Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction for Saturday September 5 2026

The Chicago Cubs visit the Miami Marlins on Saturday at loanDepot park, with the first pitch at 4:10 PM ET, televised on MLB.TV. Chicago is 79-62, second in the NL Central and eight games behind Milwaukee, while holding a Wild Card position. The Cubs are 2-3 over their last five after Thursday’s 2-1 win over Milwaukee. Miami is 71-70, third in the NL East and 12.5 games behind Atlanta. The Marlins are 3-2 over their last five after Thursday’s 7-3 loss at Kansas City and sit 2.5 games behind the final NL Wild Card position. Saturday’s starting matchup shapes our free MLB picks.

Chicago Cubs Bring One of the NL’s Stronger Lineups

Chicago ranks sixth in MLB batting average and has produced 753 runs, 1,220 hits and 198 home runs. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the lineup with a .280 average, 39 homers, 93 RBI and 152 hits while adding 32 stolen bases. Seiya Suzuki has added 24 home runs and 80 RBI with a .369 on-base percentage. Alex Bregman has 24 homers and 81 RBI, while Nico Hoerner is batting .260 with 22 stolen bases. The Cubs have several ways to create runs throughout the order.

Chicago is 38-31 away and owns a plus-132 run differential. The Cubs have scored 37 runs across their last five games, although 17 came in one victory over Milwaukee. Chicago’s pitching staff ranks 18th with a 4.18 ERA and has allowed 212 home runs, but its 1.26 WHIP has remained respectable. The Cubs have also recorded 44 quality starts. Chicago has alternated wins and losses across its last four games, with Thursday’s 2-1 result showing helping the Cubs with momentum.

Injuries: Jacob Webb is day-to-day, while Edward Cabrera, Shelby Miller, Gavin Hollowell and Tyler Austin are on the injured list.

Miami Marlins Stay in the Wild Card Race

Miami ranks ninth in MLB with a .248 batting average and has scored 615 runs with 144 home runs. Otto Lopez has been the lineup’s most consistent hitter, batting .302 with 166 hits, 62 RBI and 29 stolen bases. Heriberto Hernandez leads Miami with 23 home runs and has driven in 61. Kyle Stowers has 18 homers and 59 RBI, while Javier Sanoja is batting .287 with 108 hits. Miami has also stolen 146 bases, providing another way to create scoring chances.

The Marlins have played their best baseball at loanDepot park, posting a 42-27 home record compared with 29-42 away. Miami’s pitching has been another strength, ranking ninth in MLB with a 3.96 ERA and 1.25 WHIP while holding opponents to a .232 batting average. The Marlins have won three of their last five and scored at least six runs in each victory. Miami has a plus-18 run differential and remains within range of the final National League Wild Card position entering the weekend.

Injuries: Kyle Stowers is day-to-day, while Anthony Bender, Pete Fairbanks, Xavier Edwards and Max Meyer are on the injured list.

Pitching Matchup

Chicago Cubs - Clay Holmes

Clay Holmes is 6-6 with a 2.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 81.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed only 60 hits and four home runs while recording 63 strikeouts and issuing 27 walks. Holmes has limited hits well below his innings total and has kept the ball in the park throughout his workload. His 2.09 ERA is backed by a low hit rate, while the 1.07 WHIP shows his success limiting baserunners.

Miami Marlins - Ryan Gusto

Ryan Gusto is 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 67.2 innings. The right-hander has allowed 70 hits, 20 walks and eight home runs while striking out 57. Gusto has allowed slightly more than one hit per inning and has averaged fewer than one strikeout per frame. His walk total has remained manageable, but 90 combined hits and walks through 67.2 innings explain the higher WHIP.

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Game Pick

• Chicago Cubs

Chicago has the stronger overall case behind Clay Holmes, who owns a 2.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 81.2 innings. The Cubs are 79-62 with a plus-132 run differential and have scored 753 runs, compared with Miami’s 615. Chicago also has 198 home runs and several established run producers throughout the lineup. Miami’s 42-27 home record deserves respect, but Ryan Gusto has a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. With the better starter and deeper offense, the pick is Chicago to win Saturday in Miami.

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Over/Under Pick

• Under

Saturday’s starting matchup supports a lower-scoring result, led by Clay Holmes and his 2.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and four home runs allowed through 81.2 innings. Miami also owns a 3.96 team ERA, 1.25 WHIP and .232 opponent batting average. Ryan Gusto has a higher 3.86 ERA, but he has issued only 20 walks across 67.2 innings. Chicago scored just two runs Thursday, while Miami scored three. With both pitching staffs capable of limiting baserunners, under is the pick for Saturday afternoon in Miami.