Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday May 25 2026
Use Code WWWC The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates renew their NL Central rivalry on Monday afternoon in a game where the betting market is screaming value for sharp bettors looking for the best MLB predictions. With Chicago limping in on an eight-game losing streak and Pittsburgh playing better baseball over the past week, this matchup features a tight moneyline, a manageable total, and a run line that could be the most attractive number on the board. Ben Brown gives the Cubs a real shot to stop the bleeding, but Pirates fans and contrarian bettors will see plenty to like as Pittsburgh hosts a team in serious offensive freefall.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Run Line Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5
- Total Pick: Under 8
- Projected Final Score: Cubs 4, Pirates 3
Odds and Line Movement
This is one of the tightest priced games on the slate, with Chicago listed as a slight favorite and Pittsburgh just behind on the moneyline. The total has shifted slightly on the juice between the over and the under, giving bettors a clear look at how the market is leaning as first pitch approaches.
Opening Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | -115 | Over 8 (-111) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -105 | Under 8 (-109) |
Current Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | -115 | Over 8 (-109) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -105 | Under 8 (-111) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Chi. Cubs | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 03:33:25PM | -115 | -105 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/24 | 06:44:07PM | 8-109 | 8-111 |
| 05/24 | 03:33:25PM | 8-111 | 8-109 |
Cubs vs Pirates Key Matchups and Handicap
Chicago enters this game at 29-24, sitting 2.5 games back in the NL Central, but the recent form is alarming. The Cubs are riding an eight-game losing streak and have dropped five straight against Milwaukee and Houston, with the offense looking lifeless during the slide. Pittsburgh sits at 27-26 and is 4.5 games back, but the Pirates have been the better team lately, winning three of their last five, including a 4-1 victory at Toronto and two strong wins over St. Louis.
The pitching matchup tilts toward the Cubs. Ben Brown enters at 1-2 with a sharp 2.09 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, 40 strikeouts, and just one home run allowed across 38.2 innings. He has been one of the most efficient arms in the league when on the mound, and against a Pittsburgh lineup that strikes out at a healthy clip, he has the profile to stifle this offense for six-plus innings.
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Carmen Mlodzinski has been more hittable for the Pirates, going 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing 53 hits over 50 innings. He gives up traffic, but he has also been resilient enough to keep Pittsburgh in games. The concern for Pittsburgh is whether his command holds up against a Cubs offense that, despite the recent slump, still has legitimate threats.
Offensively, Pittsburgh has the more dangerous current lineup. Brandon Lowe leads the Pirates with 13 home runs, a .260 average, and 32 RBI, while Oneil Cruz has chipped in 11 homers and 34 RBI of his own. Nick Gonzales has been a steady table-setter at the top of the order with a .308 average and .365 OBP, giving Pittsburgh a real run-producing structure.
For Chicago, Ian Happ has provided power with 10 home runs, but his .214 average reflects the broader inconsistency in the lineup. Nico Hoerner has been the most reliable contact bat, hitting .255 with a .342 OBP and a team-leading 31 RBI. The Cubs need their bats to wake up if they want to break this skid.
Betting Trends CHC vs PIT
The trends in this game tell two very different stories. Chicago’s eight-game losing streak, including five straight losses to Milwaukee and Houston, is a major red flag, especially for bettors thinking about laying -1.5 with the Cubs. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has won three of its last five with quality wins over Toronto and St. Louis, showing improved consistency at the plate and on the mound. Statistically the teams are close: Pittsburgh holds the edge in batting average (.251 to .238), runs scored (252 to 248), and team ERA (3.89 to 4.05), while both clubs carry an identical 1.23 WHIP. With Pittsburgh trending up and Chicago trending down, the run line value for the Pirates becomes hard to ignore.
Key Injuries and Notes CHC vs PIT
Injuries are a major factor for Chicago, with Matt Shaw on the 10-day IL, Jaxon Wiggins on the 7-day IL, and starters Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd both on the 15-day IL. That thins out the pitching depth significantly behind Ben Brown, which becomes a concern if the bullpen is asked to cover multiple innings late. Pittsburgh is also working through absences, including catcher Joey Bart, starter Jared Jones, and multiple relievers, which could come into play if Mlodzinski exits early and Pittsburgh has to lean on a depleted bullpen as well.
Cubs vs Pirates ATS and Total Picks
The smart play in this game is fading Chicago’s ability to win comfortably. The Cubs are in the middle of an eight-game losing streak and have not shown the offensive consistency needed to lay -1.5 against a Pittsburgh club playing better baseball. Pirates +1.5 captures the value of a tight game where Pittsburgh either wins outright or loses by a single run, and at the listed price the math is hard to argue with.
The total also leans toward the under. Ben Brown’s 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP indicate he can suppress run scoring deep into the start, and even with Pittsburgh’s power threats, the Cubs’ recent offensive struggles make it unlikely both teams reach the totals threshold. With both clubs sporting a 1.23 WHIP and team ERAs under 4.10, this game projects to play low.
- Run Line Pick: Pittsburgh +1.5
- Total Pick: Under 8
Final Score Prediction
Brown gives the Cubs the path to break their losing streak with a strong start, but the offense is unlikely to break out in a major way against Mlodzinski and the Pittsburgh bullpen. Expect Lowe and Cruz to make Brown work, and for the Pirates to keep this within a run heading into the late innings. A low-scoring, tightly contested game fits the under and gives Pittsburgh +1.5 real value at the listed number.
- Projected Final Score: Cubs 4, Pirates 3
How to Bet Cubs vs Pirates
This NL Central matchup is the kind of tightly priced game where bettors benefit from shopping for the best number and exploring different platforms. Traditional sportsbooks will offer the standard moneyline, run line, and total markets, but social sportsbooks have become a popular way for MLB fans to play games like this Cubs-Pirates contest without needing to deposit real money in many states. The +1.5 run line on Pittsburgh and the under 8 are exactly the type of plays that work well on social platforms, especially when bettors want to test out plays in a lower-pressure environment.
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