Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Picks - Tuesday, September 23, 2025
With only six regular-season games left, the Toronto Blue Jays (90-66) host the Boston Red Sox (85-71) in a crucial AL East matchup. Toronto holds a 7-3 head-to-head advantage this year, including a 2-1 edge at home.
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Holding on in Wild Card race
The Red Sox enter this series clinging to the second AL Wild Card spot, with both Cleveland and Houston just one game behind. After this set, they’ll host Detroit in another pivotal series.
Boston has dropped six of its last 10 games, including a 7-3 loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Lucas Giolito (10-4, 3.46 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) will take the mound. He’s fared well against Toronto this season, going 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA across two starts.
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Offensively, Boston ranks fourth in MLB in batting average and 11th in home runs. Trevor Story continues to lead the charge with 25 home runs and 95 RBI.
First in AL East, but not by much
Toronto has already secured a postseason berth but still needs wins to hold off the Yankees, who trail by just two games in the AL East. The Jays have been dominant at home, posting a league-best 50-25 record, and snapped a four-game skid with an 8-5 win over Kansas City on Sunday.
The Blue Jays rank first in MLB in batting average (.267) and are tied for 11th in home runs. George Springer (30 HR, 80 RBI), Bo Bichette (18 HR, 94 RBI), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (23 HR, 83 RBI) anchor a deep lineup.
Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) gets the start. He was outstanding in his lone appearance against Boston this season, tossing eight innings of one-run ball (unearned).
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Prediction
Moneyline Pick for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
- Toronto Moneyline (4 units)
Both teams are desperate for wins—Toronto chasing a division title and Boston fighting to keep its Wild Card lead. The Blue Jays have been elite at home, winning four of their last five against Boston, and also rank as MLB’s most profitable home team for bettors. While Boston has been solid on the road, the edge lies with Toronto.
Total Pick
- Under (4 units)
Despite the offensive talent on both sides, this projects as a pitcher’s duel. Giolito owns a 2.48 ERA over his last five starts, while Gausman has been even sharper with a 1.75 ERA in that span. With Monday’s rest giving both bullpens a reset, the playoff-like intensity should keep scoring in check.
