Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Thursday, September 25, 2025
Use Code WWWC Boston Red Sox (86-71) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (90-67)
The MLB playoff race reaches its pinnacle, and Thursday brings the highly anticipated showdown from Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, so we have prepared the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction to get you covered.
Boston and Toronto wrap up a three-game series at Rogers Centre. The Red Sox beat the Blue Jays 4-1 in the opener, while the middle game has been excluded from the analysis. Toronto opens as a -160 moneyline favorite for Thursday’s clash, while the total sits at 7.5 runs.
Now, let’s take a closer look at this Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction, one of our MLB picks for Thursday’s card. The first pitch at Rogers Centre is set at 7:07 PM ET.
The Red Sox are fighting for the wild card
The Boston Red Sox dominated the Blue Jays last Tuesday. Boston outhit Toronto 9-3 on the night, Lucas Giolito threw 4.2 frames of a one-run ball, and four relievers combined for 4.1 hitless innings. The Jays bullpen issued just one free pass, and Aroldis Chapman recorded his 32nd save of the season.
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It was Boston’s fifth win in eight games. During that stretch, the Red Sox have scored 39 runs on a .277/.346/.394 triple-slash, while their bullpen has recorded a 3.41 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Boston held the middle wild card on Wednesday morning, one game ahead of the Detroit Tigers and two games above the Houston Astros.
Brayan Bello is expected to toe the rubber at Rogers Centre on Thursday night. The 26-year-old right-hander is 11-8 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 27 starts and one relief appearance (161.2 innings pitched) this season. He’s struggled a bit lately, allowing 14 runs (13 earned) on 20 hits and nine walks over his previous four starts (20 IP).
Bello is 3-5 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 career starts against Toronto. He’ll meet the Blue Jays for the second time this term. Bello pitched six innings of a three-run, eight-hit ball in a 9-0 home loss against Toronto on June 27.
The Blue Jays are battling for the AL East title
The Toronto Blue Jays had an awful night at the dish last Tuesday. Kevin Gausman struggled, too, allowing four earned runs on nine hits and a walk, while four relievers combined for 3.1 hitless innings. Bo Bichette missed his 15th straight game due to a knee injury, and he’ll probably remain on the shelf for the rest of the regular season.
The Blue Jays have only won one of their previous six games. They’ve scored just 12 runs during that stretch. Over the last 10 days, the Blue Jays ‘pen has compiled a 4.62 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and a .270 batting average against. Toronto was topping the AL East on Wednesday morning, just one game ahead of the New York Yankees.
Shane Bieber is projected to get the starting call on Thursday. The 30-year-old right-hander carries a 3-2 record with a 3.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in six starts (35.1 IP) in 2025. Over his last two outings, Bieber has only allowed three earned runs on eight hits and two walks across 12.1 innings of work.
Bieber is 3-3 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in six career starts and one relief appearance against the Red Sox. He hasn’t met Boston since 2023, and the current Red Sox are 13-for-36 with five doubles against Bieber.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Pick
Moneyline Pick for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
- Toronto Blue Jays (5 units)
The Blue Jays know Brayan Bello very well. They are 38-for-130 with eight doubles and three home runs against Bello, who’s given up at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts.
Hereof, I expect the Blue Jays’ lineup to break out of its funk. Toronto has accounted for a .600 OPS and 67 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the past 10 days. Facing a familiar face will help, and you should keep your eyes on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.
Guerrero Jr. is 11-for-27 with four doubles and two home runs against Bello, while Springer is 10-for-28 with a double and a home run versus Boston’s righty. On the other side, Jarren Duran is 5-for-8 with four doubles against Shane Bieber, who’s slowly but surely building up his form.
Over/Under Pick for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
- Over 7.5 (5 units)
I’m a bit surprised by a 7.5-run line. The bullpens pitched lights out in the opener, but it doesn’t mean they will do the same in the closing contest of this series. The Blue Jays’ offense could easily get things going against Brayan Bello, and Bieber should allow a run or two.
Give me the over on the total. The stake is huge in this game, and I expect to see some runs down the stretch. Five of the previous eight encounters between Boston and Toronto have produced at least eight runs in total.
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