Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers, Game 1, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Chicago Cubs open the best-of-five National League Division Series on the road Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs beat San Diego 3-1 on Thursday to clinch their NL wild card series 2-1. Milwaukee won the National League Central and finished with the best record in the league; therefore, the Brewers avoided the wild card series. Chicago will play without four pitchers and catcher Miguel Amaya. Milwaukee will play without eight pitchers as well as position players Garrett Mitchell, Dylan O’Rae, and Ramon Rodriguez. Make sure to read this in-depth Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction. Chasing wins? Get the edge with our MLB picks for the Chicago Cubs vs. the Milwaukee Brewers prediction right now.
Chicago’s pitching carried the Cubs to a Wild Card series win
The Chicago Cubs gave up just five runs across three games in the NL Wild Card series versus San Diego. The Cubs finished that series with a team ERA of 1.67 and 0.85 WHIP. Chicago's pitching held San Diego hitters to a batting average of .189 while giving up just 2 home runs in 27 innings pitched. The starting rotation pitched well, and the bullpen came in and shut down the tough San Diego lineup. As of the time this article was written, Chicago, as of Friday night, is expected to go with lefty Matthew Boyd, who is 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA.
At the plate, Chicago struggled at times during the series with San Diego, scoring just 6 runs and being shut out once. Carson Kelly was one of three Cubs players to homer in the series. Michael Busch hit .400 for the Cubs, and Nico Hoerner led the Cubs in hits with four. As a team, the Cubs batted .258 with a .404 slugging percentage. Ian Happ battled just .091, and six players each had one RBI for the Cubs.
Milwaukee finished the season with baseball’s best record
The Milwaukee Brewers produced at the plate and on the mound in 2025, finishing the regular season 97-65 for baseball’s best record. Milwaukee hitters were second in on-base percentage, third in both runs scored and batting average, while 12th in slugging percentage. Christian Yelich was the best overall hitter for Milwaukee, leading the Brewers in home runs (29) and RBI (109). Jackson Chourio was limited to just 131 games but hit 21 (2nd) home runs with 78 (3rd) RBI. Brice Turang was second in RBI with 81. The Brewers averaged just over one homer per game with 166.
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On the mound, the Brewers were second in ERA, 4th in batting average against, 9th in WHIP, and 24th in Quality Starts. The Brewers’ ace this season and a Cy Young contender is Freddy Peralta, who will start on the mound in Game 1 on Saturday. The right-hander led the Brewers in wins, ERA for starters, and strikeouts. Peralta finished the regular season 17-6 with a 2,70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts.
Cubs vs. Brewers Pick
Money Line Pick for Cubs vs. Brewers
- Milwaukee Brewers -150 (5 units)
Milwaukee finished the season in the top 12 of four hitting categories and in the top 9 of three pitching categories. Chicago struggled to score runs in the wild-card series with just six in three games, while being shut out once. The Cubs will face a Milwaukee pitching staff that is second in baseball in ERA at 3.58 and ninth in WHIP at 1.23. Milwaukee starting pitcher Freddy Peralta performed well in his final three starts, allowing four runs over 13 innings. In four games against the Cubs this season that Peralta started for the Brewers, Milwaukee won three. In the most recent appearance versus Chicago on August 18, Peralta gave up one hit and no runs in six innings with the Brewers winning 7-0. Boyd was awful in September, going 2-1 but with a 5.31 ERA, allowing 21 hits and five walks in 20.1 innings.
Over/Under Pick for Cubs vs. Brewers
- Under 7 (4 units)
Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta finished the season with a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The total finished under in four of the Brewers’ final five games in the regular season. The total finished under in each of Chicago’s three wild-card games with San Diego. The total has also finished under in two of the last three games head-to-head between the Brewers and Cubs.
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