Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 20, 2026

The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds meet Sunday at Great American Ball Park, with the opening pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM ET and the game televised on MLB.TV. Chicago is 85-69, second in the NL Central and 11 games behind Milwaukee, with eight games remaining. The Cubs are tied with Philadelphia and San Diego for the three NL Wild Card positions. Cincinnati is 72-82, fifth in the NL Central and 24 games behind Milwaukee, with eight games remaining. The Reds have been eliminated from playoff contention and beat Chicago 6-4 on Friday. Check out our free MLB picks.

Chicago Cubs Trying to Rebound After a Road Loss

Chicago has split its last four games after Friday’s 6-4 loss in Cincinnati. The Cubs previously beat Atlanta 8-4 after dropping a 6-3 decision to the Braves. Pete Crow-Armstrong remains the centerpiece of the lineup, batting .280 with 44 home runs, 105 RBI, 115 runs and 37 stolen bases. He also owns a .372 on-base percentage and .576 slugging percentage. Seiya Suzuki is batting .265 with 24 homers and 83 RBI, while Alex Bregman has 26 home runs, 88 RBI and a .351 on-base percentage. Nico Hoerner has added a .263 average and 22 steals.

The Cubs are batting .252 with 821 runs, 1,329 hits and 212 home runs, ranking sixth in MLB batting. Chicago has also posted a .340 on-base percentage and .431 slugging percentage, with 647 walks and 107 stolen bases. The pitching staff carries a 4.21 ERA and 1.27 WHIP while holding opponents to a .245 batting average. Chicago ranks 18th in MLB pitching and has recorded 33 saves. Defense has been a major strength: the Cubs rank first in fielding with only 56 errors and a .990 fielding percentage.

Injuries: Gavin Hollowell (out), Justin Steele (out), Phil Maton (out), Hunter Harvey (out), Tyler Austin (out).

Cincinnati Reds Coming Off a Win Over Chicago

Cincinnati snapped a rough stretch with Friday’s 6-4 victory over Chicago. The Reds had lost three of their previous four, including an 8-2 defeat against the Dodgers. Sal Stewart has produced the biggest power numbers in the Cincinnati lineup, batting .271 with 32 home runs, 110 RBI and 85 runs. Elly De La Cruz is batting .287 with 28 homers, 74 RBI and 27 stolen bases while posting a .366 on-base percentage and .519 slugging percentage. Eugenio Suarez has added 24 home runs and 69 RBI, while JJ Bleday has 22 homers.

Cincinnati ranks 30th in MLB batting with a .230 average. The Reds have scored 639 runs while collecting 1,176 hits and 203 home runs, along with a .307 on-base percentage and .396 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching has also struggled, ranking 28th in MLB with a 4.87 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Opponents are batting .254 against the staff, which has allowed 203 home runs and issued 638 walks. The Reds rank 20th defensively with 87 errors and a .984 fielding percentage. Cincinnati is 38-41 at home.

Injuries: Spencer Steer (out), Julian Garcia (out), Michael Toglia (out), Blake Dunn (out), Hunter Greene (out).

Pitching Matchup

Chicago Cubs - David Peterson

David Peterson is 8-8 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.55 WHIP across 137.1 innings. The left-hander has allowed 151 hits and 62 walks while recording 124 strikeouts. Peterson has surrendered 14 home runs.

Cincinnati Reds - Rhett Lowder

Rhett Lowder is 6-11 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 124.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 138 hits, 51 walks and 18 home runs while striking out 98.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Game Pick

• Chicago Cubs

Chicago is the pick with a large advantage in season-long offensive production and a deeper lineup. The Cubs have scored 821 runs compared with Cincinnati’s 639 and hold sizeable advantages in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Neither starting pitcher has convincing numbers, with Peterson carrying a 5.11 ERA and Lowder sitting at 5.79. That places more weight on the offenses and bullpens. Chicago also owns MLB’s top fielding mark, while Cincinnati ranks 30th in batting and 28th in pitching, leaving the Cubs with several statistical advantages.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Over/Under Pick

• Over

The play is over in a matchup featuring two starters with ERAs above 5.00 and WHIPs above 1.50. Peterson has allowed 213 combined hits and walks in 137.1 innings, while Lowder has allowed 189 across 124.1 innings. Chicago has enough power to take advantage, with 212 team home runs and four regular hitters at 24 homers or more. Cincinnati has also hit 203 home runs despite its low team average. With both starters allowing frequent baserunners and each lineup carrying substantial home-run power, a higher-scoring game is expected.