Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 24 2026

Tonight's Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates picks begin with a close starting-pitching matchup and whether Chicago can reach the middle innings without trailing at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh has moved from about -119 to -122, while Chicago has shortened from +108 to +104. More importantly, the total has climbed from 8 to 8.5, reflecting greater respect for the scoring paths on both sides. Readers can also find more daily analysis in our MLB picks and predictions and MLB player props coverage.

Best Available Odds for Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates

• Moneyline: Chicago Cubs +104 | Pittsburgh Pirates -122
• Run Line/Spread: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+164) | Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-200)
• Total: Over 8.5 (-102) | Under 8.5 (-120)

Game Info

• Date: Friday, July 24, 2026
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EDT
• Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• TV: MARQ and SportsNet Pittsburgh
• Probable Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs Jared Jones

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

Chicago is 57-45 and has the stronger overall record, yet the Cubs are still receiving a plus price. That makes this less about choosing the better season-long team and more about deciding whether Pittsburgh's home setting and Jared Jones justify favorite status.

The Cubs have enough lineup depth to pressure Jones if they avoid expanding the zone. Their best route is to force a high pitch count, create traffic before two outs and prevent Pittsburgh from using its preferred late-inning matchups with a lead.

Pittsburgh enters at 53-50 and has played its best baseball at home. The Pirates also have a lineup that can punish Boyd when his fastball command drifts toward the middle of the plate. This is not a matchup where either starter has a large enough advantage to make the full-game side comfortable at a significant price.

The MLB betting trends support a higher-scoring interpretation. Pittsburgh's home games have leaned over, and Chicago has also produced more offense-related results on the road. The baseball explanation is straightforward: both starters carry ERAs a little above four, and neither bullpen should be asked to protect a one-run game for four full innings.

The half-run move on the total matters. Over bettors lost some value when the number rose to 8.5, but the price remains close to even money. The side has barely moved, reinforcing the view that this is essentially a toss-up.

Pitching Matchup

Matthew Boyd starts for Chicago with a 4.15 ERA. The left-hander can control a lineup when he gets early-count strikes, but his outings become vulnerable when hitters force him into fastball counts.

Boyd's first trip through the order is usually his cleanest window. Chicago's first-five position depends on him limiting walks and solo home runs, not necessarily dominating for seven innings.

Jared Jones counters with a 4.05 ERA and greater raw swing-and-miss ability. His challenge is efficiency. Chicago can make him work, and a rising pitch count would shorten the period in which Pittsburgh has the starting-pitching advantage.

That is why the first-five cushion is more appealing than backing Chicago for all nine innings. It isolates the relatively balanced starter matchup and avoids asking the Cubs bullpen to preserve a narrow late lead.

Game Thesis: The teams are closer than the favorite price suggests, and Chicago has enough offense to stay level through the starting-pitcher portion. A competitive first half can still develop into a higher-scoring finish once both bullpens become involved.

Best Bet - Chicago Cubs +0.5 First Five Innings (-150)

Chicago +0.5 through five innings is the best bet. The Cubs do not need to win the opening half; a tie cashes the wager, which is valuable in a matchup between starters separated by only a tenth of a run in ERA.

Boyd needs only to avoid the crooked inning, while Chicago's lineup has enough patience and power to produce against Jones. The first-five format also avoids the uncertainty of two bullpens in a game expected to stay close.

At -150, the half-run still provides useful protection against the most common tied first-five outcomes. A move to a much heavier price would make the full-game moneyline more appealing.

Moneyline Pick: Chicago Cubs (+104)

Chicago is the full-game side at a plus price. The Cubs have the better record, comparable starting pitching and enough offensive depth to challenge Pittsburgh throughout the order.

The risk is the Pirates' home-field performance and Jones' strikeout ceiling, but Chicago should not be an underdog by much in this matchup.

Total Pick: Over 8.5 (-102)

The over remains playable after the move from 8 to 8.5 because both teams have realistic paths to four or five runs. Neither starter is a shutdown arm, and the bullpens may need to cover the final four innings.

A 5-4 finish fits the side and total together without requiring either starter to collapse early.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 4