Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday June 25 2026
Use Code WWWC The Cubs chase a four-game sweep at Citi Field as Matthew Boyd returns from the injured list against Freddy Peralta.
This preview breaks down the current lines, starting-pitching matchup, injury news, recent form, bullpen outlook, and top MLB player props for tonight's series finale.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: Chicago Cubs (-103) / New York Mets (-107)
Best Spread Odds: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+155) / New York Mets +1.5 (-179)
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Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-107) / Under 8.5 (-103)
Game Info
Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
Time: 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
TV: SNY, Marquee Sports Network
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Preview
The Chicago Cubs enter Thursday at 43-37 after sweeping Wednesday's doubleheader and winning the first six meetings between these teams this season.
Chicago opened the current series with a 9-6 victory Tuesday. The Cubs then won both ends of Wednesday's doubleheader by scores of 10-3 and 10-5.
The three games have produced 43 combined runs. Chicago has accounted for 29 of them while repeatedly taking advantage of New York's starting pitching, bullpen, and defensive mistakes.
Pete Crow-Armstrong established the tone Tuesday with a three-run home run during a five-run second inning. The blast extended his hitting streak to 11 games and his on-base streak to 24.
Dansby Swanson drove in four runs Tuesday before delivering a franchise-record 11 RBIs during Wednesday's doubleheader.
Swanson hit a three-run home run and grand slam in the afternoon game. He added an RBI single, RBI triple, and two-run single during the nightcap.
The shortstop has 15 RBIs through the first three games of the series after entering New York with only 31 across his first 73 appearances.
That production has transformed the lower half of Chicago's lineup. Opposing pitchers can no longer work carefully around Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, and the other established threats while expecting easy outs behind them.
Crow-Armstrong remains the most dangerous hitter in the lineup. He enters batting approximately .287 with 17 home runs and has gone deep six times across his last 10 games.
His speed also changes innings when he reaches without producing extra-base contact. New York committed six errors during Wednesday's second game, and Crow-Armstrong can turn another defensive hesitation into an additional base.
Busch has also contributed important power. His two-run home run tied Wednesday's afternoon game after Chicago fell behind 3-0.
The left-handed hitter receives the platoon advantage against Peralta. Busch can attack elevated fastballs and force the Mets starter to bring his breaking pitches into the strike zone after falling behind.
Alex Bregman gives Chicago another experienced middle-order bat. Citi Field's relatively accessible left-field dimensions suit his pull-side fly-ball profile.
Bregman does not require the entire lineup to remain hot around him. He can create scoring through walks, doubles, and controlled at-bats when Peralta's command becomes inconsistent.
Michael Conforto has also played an important role against his former team. His RBI double began Chicago's comeback during the opening game of Wednesday's doubleheader.
Nico Hoerner provides contact and speed near the top or middle of the lineup. He does not match Crow-Armstrong or Busch for home-run production, but he can extend innings and capitalize when New York fails to complete routine defensive plays.
Chicago has scored 59 runs across its last six games while going 5-1. That stretch includes the three victories over New York as well as productive performances against Colorado and Toronto.
The offensive surge has covered for a rotation dealing with significant injuries.
Edward Cabrera left Tuesday's game with a left hamstring and adductor injury. Cade Horton and Jameson Taillon are also unavailable, while Justin Steele remains sidelined following elbow surgery.
Boyd's return therefore arrives at an important time. Chicago needs innings, but his first appearance in nearly eight weeks may not provide a normal starter's workload.
The Cubs also used their bullpen throughout Wednesday's doubleheader. Javier Assad completed five innings in the opener, while Shota Imanaga recorded 5.1 innings during the nightcap.
Those starts prevented a complete bullpen collapse, but Chicago still required multiple relievers across the two games.
The relief staff has also struggled to prevent home runs during June. That weakness becomes important against a Mets lineup that produced several solo and two-run shots during the first three games.
Chicago cannot simply assume another early offensive lead will remain safe. New York has scored six, three, and five runs despite losing every game in the series.
The New York Mets enter Thursday at 34-46 after losing five consecutive games and seven of their last nine.
The Mets are last in the NL East and have fallen nine games behind the final National League wild-card positions.
Wednesday's doubleheader captured the broader problems surrounding the team.
New York built a 3-0 lead during the first game before allowing 10 unanswered runs. The Mets then committed six errors during the nightcap, their most in a game since 2014.
The defensive mistakes repeatedly gave Chicago additional outs and extra bases. A lineup as productive as the Cubs does not need that assistance.
New York's offense has still generated several encouraging individual performances.
Francisco Alvarez has homered in each of the first three games of the series. He drove in three runs Tuesday before adding another home run during Wednesday's opener and going deep again in the nightcap.
The catcher has only eight home runs for the season, but the current matchup has unlocked his pull-side power.
Alvarez also owns one home run in two career at-bats against Boyd. That is too small a sample to carry an entire handicap, but it reinforces the way his swing matches up against the returning left-hander.
Bo Bichette homered Tuesday and again Wednesday. His ability to attack left-handed pitching gives the Mets another important matchup against Boyd.
Bichette has produced more consistent power at Citi Field recently and should bat in a central run-producing position.
Francisco Lindor returned Wednesday after missing approximately two months. He went 0-for-5 during the nightcap but completed the game and should remain near the top of the lineup.
Lindor has extensive experience against Boyd. He owns 13 hits in 39 career at-bats against the left-hander, including two home runs.
The switch hitter can attack Boyd from the right side and target the left-field conditions expected to favour right-handed fly balls.
Juan Soto remains the largest lineup uncertainty. He left Tuesday's game with back tightness and did not play in either game Wednesday.
Removing Soto from the lineup costs New York its strongest combination of power, plate discipline, and on-base production.
His absence also allows opposing pitchers to attack the remaining order more aggressively. Boyd would face fewer consequences for pitching around Lindor, Bichette, or Alvarez if Soto is unavailable behind them.
Mark Vientos and A.J. Ewing homered during Wednesday's nightcap. Jared Young also went deep during the afternoon game.
Those performances demonstrate that the Mets still possess enough power to attack a returning pitcher and a homer-prone bullpen.
The challenge is sustaining offense across nine innings. New York has repeatedly depended on isolated home runs rather than long rallies built through consecutive quality plate appearances.
The Mets bullpen is another major concern after Wednesday's doubleheader.
Nolan McLean allowed six runs across six innings during the opener. New York then needed several relievers to finish the game.
The nightcap required another extended relief effort after the Cubs took control during the middle innings.
Brooks Raley allowed two runs during his inning Wednesday, while the rest of the relief group struggled to overcome the six defensive errors behind it.
New York's bullpen now enters the finale after consecutive games involving double-digit Chicago run totals.
The Mets need Peralta to pitch at least five or six innings. Another early exit would force an already taxed bullpen to cover the majority of the game.
Starting Pitchers and Pitching Matchup
The Cubs will activate left-hander Matthew Boyd, who enters at 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 31 strikeouts across 24 innings.
Boyd has made five major-league starts this season. His final appearance before the injury came May 3 against Arizona.
He allowed two runs across six innings during an 8-4 Chicago victory.
Three days later, Boyd tore the meniscus in his left knee while playing with his children. The injury required surgery and removed him from the rotation for nearly two months.
His rehabilitation was also interrupted by soreness in his left shoulder.
Boyd completed one final rehab start for Single-A South Bend last Saturday. He threw four scoreless innings and allowed only two hits.
That result was encouraging, but four minor-league innings do not guarantee that he is ready for 90 or 100 pitches against a major-league lineup.
Chicago may approach the game expecting approximately four or five innings from Boyd rather than a normal six- or seven-inning start.
His underlying strikeout and walk numbers have been considerably stronger than the 6.00 ERA.
Boyd has recorded 31 strikeouts while issuing only a small number of walks. His fielding-independent numbers suggest that several damaging innings distorted his surface ERA.
The left-hander has reached at least five strikeouts in four of his five starts.
He attacks with a four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup. The fastball can create swings above the strike zone, while the slider gives him a put-away pitch against left-handed and right-handed hitters.
New York owns enough right-handed power to make the matchup dangerous.
Lindor, Bichette, Alvarez, and Vientos can all attack Boyd from the right side. The expected wind direction also benefits right-handed hitters driving the ball toward left field.
Lindor represents the most experienced individual matchup. His .333 career average and two home runs against Boyd show that he can recognize the left-hander's sequencing.
Alvarez creates another power threat. He has homered in all three games of this series and has previously taken Boyd deep.
The Mets can also pressure Boyd by extending at-bats. A pitcher returning from knee surgery and shoulder soreness may be removed quickly if his pitch count approaches 75 or 80 before the fifth inning.
Boyd does not need to allow five runs for New York to create a favourable game state. Forcing him out after four innings would expose Chicago's bullpen for the final 15 outs.
The Mets counter with right-hander Freddy Peralta, who enters at 5-6 with a 4.83 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts across 85.2 innings.
Peralta's latest appearance was the worst start of his season.
Philadelphia scored 10 runs against him over 2.2 innings Saturday. Peralta allowed repeated hard contact and never established control of the strike zone.
The outing continued an uneven season in which his strikeout rate has remained useful but his command and home-run prevention have declined.
Peralta has allowed eight home runs across his last eight starts.
His fastball remains the foundation of the arsenal. He works above the strike zone and attempts to generate late swings underneath the pitch.
Peralta complements the fastball with a slider and changeup. When the fastball location is sharp, those secondary pitches can produce strikeouts below the zone.
The problems begin when he falls behind.
A walk or deep count forces Peralta to throw a more predictable fastball. Chicago has repeatedly turned those situations into multi-run innings during the series.
The Cubs have also seen Peralta extensively. Current Chicago hitters have generally struggled against him over a large career sample, but several individual bats have created damage.
Crow-Armstrong has five hits in 13 career plate appearances against Peralta, including a home run.
Ian Happ has poor overall numbers in the matchup, but he has also taken Peralta deep.
Carson Kelly homered against him during an earlier meeting this season.
Busch and Crow-Armstrong receive the platoon advantage from the left side. Conforto can also force Peralta to work carefully if he remains in the lineup.
Peralta owns a 9-4 record and 3.30 ERA across 23 career appearances against the Cubs.
That history prevents one poor start against Philadelphia from defining his entire projection.
His current form and the condition of the Mets defense remain difficult to ignore. Peralta can make a competitive pitch and still lose an out if New York repeats Wednesday's defensive mistakes.
Another abbreviated appearance would create a major structural disadvantage. The Mets cannot comfortably ask their bullpen to cover five or six innings after Wednesday's doubleheader.
Game Thesis: Chicago enters with the better lineup, stronger recent form, and a 6-0 record against New York this season. The Cubs are the preferred moneyline side, but Boyd's uncertain workload prevents them from becoming an overwhelming favourite. Peralta has historically pitched well against Chicago, yet his latest 10-run start and New York's exhausted bullpen create substantial downside. Both starters carry early-exit risk, both relief groups worked during Wednesday's doubleheader, and the first three games produced 43 runs. Those factors make Over 8.5 the strongest wager, with Chicago's moneyline and run line providing secondary positions.
Moneyline Pick: Chicago Cubs (-103)
Chicago is the preferred side at close to even money.
The Cubs have won all six meetings between these teams during the season. They have also outscored New York 29-14 through the first three games of the current series.
Chicago's lineup is creating damage from the top through the bottom.
Crow-Armstrong is producing an extended hitting streak and six recent home runs. Busch has supplied left-handed power, while Swanson has driven in 15 runs during the series.
The Mets cannot simply pitch around one dangerous hitter. Several different Cubs have already delivered decisive swings.
New York enters on a five-game losing streak and committed six errors Wednesday night.
The defensive performance is not guaranteed to repeat, but it reflects a team struggling to complete routine plays under pressure.
Peralta gives the Mets a path to ending the skid. His career record against Chicago is strong, and his strikeout ability can prevent the Cubs from putting every ball in play.
His latest start creates a serious concern. A pitcher coming off 10 runs allowed in 2.2 innings must immediately face one of baseball's hottest lineups.
Chicago's main risk is Boyd's workload. The Cubs may receive only four or five innings before turning to a bullpen that has struggled with home runs.
That concern keeps the moneyline close rather than making Chicago a substantial favourite.
The offensive and defensive advantages still favour the visitors. A projected 6-5 Chicago victory supports the moneyline.
Spread Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+155)
Chicago -1.5 provides a plus-money alternative built around another multi-run offensive performance.
The Cubs have won the first three games of the series by three, seven, and five runs.
Each game has followed a similar pattern. Chicago has forced the New York starter from the game, created traffic against the bullpen, and continued adding runs during the later innings.
The Mets' defensive problems increase the possibility of another crooked inning. Six errors in one game are unlikely to repeat, but New York has not played clean baseball throughout the losing streak.
Peralta's home-run problems also create separation risk. He has allowed eight homers over his last eight starts and now faces several hitters producing their best power stretch of the season.
Crow-Armstrong, Busch, Swanson, Happ, Bregman, and Conforto all have realistic extra-base potential.
The concern is Boyd. If the returning starter leaves after four innings, Chicago's bullpen must protect the margin for more than half the game.
New York has hit enough home runs during the series to erase a two-run deficit quickly.
The +155 return compensates for that volatility. Results such as 7-5, 6-4, or 7-4 support the Cubs run line.
⭐ Best Bet - Total Pick: Over 8.5 (-107)
Over 8.5 remains the strongest selection, but the reasoning requires more than simply repeating the scores from the first three games.
The series has produced totals of 15, 13, and 15 runs.
Chicago has scored at least nine in every game, while New York has contributed at least three each time.
Boyd enters with a 6.00 ERA and has not appeared in the majors since May 3.
His final rehabilitation start lasted only four innings. Chicago may remove him before facing the New York order for a third time.
That creates at least four innings of exposure to a Cubs bullpen that has allowed home runs at one of the highest rates in baseball during June.
Peralta carries a similar early-exit risk for a different reason.
He allowed 10 runs in 2.2 innings against Philadelphia and has surrendered eight homers over his last eight appearances.
The Mets bullpen then worked extensively during Wednesday's doubleheader.
Even an average five-inning performance from Peralta would leave New York requiring 12 outs from a tired relief group.
The weather also supports power. Temperatures should remain in the mid-70s, with double-digit wind speeds creating favourable conditions for fly balls toward left field.
That particularly benefits right-handed hitters such as Lindor, Bichette, Alvarez, Vientos, Swanson, and Bregman.
Soto's uncertain status reduces New York's offensive ceiling. Peralta's strong career history against Chicago also creates a path to a lower-scoring game if he immediately corrects his command.
Those risks prevent the Over from becoming automatic.
The combination of limited starter certainty, recent home-run production, bullpen workload, and favourable hitting conditions still supports nine or more runs.
Projected finals such as 6-5, 6-4, or 7-4 all clear the current number.
Top Player Prop Picks
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+113) Boyd has recorded at least five strikeouts during four of his five starts this season.
He enters averaging 6.2 strikeouts per appearance and has produced 31 across only 24 innings.
That strikeout rate demonstrates that the 6.00 ERA has not resulted from an inability to miss bats.
New York owns a strikeout rate above 22% and a whiff rate close to 25%.
Boyd's fastball and slider give him the necessary weapons to attack the Mets lineup from both sides of the plate.
His shorter expected workload is the largest concern.
Boyd may receive only four or five innings after returning from knee surgery and shoulder soreness. Reaching five strikeouts within that window requires efficient swing-and-miss production.
He has already demonstrated that type of rate during the season. Boyd has averaged more than one strikeout per inning.
New York's power hitters also carry strikeout risk. Alvarez, Vientos, Ewing, and several lower-order bats can produce damage when they connect but remain vulnerable to elevated fastballs and sliders below the zone.
The plus-money price is the key. Five strikeouts is a realistic result even if Chicago removes Boyd after approximately 75 pitches.
Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+340 at FanDuel) Crow-Armstrong enters as one of baseball's hottest power hitters.
He has homered six times across his last 10 games and went deep during Tuesday's series opener.
The centre fielder also owns five hits in 13 career plate appearances against Peralta, including one home run.
That matchup history produces an OPS above 1.100.
Peralta has allowed eight home runs during his last eight starts.
His elevated fastball can generate strikeouts, but it also creates fly-ball damage when the pitch falls closer to the middle of the zone.
Crow-Armstrong has shown the ability to drive velocity to every part of the field. He does not need to pull the ball directly into the expected wind direction.
His lineup position should also provide at least four plate appearances.
If Peralta leaves early, Crow-Armstrong will receive additional opportunities against a Mets bullpen carrying substantial workload from Wednesday's doubleheader.
The wager is naturally volatile. A home-run prop can lose even when the hitter produces a strong overall game.
The +340 price reflects that risk and provides meaningful value on a hitter whose current power run, pitcher history, and bullpen matchup all align.
Francisco Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+360 at FanDuel) Alvarez has homered in each of the first three games of the series.
He drove in three runs Tuesday and continued attacking Chicago pitching during both games Wednesday.
The catcher has only eight home runs for the season, meaning the current streak represents an unusually concentrated portion of his power production.
That can signal regression, but Thursday's matchup remains favourable.
Alvarez owns one home run in two career at-bats against Boyd.
The returning left-hander may also be operating without normal fastball command after nearly eight weeks away from major-league competition.
Alvarez can attack Boyd from the right side and drive the ball toward left field, where the wind conditions should be most beneficial.
Chicago's bullpen strengthens the later opportunities.
The relief staff ranks near the bottom of baseball in June home-run rate and should be required to cover several innings because of Boyd's expected restriction.
Alvarez is likely to receive at least one plate appearance against a right-handed reliever after Boyd exits.
The Mets may also move him higher in the order if Soto remains unavailable, creating another possible plate appearance.
Four consecutive games with a home run would represent an exceptional run, but the +360 price compensates for the low probability while reflecting Alvarez's current contact quality and matchup.
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