Brewers at Twins Picks and Prediction for Sunday May 17 2026
Use Code WWWC Milwaukee (26-17) will look to complete the road sweep when they wrap up a three-game set against Minnesota (20-26) at Target Field on Sunday afternoon at 2:10 PM ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Brewers vs. Twins prediction. Don't go down on strikes! Get our top MLB Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Robert Gasser, 0-1, 6.00 ERA, will get the start for the Brewers. The Twins will counter with Bailey Ober, 4-2, 3.46 ERA.
Brewers Looking To Complete The Sweep
The Brewers are coming off a 5-1 homestand that featured a three-game sweep of the Yankees and a 2-1 series against the Padres, and Milwaukee is now 26-17 on the season. Back-to-back tight wins in Games 1 and 2 of this series have the Crew in position to sweep a division rival on the road for the second consecutive week.
As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.35 team ERA that ranks third in baseball, including a 3.27 starter ERA that ranks fourth and a 3.44 bullpen ERA that ranks seventh. They've struck out 402 batters, fourth in MLB, over 365 1/3 innings.
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Offensively, the Brewers are led by Brice Turang, who is hitting .298/.422/.511 with six homers, 10 doubles, 27 RBI, 33 runs, and eight steals this season. Jake Bauers adds six homers, and other key contributors include William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, and Jackson Chourio.
Gasser was recalled from Triple-A Nashville to start in place of Brandon Woodruff, who was placed on the injured list with a lat strain. The 26-year-old southpaw attacks hitters with two distinct low-90s fastballs, a sweeper, a changeup, and a seldom-thrown cutter, getting by on depth of arsenal and pitchability rather than loud stuff. He allowed three runs in his lone start of 2026 across three innings, and figures to be on a relatively short leash with Milwaukee's deep and capable bullpen ready behind him.
Twins Trying To Avoid The Sweep
The Twins' 20-26 record has them near the bottom of the AL Central, and their bullpen has been historically bad, ranking 29th out of 30 MLB teams in ERA at 5.83 and dead last in batting average against at .276. Minnesota has been competitive in this series thanks to quality outings from their young starters, but squandered opportunities at the plate have cost them both games.
Byron Buxton leads Minnesota's offense with 15 home runs this season, hitting .260/.319/.580 over 40 games. Austin Martin has quietly been one of the better hitters for the Twins, batting .333/.454/.429 over 38 games.
Despite his overall production, Buxton has struggled immensely with runners in scoring position this season, mustering just one hit in 25 at-bats in those situations.
Ober is coming off a complete game shutout against the Marlins in which he threw just 89 pitches, allowed just two hits and no walks, and struck out seven in a 3-0 win. His 3.46 ERA and 3.84 FIP this season represent a significant improvement over his 5.10 ERA from 2025, and he enters Sunday as the most established and recently dominant starting pitcher of anyone in this series. In his only two career starts against Milwaukee, both in 2023, Ober totaled 11 innings with four runs allowed and 10 strikeouts, picking up a win and a no-decision.
Brewers vs. Twins Picks
Money Line Pick for Brewers vs. Twins
- Minnesota Twins ML (4 Units)
The Twins get the edge here because they have a clear and significant pitching advantage with Ober riding the best stretch of his 2026 season. His complete game shutout off just 89 pitches showed a pitcher with elite command and efficiency, and he profiles as someone who can go deep into Sunday's game without relying on Minnesota's dreadful bullpen. Gasser is a capable arm with a Tommy John recovery behind him, but his one start this season lasted just three innings and he will be making his first career appearance against Minnesota with limited big-league reps under his belt in 2026. The Twins' bullpen has been a disaster all season, but the beauty of Ober's form right now is that he takes that concern almost entirely off the table. Minnesota is also due for a bounce-back after being held to two runs in each of the first two games. Take the Twins on the money line.
Over/Under Pick for Brewers vs. Twins
- Under 7.5 (4 Units)
The first two games of this series went 3-2 and 2-1, perfectly reflecting how these two pitching staffs have operated all series. The Brewers' team OPS of .695 ranks 19th in baseball and their home run total of 27 is last in MLB, making them a contact-dependent offense unlikely to blow up a pitcher working with Ober's efficiency. Buxton's one hit in 25 at-bats with runners in scoring position further caps Minnesota's ceiling even when they put traffic on the basepaths. With Ober likely working deep and the Brewers' offense struggling to generate power, this has all the makings of another quiet afternoon at Target Field. Take the Under.
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