Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 19, 2026

On Saturday, the Chicago Cubs visit the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET and televised on MLB.TV. Chicago is 85-68, second in the NL Central and 10 games behind Milwaukee with nine games remaining. The Cubs hold the first NL Wild Card position, 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia and two games ahead of San Diego. Cincinnati is 71-82, fifth in the NL Central and eliminated from playoff contention. The Reds lost 8-2 to the Dodgers on Thursday, while Chicago’s latest result was an 8-4 win over Atlanta on Wednesday. Here is a closer look before our free MLB picks.

Chicago Cubs Coming Off a Strong Win at Home

Chicago has alternated wins and losses across its last five games, going 3-2 during that stretch. The Cubs scored eight runs in Wednesday’s victory over Atlanta after losing 6-3 the previous night. Pete Crow-Armstrong has driven the offense with a .282 average, .375 on-base percentage and .581 slugging percentage, along with 44 home runs, 105 RBI and 37 stolen bases. Seiya Suzuki is batting .266 with 24 homers and 81 RBI, while Alex Bregman has a .264 average, 26 homers and 88 RBI.

The Cubs rank sixth in MLB batting with a .252 average and have scored 817 runs while hitting 211 home runs. Chicago also owns a .340 on-base percentage and .431 slugging percentage, creating a large statistical gap over Cincinnati’s offense. The pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .245 opponent batting average across 153 games. Chicago’s defense ranks first in MLB with a .990 fielding percentage and only 56 errors. The Cubs are 40-35 on the road and lead the season series against Cincinnati 7-3.

Injuries: Dansby Swanson (out), Gavin Hollowell (out), Justin Steele (out), Phil Maton (out), Hunter Harvey (out).

Cincinnati Reds Trying to Recover From a Rough Dodgers Series

Cincinnati has lost three of its last four games, with the offense held to two runs or fewer in each defeat. The Reds were beaten 8-2 by Los Angeles on Thursday after a 6-2 victory Wednesday. Elly De La Cruz remains Cincinnati’s top all-around hitter, batting .284 with a .362 on-base percentage, .517 slugging percentage, 28 home runs, 74 RBI and 26 stolen bases. Sal Stewart has supplied the biggest power numbers, hitting .271 with 32 homers and 109 RBI. Tyler Stephenson has added 15 home runs and 53 RBI.

The Reds rank 30th in MLB batting with a .230 average while producing 633 runs, 203 home runs, a .307 on-base percentage and .396 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching has also struggled, posting a 4.87 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while opponents are batting .254. The staff has issued 638 walks, another concern against a Chicago lineup with 643 walks and a .340 team on-base percentage. Cincinnati ranks 19th defensively with a .984 fielding percentage and 87 errors. The Reds are 37-41 at Great American Ball Park.

Injuries: Spencer Steer (out), Michael Toglia (out), Blake Dunn (out), Hunter Greene (out).

Pitching Matchup

Chicago Cubs - Matthew Boyd

Matthew Boyd is 8-5 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 114.2 innings. The left-hander has allowed 107 hits and 15 home runs while recording 89 strikeouts against 35 walks.

Cincinnati Reds - Nick Lodolo

Nick Lodolo is 3-5 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.49 WHIP over 96.2 innings. The left-hander has surrendered 102 hits and 19 home runs while striking out 79 and walking 42.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Game Pick

• Chicago Cubs

Chicago is the play with major advantages at the plate and a better starting-pitcher matchup. The Cubs have scored 184 more runs than Cincinnati while batting .252 with a .340 on-base percentage, compared with the Reds at .230 and .307. Boyd’s 4.16 ERA and 1.24 WHIP also compare well with Lodolo’s 5.12 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Chicago has already won seven of the first 10 meetings this season, and its 40-35 road record adds another positive factor for Saturday’s matchup.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Over/Under Pick

• Over

The play is over because Cincinnati’s pitching has allowed too many baserunners, while Chicago has one of MLB’s most productive offenses. The Reds have a 4.87 team ERA and 1.45 WHIP, and Lodolo has allowed 102 hits, 42 walks, and 19 home runs in 96.2 innings. Chicago has scored 817 runs with 211 homers and carries several proven power threats into Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati has also hit 203 home runs, leaving enough power on the other side for a higher-scoring game.