Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday June 23 2026
Use Code WWWC The Cubs and Mets finally try to start their three-game series at Citi Field on Tuesday night after rain washed out Monday's series opener. Chicago arrives at 40-37 having already swept the Mets earlier this year at Wrigley Field by an 18-9 combined margin, and the Cubs enter on a 6-3 run over their last nine games. New York limps in at 34-43 after dropping back-to-back games to the Phillies by a combined 25-11, the Mets pitching staff carrying the fourth-worst ERA in baseball over the last week. The pitching matchup is the central story. Edward Cabrera takes the ball for the Cubs against Kodai Senga in a rematch of an April 17 game the Cubs won 12-4 with the same pitcher pairing. The Mets are home favorites at -120, but every situational angle points the other direction. Set the rest of your slate with our complete MLB picks before the 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Chicago Cubs +102
- Total Pick: Over 8.5
- Projected Final Score: Chicago 7, New York 5
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Market | Chicago | New York |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Opening) | +108 | -128 |
| Run Line (Opening) | -1.5 (+170) | +1.5 (-205) |
| Total (Opening) | Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110) |
Current Odds
| Market | Chicago | New York |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Current) | +102 | -120 |
| Run Line (Current) | -1.5 (+162) | +1.5 (-197) |
| Total (Current) | Over 8.5 (+102) | Under 8.5 (-124) |
Line Movement - Run Line
| Date | Time | Chicago RL | New York RL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | Current | -1.5 (+162) | +1.5 (-197) |
| 06/22 | Opening | -1.5 (+170) | +1.5 (-205) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | Current | 8.5 +102 | 8.5 -124 |
| 06/22 | Opening | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Cubs vs Mets Key Matchups and Handicap
Chicago Starting Pitcher: Edward Cabrera
Edward Cabrera takes the ball for the Cubs at 4-4 with a 5.21 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 61 strikeouts across 67.1 innings, numbers that look concerning but capture a profile with real upside when the command is sharp. The right-hander brings a high-spin fastball and a developing changeup that has generated strikeouts at a meaningful rate, and Cabrera's career trajectory has always been about command consistency rather than raw stuff. The recent profile has been the problem. Cabrera has allowed 15 earned runs across 13.1 innings since returning from the injured list, with a five-run, 4.1-inning outing against Colorado in his most recent start. The encouraging note is the April matchup with this same Mets lineup. Cabrera threw six innings of three-run ball at Wrigley Field on April 17, the start of a Chicago sweep that produced a combined 18-9 scoring margin. The Cubs have been victorious in his only moneyline-underdog start this year, and the betting profile of 6-5 against the spread across 11 starts is roughly neutral. Cabrera is the better pitcher in this matchup despite the ERA.
Mets Starting Pitcher: Kodai Senga
Kodai Senga has been one of the worst-performing starters in baseball this season. The Mets right-hander enters his start at 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 28 strikeouts and 17 walks across 24.0 innings, the kind of cumulative line that captures both his pre-injury struggles and his rough return to the rotation. Senga just came back from the injured list and allowed four runs across four innings in his return outing, with the velocity and command both clearly compromised. The April matchup with this same Cubs lineup was even worse. Senga allowed seven runs (six earned) across just 3.1 innings on April 17 in a 12-4 Chicago blowout, and there is no reason to expect a meaningfully different result tonight. The Mets are 1-5 against the spread in Senga's starts this season and have been upset in all four of the games in which Senga has been listed as the moneyline favorite. That favorite-fade pattern is the single cleanest pitcher-level angle on the entire board, and it points directly at the Cubs at plus money.
New York Lineup Outlook
The Mets enter the series in a meaningful offensive slump. New York scored just 11 runs across the two-game series against Philadelphia while surrendering 25, a stretch that captures both the pitching breakdowns and the inability of the lineup to compensate. Juan Soto remains the engine of the offense at .301 with 17 home runs and 38 RBI, and he has been the one consistent producer throughout the recent stretch. Marcus Semien has struggled at .219 with 61 hits and 65 strikeouts, and the contact rate around Soto has been the biggest concern for manager Carlos Mendoza. The Mets rank eighth in batting average over the last week at .266 but have produced the second-fewest extra-base hits over the same span, a discipline-without-damage profile that does not score enough runs to support struggling starters like Senga. The matchup against Cabrera has the potential to produce a higher-scoring response from the Mets lineup, but the underlying offensive trends have not been pointing the right direction.
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Cubs Lineup Edge
Chicago carries the better lineup top to bottom and enters this matchup with the hottest individual hitter on either side. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in the middle of a stretch that demands attention. He carries a 10-game hitting streak, going 20-for-42 with five home runs, four doubles and two triples in that span, and he has produced a hit in 22 of his last 23 games at a 40-for-97 clip. PCA is hitting .286 on the season with 83 hits, 16 home runs and 40 RBI across 290 at-bats, and the matchup against Senga is exactly the kind of plus-fastball, command-light starter he punishes. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki anchor the run-producing options around Crow-Armstrong, and the Cubs' team OPS of .738 holds a 69-point advantage over the Mets' .669 mark, the largest lineup gap in this series. Chicago ranks third in walks at 72 and fifth-fewest in strikeouts at 136, the kind of plate discipline that punishes a starter like Senga who has been issuing walks at a 17-in-24-innings clip.
Betting Trends - CHC and NYM
The market has moved toward the Cubs throughout the day, with the moneyline tightening from a +108 opener to the current +102 and the Mets compressing from -128 to -120. That move reflects exactly the pitcher-level matchup and the recent head-to-head history. The Cubs swept this Mets team at Wrigley Field earlier this year by a combined 18-9, including the same Cabrera-vs-Senga matchup that produced a 12-4 blowout. The Cubs are 11-11 (50 percent) as moneyline underdogs this season, and the Mets are just 26-25 (51 percent) as moneyline favorites overall and 20-24 when laying at least -120. The Senga-specific track record is the clearest single signal. The Mets have lost all four games in which Senga has been listed as a moneyline favorite. The Cubs at plus money in exactly this spot is one of the cleanest betting angles on the board tonight.
The total has moved a half run from 8 to 8.5, the kind of mid-day adjustment that reflects exactly the pitching profiles involved. Both starters have been struggling, both bullpens have been worked recently, and the recency of the April matchup between these exact pitchers produced a 12-4 result for 16 combined runs. The Mets and their opponents have hit the over in 34 of 76 games this season at a 45 percent rate, slightly below the league average, but the matchup-specific factors all point in the opposite direction. Senga has not gone five innings in any start this year, which puts the Mets' bullpen on the spot for at least four innings of relief work, and the Cubs lineup has shown the ability to score consistently when given the opportunity. The over at +102 is the cleaner side at the current pricing.
Key Injuries and Notes - CHC and NYM
The Cubs enter the series in essentially full health on the position-player side. Crow-Armstrong is fully available and on the hottest stretch of his career, Happ and Suzuki anchor the middle of the lineup, and Dansby Swanson remains in the rotation despite hitting just .183 on the season. The bullpen behind Cabrera benefits from the two unscheduled days off the team has had ahead of the road trip following the Sunday off day and the Monday rainout, which gives Chicago an unusually rested relief corps for the series opener. The biggest situational note is Cabrera's recent form, which has been the central concern about his outings since returning from the injured list. The combination of the rest and the matchup-specific April track record is the strongest argument for backing him in this spot regardless of the cumulative ERA.
The Mets are dealing with broader roster construction issues more than individual injury concerns. Senga is back from the IL but clearly not at full strength, the bullpen has been heavily used across the recent stretch with 21 runs allowed in the last two games against Philadelphia, and the offensive depth around Soto has been inconsistent. The lineup that produced just 11 runs across the Philadelphia series carries the same shape into Tuesday's matchup, and the matchup against Cabrera should provide a slightly better path to scoring than the high-end Philadelphia rotation did. The bigger Mets concern is the overall direction of the season. New York sits at 34-43 in a stretch where the season trajectory is starting to look uncertain, and the home environment at Citi Field has not historically provided the kind of advantage that flips coin-flip matchups in their favor.
ATS and Total Picks
- Moneyline Pick: Chicago Cubs +102 - The Cubs already swept this Mets team earlier in the year by a combined 18-9 with the same pitching matchup, Senga has been the worst-performing starter in baseball this year and is 0-4 specifically as a moneyline favorite, and Chicago carries the better lineup with the hottest hitter on either side in Crow-Armstrong. The plus-money price on the favorite-fade angle is the cleanest play on the board, and the line movement toward Chicago throughout the day confirms the underlying market read. Take the Cubs at +102.
- Total Pick: Over 8.5 - Senga has not gone five innings in any 2026 start, Cabrera has allowed 15 earned runs across his last 13.1 innings, both bullpens are vulnerable, and the April matchup between these exact pitchers produced 16 combined runs. The over juice has shifted to +102 on the new 8.5 number, but the matchup-specific factors all support a high-scoring game. Take the over.
Final Score Prediction
Chicago 7, New York 5. Senga struggles early as Crow-Armstrong continues his hot streak with a multi-hit night and the Cubs build a multi-run lead in the first three innings. Cabrera navigates traffic but holds the Mets to two or three runs across five innings, Soto and Lindor get the Mets close in the middle innings with a couple of timely hits, and the Cubs bullpen holds the lead through the back half. Chicago adds insurance runs late against the depleted Mets relief corps to seal a 7-5 road win that cashes the moneyline at plus money and pushes the total comfortably over 8.5. The Mets favorite-fade pattern in Senga starts continues to one of the most reliable angles in baseball.
How to Bet Cubs vs Mets
The Cubs moneyline and the over 8.5 are the two strongest plays on this game and they pair naturally inside a same-game parlay. A 7-5 Chicago road win is the script that cashes both tickets at the same time, and the alignment between the pitching profiles, the recent head-to-head history and the Senga-specific favorite-fade angle all point to that range of outcomes. The Cubs run line at +162 is also a reasonable lottery sprinkle for bettors confident in a multi-run Chicago win, but the moneyline at +102 is the cleaner play given the underlying matchup. The Mets favorite price is best avoided given the Senga track record this year.
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