has struggled. Only four active batters have an OPS+ over 100, and opposing pitchers can limit the top-heavy lineup as a result.
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction
Money Line Pick for Red Sox vs. Rays
- Red Sox (-125) (4 Units)
The Red Sox have their ace on the mound, and they look to secure a postseason spot with another strong performance. The Red Sox, who average 4.88 runs per game, should drive in runs at will with Alex Bregman, Jarren Duran, and the rest of the batting order making contact and putting together strong plate appearances. The Red Sox should limit the Rays lineup, which averages only 4.44 runs per game, with Garrett Crochet pitching multiple scoreless innings to hand the ball over to the bullpen with the lead. The Red Sox should win the game with a strong performance on the road.
Take the Red Sox money line as road Favorites.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Rays
- Under 7.5 (5 Units)
Both teams have great starting pitchers on the mound who look to make this game a low-scoring one from the first pitch. The Rays should limit the Red Sox lineup with Drew Rasmussen, who has allowed only 45 runs in 144 innings pitched, tossing multiple strong innings. The Red Sox should eliminate and potentially shut out the Rays, who have scored only 11 runs in their last four games, with Garrett Crochet, who has allowed only 59 runs in 191 innings pitched, tossing multiple scoreless innings with minimal contact and a surplus of strikeouts. The Under should cover in a low-scoring game with both starting pitchers stepping up.
Take the Under on 7.5 runs.
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